THURS - Gulfstream (R7-R10 PK4)

[Bogey]

Gulfstream Park


R7 - Clm 40k (Turf 5F) - Typical turf sprint grab bag to start the sequence.

#3 Speight the Halo (12-1) - The price and switch back to the turf look like the right move.
#10 Silver Timber (3-1) - Maybe not what he was, but he'll be making some noise late.
#1 Ness Entry (4-1) - They're both dropping to straight claiming ranks for a high % barn. 4TH
#7 Sir Edgar (6-1) - Will be on the engine early and hope to hold on.

R8 - MSW 51k (3yo 6F)

#7 Late Night Action (8-1) - Solid works for debut as the Pletcher train keeps on rolling.
#2 Elusive Story (7-2) - Comes in off the shelf with a ton of local works.
#4 Lightly Wound (20-1) - Gets a better post in 2nd start for Zito.
#10 Just a Minute (5-1) - Darley runner looks ready off work pattern for strong debut barn.

R9 - OC 75k/N1X (3yo f 8.5F)

#2 Refining (5-1) - Looks to make amends in two turn bow.
#6 Miss Netta (3-1) - Exits BC Juv Filly race with steady works for this. WON $3.80
#7 The Cat's All That (6-1) - Should take advantage of her stretchout speed. 2ND
#5 Golden History (8-1) - Less than 3-1 in G2 Golden Rod, must respect.

R10 - Md 35k (Turf 3yo 8F)

#5 Tiz Friday (12-1) - Live Longshot -Drops for successful turf barn.
#6 Zulu Warrior (6-1) - Drops and barn is smoking hot early in the meet.
#4 Le Grand Artiste (6-1) - Shouldn't get caught wide again. 2ND
#10 Lear (12-1) - Can catch a minor piece for high % J/T combo.

PK4 - 1 2 3 4 5 7 9 10 11 / 2 4 7 10 / 2 6 / 5 6 = $64 for $.50

Good Racing Luck

[The Devil]

Thanks, Gus. Good Luck

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by The Devil

Thanks, Gus. Good Luck

Thanks Devil, good luck to you as well.

[analyizethis]

One winning ticket sweeps the pool $105,000+. Some real bombs but the pck 4 was 6x the parlay.

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by analyizethis

One winning ticket sweeps the pool $105,000+. Some real bombs but the pck 4 was 6x the parlay.

Good deal, I'm trying to figure out how the Double ending in race 8 @ GP paid $1270.60 (23-1 over 33-1) and the PK3 Paid $246.60 (9-2, 23-1, 33-1)

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Good deal, I'm trying to figure out how the Double ending in race 8 @ GP paid $1270.60 (23-1 over 33-1) and the PK3 Paid $246.60 (9-2, 23-1, 33-1)

How much of the pool did the conso take out of that pick 3?

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by GPK

How much of the pool did the conso take out of that pick 3?

It must of been a big chunk as the conso paid $6.20. There was basically the same amount in the pools ($37k to $34k) going in.

[Port Conway Lane]

Inside Post on drf claims a Canadian player bet a $110 part wheel 4/all/1,6 in the 6th/7th/8th sequence.

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Inside Post on drf claims a Canadian player bet a $110 part wheel 4/all/1,6 in the 6th/7th/8th sequence.

That explains it. Are we sure that PG is not in Canadian as he's a heavy PK3 player?

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Good deal, I'm trying to figure out how the Double ending in race 8 @ GP paid $1270.60 (23-1 over 33-1) and the PK3 Paid $246.60 (9-2, 23-1, 33-1)

Pick 3: 7th-8th-9th to Miss Netta at 4/5 paid $3,178.
Hard to believe someone bet a $110 ticket to a $69 first time starter. Must be a Catalano fan

[analyizethis]

4/all/1,6 is 18 combinations as there were 9 betting interests in the middle leg, so (ignoring the fact that the math doesn't come out even (maybe some impact of a currency exchange difference)) if the $110 ticket was weighted equally the bettor would have played the combo six times and had 6 winning $1 tickets. That means they would have collected $1,479.60 for $110 or 12.5 to 1 payoff. Not so great considering it took a $49.60 winner in the all leg to get to that point. I guess they also would have collected 6 times on the consolation pick 3 for another $36 increasing the payoff to 12.78 - 1.

If they really liked the Catalano horse they could have created a parlay with the 4 in the first leg and the other two in the last. $110 to win on the 4 would have returned $605 and then with equal weighting $300 (with $5 for a Molson) to win on the long shot winner returns $10,410 (there would have been some impact on the win pool and payoff but I am going to assume it would not have been much) and a payoff of 93.63-1.

Since the exacta in the last leg was 1 - 6 I am going to presume that they also had that at $502.2 for $2.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by analyizethis

4/all/1,6 is 18 combinations as there were 9 betting interests in the middle leg, so (ignoring the fact that the math doesn't come out even (maybe some impact of a currency exchange difference)) if the $110 ticket was weighted equally the bettor would have played the combo six times and had 6 winning $1 tickets. That means they would have collected $1,479.60 for $110 or 12.5 to 1 payoff. Not so great considering it took a $49.60 winner in the all leg to get to that point. I guess they also would have collected 6 times on the consolation pick 3 for another $36 increasing the payoff to 12.78 - 1.

If they really liked the Catalano horse they could have created a parlay with the 4 in the first leg and the other two in the last. $110 to win on the 4 would have returned $605 and then with equal weighting $300 (with $5 for a Molson) to win on the long shot winner returns $10,410 (there would have been some impact on the win pool and payoff but I am going to assume it would not have been much) and a payoff of 93.63-1.

Since the exacta in the last leg was 1 - 6 I am going to presume that they also had that at $502.2 for $2.

I believe it was implied the guy had the $1 pick 3 110 times. Had he not wagered, two $1 tickets would have split 27k+.

[analyizethis]

Ok I get it.

So if the ticket was 1/9/2 = 18 *110, it cost $1,980 for which he got (110 * 246.6) =$27,126 for a 12.7 - 1 payoff.

I would still contend that if they liked the single in the first leg and the other 2 (one of which was 33.7 - 1) in the third leg that much there was a better way to invest $2,000 then going all in the middle.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by analyizethis

Ok I get it.

So if the ticket was 1/9/2 = 18 *110, it cost $1,980 for which he got (110 * 246.6) =$27,126 for a 12.7 - 1 payoff.

I would still contend that if they liked the single in the first leg and the other 2 (one of which was 33.7 - 1) in the third leg that much there was a better way to invest $2,000 then going all in the middle.

I suppose...Now that the results can be reviewed it makes it easy to play what if. He could have reaped half of what he got back with a $2 play. Obviously he hurt his price the way it played out.
I wouldn't be surprised if the same guy had 3/4 or even swept the p-5. Four
$.50 tickets were cashed while there was only one ticket on the p-4.

[analyizethis]

Good point on the pick 5. The pick 5 paid 25% of the parlay price which is the lowest since the introduction of the pick 5 at Gulfstream last year.

The point on the pick 3 is that the result was a "best case scenario" as the next to longest shot on the board won the middle (all) leg and the lesson for all of us to learn for the future is that the player turned it into a 13 -1 shot based on his bet.