1/29: Aqueduct ($42k C/O); Gulfstream (P5); Santa Anita ($240k C/O)

[Kasept]

Took a thorough beating Saturday getting behind early and then chasing after the loses. Nothing really took root however and several hundred went missing from the bankroll that had been puffed up earlier in the week. Hope I didn't bury you too badly with a lot of poor opinions. The racing itself featured some particularly sharp efforts in the Gulfstream version of the Sunshine Millions as Mucho Man, Awesome Feather and It's Me Mom turned in dominating performances, restricted company or not.

At Vegas, the NHC went down to another thrilling last race decider as Baton Rouge, LA native Michael Beychok nipped Chicagoland's Dave Flanzbaum on a winner in the Golden Gate nightcap. Both players had big closing days, but it's notable that Beychok was the tourney's only participant to earn in excess of $100.00 on both days having earned $106.40 on Friday ahead of the $132.20 knocked down Saturday. He bested Flanzbaum ($87.80; $149.80) by $1.00.

Pick 6 carryovers at Aqueduct ($42k) and Santa Anita ($240k) and strong P5 sequence at Gulfstream including the Forward Gal and Holy Bull. Let's get our money back!


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


JOCK WATCH: Be aware that as of today, Ryan Curatolo is a journeyman but will still retain a 3# break when riding for his contract outfit Flying Zee..


4th: OC/C, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

If you follow Andy Serling at Twitter (@andyserling), you noted Saturday that he signaled players to the development of the first true bias on the Inner so far this meet. Watch races 1-3 caredully today to see if the inner patrh is carrying mediocre types again today because there is a good chance that super Glenn Kozak will have tried to even the surface out overnight. But if inside speed is paramount, adjust your selections accordingly..

Most Likely: #3 Full of Gut 5-2 5th
Next Best: #8 Giant Sensation 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Myprincessallyson 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Winnie Dixie 3-1 2nd

NOTE: Presence of Myprincessallyson here triggers need to express condolences to trainer John Tammaro III and his siblings who lost their brother Mike Friday -- just 57 -- in Kentucky..


5th: NY-MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Ugly bunch..

Most Likely: #1 Tannery Town 6-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Slytopia 20-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Firebay 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Tax Return 4-1 WON ($9.80)


6th: CLM, 4+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD, Super)

8-5 I Love It is being given away. Doesn't mean he can't win or won't simply overwhelm this group, but the one work since New Year's Eve fiasco gives pause..

Most Likely: #7 Calgary Enforcer 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Leatherhead 10-1 5th
Next Best: #4 I Love It 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Exotics Use: #6 True Linnet 10-1 6th


7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 So Scott 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #9 Cooper River 3-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #4 Cap the Moment 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Flo's Greatness 4-1 4th


8th: OC/N1X, 4+, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Terrific open company ALW. Favorite Take a Walk (8-5) is respectable, but hardly fear-inducing. All here except With a Cape can win, with second longest ML number Cinnamon Beach (12-1) having an effort on 12/16 that makes him a major player..

Most Likely: #6 Winaholic 5-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Cinnamon Beach 12-1 WON ($15.80)
Next Best: #2 Take a Walk 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Artie Luvsto Party 8-1 5th


9th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f (Super)

Best Value: #1 Hill Crossing 6-1 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #12 Metrology 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Macho Muchacho 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Small Town 15-1 7th


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 3-8
5: 1-3-4-7
6: 4-5-7
7: 2
8: 2-5-6
9: 1

2x4x3x1x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-7
7: 2-4-7-9
8: 2-5-6
9: 1-3-11-12

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$.50 P4 (4,8/9/5/1) Pays $230.50



GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


NOTE: 8th and 11th came OFF the turf.. P4 play revised below..


7th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

There isn't a great amount of pace signed on for his stalk/rally style so he may be best used 'under', but In the Beat from famed Nafzger-Tafel tandem will be ridiculous value in group of sassy looking sophomores. And Emma Jayne Wilson an upgrade from Borel..

