The "It's way too early to do this so let's do it anyway!" prediction game thread

Lisa's Booby Trap

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Lisa's Booby Trap

No she is a ghost horse

[GPK]

R Next Gem

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Zenyatta

Damn, I had under 3 posts in the pool..............................

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

That's one of two names I was wondering about... not as in my opinion but if they'd come up.

Her because of this...

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...havre-de-grace

... and the other is a horse who is pointed to the Foster...

She's a nice horse for sure....but HOY?
I mean is beating a horse like Switch and winning a race like the Apple Blossom really worthy of.......oh wait........

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Blind Luck (hoping they continue with her success and get by HDG a few times this year, she loves Churchill)
Shackleford (Sat, Haskell, Travers, JGCG and BCC?)
Twirling Candy (barring any illness, he is top choice)

I don't love his chances Saturday, but at this point I guess he'd be my pick for HOY.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by miraja2

She's a nice horse for sure....but HOY?
I mean is beating a horse like Switch and winning a race like the Apple Blossom really worthy of.......oh wait........

I'm not going anywhere near the Apple Blossom comment!

I agree about Havre de Grace... all I meant was that I had read it and even just the title kinda surprised me.

Was curious if anyone would mention her or Giant Oak... not saying they're my choices.

[King Glorious]

Goldikova to repeat.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Goldikova to repeat.

This post forced me to look at your "signature" list again.
Ghostzapper shouldn't have been HOY in '04....but he should have won in '05?

That strikes me as completely ludicrous....as do some of your other selections.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by miraja2

That strikes me as completely ludicrous....as do some of your other selections.

I'm pretty sure that's why he has the longest signature in on the internet....so people notice it.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by miraja2

This post forced me to look at your "signature" list again.
Ghostzapper shouldn't have been HOY in '04....but he should have won in '05?

That strikes me as completely ludicrous....as do some of your other selections.

It's simple really. At the end of each year, I try to decide two things. First, who was the best horse to run in North America at least one time (since that is the only criteria for winning an award). After that I ask myself who was the most accomplished horse. When the answer to both questions is the same horse, my selection is simple. When it's not, I then ask myself which holds the bigger advantage. For example, 2004 & 2005. I thought that Smart Jones was the more talented, let's say by a 10-9 advantage. I thought GZ was the more accomplishes, let's say by a 10-9.5 advantage. That landed me on Smarty as the winner. In 2005, Saint Liam was the most accomplished by a huge margin but I thought GZs talent margin was even bigger than SLs resume advantage. I also don't think that horses should qualify for awards off of one race but until the rules are changed, I would continue to vote for a qualified horse. As long as Goldikova and Miesque and others can win championships off of one race, why can't an American horse? Who says that one race has to be in the BC? GZs Met was the best race be any horse in NA that year.....by far. As long as Singspiel can be voted as a champion while never even winning a race in this country, as long as High Chaparral can win off a dead-heat, I have no problem voting for GZ.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I thought that Smart Jones was the more talented, let's say by a 10-9 advantage. I thought GZ was the more accomplishes, let's say by a 10-9.5 advantage. That landed me on Smarty as the winner.

Expand on why you think Smarty Jones was more talented than Ghostzapper.

[ateamstupid]

Smarty Jones was more talented than Ghostzapper. Did I really just read that?

[King Glorious]

Da Hoss, you are wrong if you believe that I care what anyone thinks of me or my opinions on here. If I did, as many attacks as I take, I would have been gone long ago.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Expand on why you think Smarty Jones was more talented than Ghostzapper.

I thought that Smarty was every bit as fast as GZ was. The race he ran as 2yo when he got that 105 Beyer was very good, his Rebel was called one of the fastest preps ever, and his Preakness was as good as anyone and better than most. A significant thing (at least to me) was said by Bobby Frankel when he said how Smarty was doing all that while running schedule that was forced on him while he was able to train GZ the way he wanted and was able to have him at peak each time. I think that gave GZ a big advantage. Maybe he doesn't look as brilliant if he's got to come back in two weeks after a top performance. Anyway, it's just the way I saw it back then. I remember after the Preakness, there were quite few people mentioning Smarty's name with Bid and Secretariat. Frankel was one of them.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Da Hoss, you are wrong if you believe that I care what anyone thinks of me or my opinions on here. If I did, as many attacks as I take, I would have been gone long ago.

I don't think anyone has attacked you. I certainly didn't. I just noted that your extremely large signature is an effort to be noticed. So at the very least you want people to see that.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Toy Cannon

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I don't love his chances Saturday, but at this point I guess he'd be my pick for HOY.

I think Saturday lines up nicely for him (and me if he stays 9-2 or higher). I think he can steal it. If he runs well in the races above (might not be their plan but it would be mine) has to be seriously considered unles someone really steps up.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Expand on why you think Smarty Jones was more talented than Ghostzapper.

