If you like Sun King in the Classic...

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I think that with firsters, using pedigree is one thing, but Sun King has been around for a while... IMO, he's proven he can go 10 furlongs.

I agree with this Cajun. Most of these horses are going to be exhausted going to furlongs anyway. I remember when people thought Alex couldnt get 10 furlongs.

[todko]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I agree with this Cajun. Most of these horses are going to be exhausted going to furlongs anyway. I remember when people thought Alex couldnt get 10 furlongs.

Alex had strong damsire breeding to get a distance. He wasn't any surprise to the people who noticed that.

[todko]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

So, you have questions about Bernardini too? LOL

Yeah, at that price, I have a lot of questions about him.

There are a lot of reasons to bet against him for sure. I still don't know what tickets I will play and whether I'll play against him totally or include him. He won't be my top choice.

One of the big questions is how well Bernardini will handle the crowd. He looked pretty flighty before and after the Travers. Large crowd, full field, he might have issues that we'll see in the paddock/post parade.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by todko

Yeah, at that price, I have a lot of questions about him.

There are a lot of reasons to bet against him for sure. I still don't know what tickets I will play and whether I'll play against him totally or include him. He won't be my top choice.

One of the big questions is how well Bernardini will handle the crowd. He looked pretty flighty before and after the Travers. Large crowd, full field, he might have issues that we'll see in the paddock/post parade.

I was just messing with you. He's not my pick in the BCC at all. Nice colt, for sure, but he's just as guilty as Invasor and Lava Man for running against weak fields. I think a 14 horse field will be a wake up call in itself for him.

Slot dirt: It is clear you are new to thoroughbred handicapping. Not taking breeding into account is like buying stock in a company without looking at their financial records. A case in point earlier this thread with INTERCONTINENTAL people said she could not get the distance, but anyone with a modicum of breeding knowledge could find that her full sister Banks Hill won the 2001 breeders cup. Intercontinental paid $32 and won for fun.

Both are by the great Danehill out of the Juddmonte blue hen Hasili, as are European highweight Dansili and multiple Grade I winner Heat Haze. Look around for similar breeding for this years cup, and thank me later!

Cajungator: Riddle me this Why do you think Sun King is proven at ten furlongs? when he has tried the distance five times and been blown away all five!

Hey Todko: Premium Tap's center of distribution is remarkable. I knew he was inbred to Stage Door Johnny and took it no further. He may get beat but it will not be the trip that does it. If he gets thru at Turfway, he spreads that field and is third or fourth choice for the classic. I like Dynagold today, his form is somewhat hidden and Willie fits. Good cappin. BBB

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Slot dirt: It is clear you are new to thoroughbred handicapping. Not taking breeding into account is like buying stock in a company without looking at their financial records. A case in point earlier this thread with INTERCONTINENTAL people said she could not get the distance, but anyone with a modicum of breeding knowledge could find that her full sister Banks Hill won the 2001 breeders cup. Intercontinental paid $32 and won for fun.

Both are by the great Danehill out of the Juddmonte blue hen Hasili, as are European highweight Dansili and multiple Grade I winner Heat Haze. Look around for similar breeding for this years cup, and thank me later!

Cajungator: Riddle me this Why do you think Sun King is proven at ten furlongs? when he has tried the distance five times and been blown away all five!

Hey Todko: Premium Tap's center of distribution is remarkable. I knew he was inbred to Stage Door Johnny and took it no further. He may get beat but it will not be the trip that does it. If he gets thru at Turfway, he spreads that field and is third or fourth choice for the classic. I like Dynagold today, his form is somewhat hidden and Willie fits. Good cappin. BBB

If you continuously use breeding as your measurement, you're going to get beat. Plenty of horses are actually bred to go 10 furlongs, but does that mean that ALL of them do?

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

If you continuously use breeding as your measurement, you're going to get beat. Plenty of horses are actually bred to go 10 furlongs, but does that mean that ALL of them do?

Yes, there are plenty well bred slugs, but they can get 10f, just very slowly...

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Yes, there are plenty well bred slugs, but they can get 10f, just very slowly...

You know what I meant...

All horses can run 10 furlongs, it's just a matter of how far behind they're going to finish! LOL

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

You know what I meant...

All horses can run 10 furlongs, it's just a matter of how far behind they're going to finish! LOL

The funny thing is somebody I can't remember who, came on here extolling the horse racing knowledge BBB has, I thought wow, great addition, then the breeding nonsense comes out and I think next....

[slotdirt]

Um, I'd guess the best handicappers out there barely use breeding, if at all, unless it's in maiden racing.

[ceejay]

I'd like Sun King in the Classic if they ran the 10f around 1-turn!

