Tampa Bay Downs 2011-2012 Meet

Can't think of a track that aggravates me more than that sh.ithole. Might as well play Beulah.

Oh well it didn't matter. Either complete incompetence or race fixing happened in race 7. Either way the track isn't worth betting on.

They've gotta take him down.

[northeastbound123]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

They've gotta take him down.

guess not, i thought for sure he was coming down

Two bumps and it's ok. What a clown shoes track.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Two bumps and it's ok. What a clown shoes track.

I'm not saying this had anything to do with the decision, but the 5 also came in and bumped the 3 late stretch. Very strangely, and roughly run race. In other words, typical TBD

Originally Posted by golfer

I'm not saying this had anything to do with the decision, but the 5 also came in and bumped the 3 late stretch. Very strangely, and roughly run race. In other words, typical TBD

Who knows what goes through their heads. But, to me, the rail horse is at a disadvantage and he gets bumped twice at the start of the stretch run and how they can say that didn't lose him second is beyond me.

It's bad enough we have to suffer through these horrible cards that cater to clement and sheppard where the other trainers outside of redneck and bennett are so awful that you have to include their horses form withstanding. The least they could do is judge the races properly.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Who knows what goes through their heads. But, to me, the rail horse is at a disadvantage and he gets bumped twice at the start of the stretch run and how they can say that didn't lose him second is beyond me.

It's bad enough we have to suffer through these horrible cards that cater to clement and sheppard where the other trainers outside of redneck and bennett are so awful that you have to include their horses form withstanding. The least they could do is judge the races properly.

You're not the only one who is less than thrilled with Tampa Bay Downs right now:

http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-tampa-...-its-ascension

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by golfer

You're not the only one who is less than thrilled with Tampa Bay Downs right now:

http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-tampa-...-its-ascension

I won't even try to dissect this piece - other than to say, once again, when he has an opinion, he tends to leaves out glaringly pertinent facts to enhance his argument.

The field sizes are roughly the same as last year, Jamie Ness was here last year, winning at an alarming rate - again, and that was a banner year for handle and gross.

What is obviously missing this year is the coverage and cross-promotion on TVG, and while he makes no distinction between on track handle and intra/interstate handle - only that it's "down" and half mill a day - it would be interesting to get the real facts. The on track attendance does seems to be a bit off from recent years, but that seems to be endemic across the state, as the warmer winter has kept more people from venturing south for the season. Regardless, it is nowhere close to .5 mil. a day. The lack of a TVG audience I would guess accounts for at least 75% of the shortfall.

With regard to Ness - I'll be the first to admit that my biased opinion is that he's a scourge and should be dealt with, the same way card counters are dealt with at casinos - unfortunately, the fact remains though that he apparently operates within the confines of the rules and thus is afforded the courtesy of playing within those confines until proven guilty. Catch him, and ban him - they raided his barn last year and apparently found nothing in everything they took.... so Beyer can accuse him all he likes, but there is no crime in winning, and if he can't be caught doing something untoward, then he deserves the right to be considered innocent until proven otherwise.
Consider him as a part of the handicapping landscape - there are a number of angles where he is, actually, remarkably weak - perhaps Beyer needs to spend a little more time with Formulator, and a little less time blaming him for the downturn in handle.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

With regard to Ness - I'll be the first to admit that my biased opinion is that he's a scourge and should be dealt with, the same way card counters are dealt with at casinos - unfortunately, the fact remains though that he apparently operates within the confines of the rules and thus is afforded the courtesy of playing within those confines until proven guilty. Catch him, and ban him - they raided his barn last year and apparently found nothing in everything they took.... so Beyer can accuse him all he likes, but there is no crime in winning, and if he can't be caught doing something untoward, then he deserves the right to be considered innocent until proven otherwise.
Consider him as a part of the handicapping landscape - there are a number of angles where he is, actually, remarkably weak - perhaps Beyer needs to spend a little more time with Formulator, and a little less time blaming him for the downturn in handle.

I get wanting to stick up for your home track, I really do. It's respectable and I would do the same.

But you realize Beyer wrote the piece as someone who loves Tampa right? You've got an entire thread here of people who don't know what to do with Ness horses because when a guy is winning at nearly 50% you just can't pitch any of his horses with any confidence from a multi race exotic and your response is Beyer should spend more time with Formulator?