Not that this proves anything but it goes along with what I posted earlier to answer your question:

From the DRF on 5/18/04, Andy Beyer:

It was difficult to assess Smarty Jones after his triumph at Churchill Downs because his running time was unimpressive and the sloppy, speed-favoring track may have aided him. There were no such ambiguities last Saturday at Pimlico, and people who can recognize an exceptional Thoroughbred knew they had seen the real thing. Patrick Biancone, who has trained high-class horses on three continents, hailed Smarty Jones as "a great champion." Veteran jockey Gary Stevens said, "That's as good as any horse I've ever seen," and mentioned the Preakness winner in the same breath as Secretariat.
Runaway victories can sometimes be deceptive, but objective evidence verified the quality of Smarty Jones's performance. On the day before the Preakness, some of the best older horses in the country contested the Pimlico Special, and the high-class California invader Southern Image won it by running 1 3/16 miles in 1:55.89. The Pimlico racing surface, which has been slower lately than in previous years, was virtually identical the next day, when Smarty Jones sped the same distance in 1:55.59. It is extraordinary for a young 3-year-old to run faster than top-class older horses.

His effort earned him a tie for the second-best Beyer Speed Figure in a Triple Crown race since we began publishing these ratings in 1987. Easy Goer recorded a figure of 122 in the 1989 Belmont Stakes. Summer Squall and Silver Charm got ratings of 118 in the Preaknesses of 1990 and 1997, respectively. Smarty Jones's 118 puts him into some illustrious company.______________________________

From the DRF on 5/19/04, Sean Clancy:

"Sometimes you can do things to a horse to make yourself a length better," Smith said after finishing fourth in the Preakness. "But he's in a league of his own. He might be another Secretariat. I ain't kidding you.""My horse ran the way I expected, and I thought that might be good enough to beat Smarty Jones. Boy, was I wrong," Stevens said after finishing second. "I think I just witnessed a horse that's going to go down in history as one of the best we've ever seen.""You don't beat him, not unless he beats himself," Stevens said. "He won't get beat unless the wheels come off, and I hope they don't come off for a long time."

"He's got all weapons," Smith said. "He handles any track. You can grab a hold of him, take him back, put him on the lead. He can get knocked around. Nothing fazes him."

"So far he hasn't given a stride - that's what makes him a freak," Desormeaux said. "When he went, I tried to go with him, and he just left me. He's like the Lakers - the only thing that can beat him is himself."

"I got goose bumps at the eighth pole," Stevens said. "I thought, 'I have never seen this in my life.' It's going to be great for the sport. We needed this, and it's great people with the horse."

"Sometimes it looks like Stewart's riding him, but it's like he's just pedaling along next to you, like, 'Okay, I'm here.' Like it's no big deal," Smith said. "When we went around the turn, I look over and he's got both ears forward like he's out for a Sunday stroll."

"I got to see him in full color today," Desormeaux said. "He's like Secretariat. He runs because we put him in the starting gate and opened the doors. Now to do the next, it takes a total freak of nature. And he looks like he can do it."
___________________________________

From the DRF on 5/20/04, David Grening:

Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel, who stopped Funny Cide's 2003 Triple Crown bid in the Belmont Stakes with Empire Maker, says he believes Smarty Jones can be mentioned in the same sentence as racing legends Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Spectacular Bid.

"The way he looks right now, he's got an edge on all of them," Frankel said Thursday morning. "He runs on all kinds of tracks, he can make his own race. If somebody wants to go to the lead, he can sit. If nobody wants to go, he can go to the lead. The only thing is if he stays together. If they can get five or six more races out of him, he can be an all-timer, one of the greats."Smarty Jones has won his first eight starts, including the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and is trying to become the first 3-year-old to go through the Triple Crown undefeated since Seattle Slew in 1977.

"Seattle Slew used to get hot if somebody got too close to him," Frankel said. "This colt, nothing bothers him. Secretariat, he didn't like an off track, he got beat a couple of times on an off track. The horse he reminds me the most of is Spectacular Bid, because Spectacular Bid was like that: he'd rate, he'd go to the lead, he'd handle any surface."_________________________________

From the DRF on 5/21/04, Michael Hammersly:

The comparison I've been hearing most frequently is Smarty Jones to Affirmed. That's heady praise, and like Affirmed, Smarty has shown an ability to go whenever his rider desires. That push-button, step-on-the-gas-and-get-thrown-back-in-your-seat ability is absolutely lethal.

But I'm inclined to compare Smarty to Spectacular Bid - and if you know me, you know that's saying something.

I believe Spectacular Bid was the best, most perfect horse we've ever seen. He had a wonderful machine-like precision. And the one thing Smarty does like Bid did is bury foes. Affirmed would win, but you had the feeling he was trying to be funny, like the kid playing tag who is much faster than everyone else but stays just out of their reach, smirking. Spectacular Bid wasn't like that. I felt he didn't want to win, he wanted to bury rivals. He was like Tiger Woods was in 2000 - why win by a shot when you can win by 10? Smarty has shown that same killer instinct.

[RolloTomasi]

Similar effusive praise was heaped onto Ghostzapper during his career as well.

Haskin compared him to Forego, Dr. Fager, and Spectacular Bid in the span of one paragraph.

Frankel said Ghostzapper could win at a mile and a half on turf.