I look at breeding but I look at so many other things as well. Breeding is only part of the equation when handicapping older horses. Now breeding plays the majority in looking at 2 year olds. But if you are looking at breeding when handicapping the Classic then you are on the wrong path. We have all seen these horses race numerous times of the past two years. We all should be well informed on what they can and cannot do by now. When handicapping the Classic, I will be looking for works, how the horses looks after a work, how does the horse look in general, does the horse seem to like the track, how is he eating, how is he cooling out..........all these things are much more important to me than breeding.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I look at breeding but I look at so many other things as well. Breeding is only part of the equation when handicapping older horses. Now breeding plays the majority in looking at 2 year olds. But if you are looking at breeding when handicapping the Classic then you are on the wrong path. We have all seen these horses race numerous times of the past two years. We all should be well informed on what they can and cannot do by now. When handicapping the Classic, I will be looking for works, how the horses looks after a work, how does the horse look in general, does the horse seem to like the track, how is he eating, how is he cooling out..........all these things are much more important to me than breeding.

Ditto on that, Euro...

I also look for the horse with something "red" in their name and gold in their silks. HAHA!

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Ditto on that, Euro...

I also look for the horse with something "red" in their name and gold in their silks. HAHA!

That was funny and it took me a moment to figure out what the heck you were saying. That fortune teller was pretty cool. I hope she is there next Derby as well.

At the top levels of the sport, a handicapper not taking breeding into account is like; a person going into a restaurant and ordering pot luck... your going to eat a bunch of lousy meals.

Cajun: Your statement that Sun King is proven at ten furlongs indicates that you have not seen his past performances or cannot correctly interpret them. BBB

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

At the top levels of the sport, a handicapper not taking breeding into account is like; a person going into a restaurant and ordering pot luck... your going to eat a bunch of lousy meals.

Cajun: Your statement that Sun King is proven at ten furlongs indicates that you have not seen his past performances or cannot correctly interpret them. BBB

BBB:

The fact that Sun King has not won at 10 furlongs does not tell me that he isn't capable of winning at 10 furlongs.

And not a single person said that they don't take breeding into account while handicapping. It's just not used as the only angle and horses that have been around for a couple of years are looked at differently than those who are just starting.

[slotdirt]

With the Breeders Cup Classic, if you are using breeding as a factor to determine the winner, you're going to struggle. I'd much rather use my own two eyes to take a look at 14 horses we've all seen run many times to figure out what horses have the best chance to win. Breeding absolutely does not come into play at this level of racing.

I asked yesterday: name the five races (actually four, but we'll say five for arguments sake) at 10f in which Sun King was a participant? Derby, Preakness, Classic, Gold Cup are three. Did he run in another 10f race this season that I am missing? He ran decently as a three year old in both the Gold Cup last year and the Classic before his connections figured out he wasn't at his best on the pace.

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

At the top levels of the sport, a handicapper not taking breeding into account is like; a person going into a restaurant and ordering pot luck... your going to eat a bunch of lousy meals.

Cajun: Your statement that Sun King is proven at ten furlongs indicates that you have not seen his past performances or cannot correctly interpret them. BBB

No one is igoring breeding, we are saying that breeding is a component when capping older horses.

Now I am not sure why you dont think Sun King can get the distance. He only raced twice at that distance after the Derby 1 year ago. Once in JCGC where he finished 3rd to Borrego and that horse simply drew off. However, Sun King was clear by 5 lengths finishing 3rd. In the Classic he stunk it up but he was facing older horses and a couple of good ones even though I didnt think the field was all that well. But since, the horse has matured and has run some nice races. He was closing nicely in his last three starts and if you look at his fractions he is getting faster as the race goes on. Sometimes that is an indication of a horse that is capable of going longer. In handicapping you have to look at the hidden vairables and be able to make sense of them. Closing at 1 mile or 1 1/16 miles does not equal being able to get 10f. But it also doesnt say the horse cant. A clear third by 5 against older horses for the first time and a dismal peformance in the Classic doesnt mean he cant get 10f. I think he will run a good race and this field is suspect and why not him.

Originally Posted by slotdirt

With the Breeders Cup Classic, if you are using breeding as a factor to determine the winner, you're going to struggle. I'd much rather use my own two eyes to take a look at 14 horses we've all seen run many times to figure out what horses have the best chance to win. Breeding absolutely does not come into play at this level of racing.

I asked yesterday: name the five races (actually four, but we'll say five for arguments sake) at 10f in which Sun King was a participant? Derby, Preakness, Classic, Gold Cup are three. Did he run in another 10f race this season that I am missing? He ran decently as a three year old in both the Gold Cup last year and the Classic before his connections figured out he wasn't at his best on the pace.

Slot I know you know this but the Preakness is at 1 3/16 not 1 1/4.

[Sightseek]

Interesting quote from Albertrani in the Blood-Horse:

"Lava Man certainly has the credentials," Albertrani said. "We haven't faced a horse like him yet. And Sun King would be the other horse I'm looking at."

- Where's the love for Invasor?