Best Value: #8 In the Beat 20-1 7th
Next Best: #2 El Padrino 4-1 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Casual Trick 5-2 9th
Super Add: #4 Big Screen 6-1 5th


8th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Mott brings back Hollywood Wildcat son Spinning Wildcat after strong bow. Reminder that Hard Spun miss not only dropped from Champion and BC Distaff winner, but is half to War Chant, Minister's Wild Cat, Bold Warrior, et al. Morning Line of 6-1 is silly..

Most Likely: #10 Coup 3-1 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #6 Mistie Royale 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 SCR
Super Add: #4 SCR


9th: 34th Forward Gal (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Hard to go against Pletcher-Robsham team in Florida, where the maroon and gold "R" fillies all seem to take wing..

Most Likely: #5 Broadway's Alibi 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #4 Sacristy 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Say a Novena 6-1 2nd


10th: 25th Holy Bull (G3), 3yo, 1m (DD, Super)

Soph season in FL finally gets serious with the Juvenile Champion Hansen facing off against fast developing pair of Bernardinis from Pletcher & McLaughlin. Certainly a spot to go against the Tapit colt, but Algorithms and Consortium are going to take plenty of money themselves..

Most Likely: #6 Algorithms 5-2 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #4 Hansen 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Consortium 3-1 6th


11th: S/ALW, F&M-4+, 9f-OFF THE TURF

Best Value: #11 Falbala 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Fly Angel Fly 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Sacred Desire 30-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Coffee Run 5-1 5th


<$200 P5 Play:

7: 2-3-4-5-7-8
8: Off the turf
9: 5
10: 2-4-6
11: Off the turf

NO BET


<$50 P4 Play:

8: 6-10
9: 4-5-6
10: 2-4-6
11: 7-11

2x3x3x2 = $36

$1 P4 (1,2,4,8,9,10,13,14,15/5/6) Paid $66.30



SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Via Verde 3-1 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #4 Coffee Boy 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Valkyrie Missle 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Hidden Blessing 10-1 5th


5th: MDN CLM, 4+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 My Slew 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Joburg Star 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Our Last Monte 3-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Si Es Verdad 12-1 6th


6th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Mega Heat 4-1 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #7 Boxeur des Rues 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Tigah 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Utopian 5-1 4th


7th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Has look of a productive Maiden set. After the sharp pair inside, I'm going to look to 2nd timer from Hendricks and 1st time dirt colt by Pulpi from Shirreffs for some exotics price jolts..

Most Likely: #2 Zackn'mat 5-2 WON ($7.20)
Next Best: #1 Boat Trip 4-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Sea to Sky 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Mank 15-1 3rd


8th: Wishing Well-R, F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (DD, Super)

May be wrong, but feels like everyone is abandoning ship on Unzip Me and wants to be against her. I don't get it..

Most Likely: #6 Unzip Me 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #9 Teroda 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Givine 5-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Remit 12-1 3rd


9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Capalette 9-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Coparcenary 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Siempre Esperanza 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Russian Bayou 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Super/Hi-5: #1 Benecia 20-1 9th


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-4-6
5: 1-3-6
6: 7-9
7: 1-2
8: 6
9: 6-9

3x3x2x2x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 7-8-9
7: 1-2-7-8
8: 1-6-9
9: 5-6-9-10

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (5,9/2,5/6,8/3,10) Paid $50.20


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG'S

GP SCR/CHG'S

steve, in race 10 at gulfstream, would your numbers be 2,4,6? P4 and P5

[Alan07]

Why the 3 pound break?

[GPK]

Gonna be interesting to see how Curatolo performs without his bug now.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by arizonadave

steve, in race 10 at gulfstream, would your numbers be 2,4,6? P4 and P5

Yes Dave.. Thx!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Alan07

Why the 3 pound break?

A throwback rule from the days of contract riders. Sciacca and Mig made me aware of it this past fall. Believe it stays on for another year post-bug.

[Kasept]

Section 4. Apprentice Allowance. (1) Any person sixteen (16) years of age or older, who has not been licensed previously as a jockey in any jurisdiction, and who is qualified under Section 2 of this administrative regulation, may claim in all purse races except handicaps the following weight allowances:

(a) Ten (10) pounds until he has ridden five (5) winners;

(b) Seven (7) pounds until he has ridden an additional thirty-five (35) winners;

(c) If he has ridden a total of forty (40) winners prior to the end of one (1) year from the date of riding his fifth winner, he shall have an allowance of five (5) pounds until the end of that year; and

(d) If after one (1) year from the date of the fifth winner, the apprentice jockey has not ridden forty (40) winners, the applicable weight allowance shall continue for one (1) additional year, or until the 40th winning mount, whichever occurs first.

(2)(a) After the completion of conditions in subsection (1) of this section, a contracted apprentice may claim three (3) pounds for one (1) year if riding horses owned or trained by his original contract employer if his contract has not been transferred or sold since his first winner.

(b) The original contract employer shall be the party to the contract who was the employer at the time of the apprentice jockey's first winner.

(c) Apprentice allowance shall not be claimed for a period in excess of two (2) years from the date of the rider's fifth winner unless an extension has been granted in accordance with subsection (4) of this section.

(3) An apprentice jockey may enter into a contract with a licensed owner or licensed trainer qualified under Section 5 of this administrative regulation for a period not to exceed five (5) years.

(a) These contracts shall be:

1. Approved by the stewards;

2. Filed with the commission; and

3. Binding in all respects on the parties to the contract.

(b) An apprentice who has not entered into a contract pursuant to this subsection shall be given an apprentice jockey certificate.

(4) If an apprentice jockey is unable to ride for a period of seven (7) consecutive days or more because of service in the armed forces of the United States, physical disablement, attendance in an institution of secondary or higher education, restrictions on racing, or other valid reason, the commission, upon recommendation of the stewards and after consultation with the racing entity which approved the original apprentice contract, may extend the time during which the apprentice weight allowance may be claimed for a period no longer than the period the apprentice rider was unable to ride.

(5) After completion of conditions in subsection (1) of this section, the rider shall be issued a license as a jockey before accepting subsequent mounts. Under these circumstances, the commission may waive collection of an additional license fee.

[Kasept]

SA SCR/CHG'S

[pointman]

Originally Posted by GPK

Gonna be interesting to see how Curatolo performs without his bug now.

Agree, will be interesting to see if he can still get quality mounts. Today is the last day for Irad Ortiz' 5 pound bug.

[Alan07]

Raining a bit steady now at Gulf, stay tuned for potential surface changes.

UPDATE: Turf now GOOD for the 6th.

[Alan07]

off The Turf
Races 8 And 11

[pointman]

Although mentioned on the playalong thread, this is a real outrage that GP took the late races off the turf minutes before the pk5 starts and didn't announce late scratches until after the race, nor did they correct the website to reflect accurate information regarding the turf prior to the 7th race going off.

[Kasept]

Played around with the other Mott that stayed in.. #6 Mistie Royale. Firster.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pointman

Although mentioned on the playalong thread, this is a real outrage that GP took the late races off the turf minutes before the pk5 starts and didn't announce late scratches until after the race, nor did they correct the website to reflect accurate information regarding the turf prior to the 7th race going off.

On this one Alan... You're right.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Kasept

On this one Alan... You're right.

Nice job at Aqueduct, Steve. Good luck the rest of the afternoon/evening.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Nice job at Aqueduct, Steve. Good luck the rest of the afternoon/evening.

Thx Coachie! Like the sequence at SA...

[Kasept]

SA P6 pool over $1,250,000.. and still time yet. Wow.

[Bogey]

Steve, nice job at Aqu and Gulfstream, now just finish it with style at SA before LUCK tonight.