Whether you agree or not, he's one of if not the only journalist in our sport who will write about real topics. I'm not saying everything he says is right, but your criticism here seems misplaced and I say that as someone who respects your opinion a great deal as you know.

I've been looking at Tampa a bit more recently thanks to some peer pressure from Golfer. My one issue is some (not all) of the races are unplayable when Ness has a runner. I'm sure not being on TVG has impacted overall handle, but people avoiding races where Ness is involved has to be a big part of it.

What is so bad about pointing that out?

[NTamm1215]

For what it's worth, between January 1 and February 15, avg daily handle at Tampa was:

2012 - $3,870,728
2011 - $4,360,127

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

For what it's worth, between January 1 and February 15, avg daily handle at Tampa was:

2012 - $3,870,728
2011 - $4,360,127

Which has to compare favorably to any other major circuit running....

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Which has to compare favorably to any other major circuit running....

Actually Aqu, GP, OP, and SA all experienced handle increases during that time period.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I get wanting to stick up for your home track, I really do. It's respectable and I would do the same.

But you realize Beyer wrote the piece as someone who loves Tampa right? You've got an entire thread here of people who don't know what to do with Ness horses because when a guy is winning at nearly 50% you just can't pitch any of his horses with any confidence from a multi race exotic and your response is Beyer should spend more time with Formulator?

Whether you agree or not, he's one of if not the only journalist in our sport who will write about real topics. I'm not saying everything he says is right, but your criticism here seems misplaced and I say that as someone who respects your opinion a great deal as you know.

I've been looking at Tampa a bit more recently thanks to some peer pressure from Golfer. My one issue is some (not all) of the races are unplayable when Ness has a runner. I'm sure not being on TVG has impacted overall handle, but people avoiding races where Ness is involved has to be a big part of it.

What is so bad about pointing that out?

Not a thing - but when they guy has been winning 40% there for the past 4 years, it's a little disingenuous to pretend that now he's the major problem and why the handle's down - that was my only point. You can't ignore the fact that not having the races on TVG - with the cross promotion virtually every half hour, hasn't been the major impact to the handle - nothing else has really changed.
I get it - I hate the SOB and wish they'd ship him out of here on a rail tomorrow. He does impact wagering negatively in that he almost always has to be included, so you essentially have to win twice - you not only need to pick the winner, but you have to beat him too just to get a price. And you lose 55% of those includes. It sucks.

[tiggerv]

I queried my own database because it's a bit easier than Formulator but I'm sure Formulator will show the same.

Current Tampa Meet
Jamie Ness 98-45-18-10 $2.33 ROI
Post time favorite in 61 of 98 starts and won 33 of the 61 with a $2.20 ROI
Ness and Midwest Thoroughbreds, Inc. earned $482932 or $4928 per start
Average field size with a Ness horse (98 starts): 8.14
Average field size without a Ness horse (388 starts): 8.86

Hard to say how much effect he has directly on handle but I think there is enough data to prove that he has at least some impact on field size.

If you can't catch him doing something illicit, do you go another route to kick him out like Parx did with Guerrero?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Not a thing - but when they guy has been winning 40% there for the past 4 years, it's a little disingenuous to pretend that now he's the major problem and why the handle's down - that was my only point. You can't ignore the fact that not having the races on TVG - with the cross promotion virtually every half hour, hasn't been the major impact to the handle - nothing else has really changed.
I get it - I hate the SOB and wish they'd ship him out of here on a rail tomorrow. He does impact wagering negatively in that he almost always has to be included, so you essentially have to win twice - you not only need to pick the winner, but you have to beat him too just to get a price. And you lose 55% of those includes. It sucks.

I hear ya and agree about Ness. I thought his argument was more a collaborative effort citing the Ness factor (which we can all relate to) and the stuff about racehorse shortage, which is a nationwide problem and not just a Tampa problem.

I just didn't see it as a hit piece. To me, it was the opinion of a guy who loves racing at Tampa, but is troubled by the developments of the sport as a whole and was using Tampa as an example. The piece could have easily been written about many tracks around the country. But because of Beyer's fondness for Tampa, he used it as an example.

Either way, enjoy yourself this weekend.

[ateamstupid]

As a racing fan, I have a problem with Ness, but as a gambler, there are upsides. His horses are always overbet, and beating one of them can produce a big score. It may not be easy to do, but from following the circuit of late and some advice from DT Tampa players, you do pick up on his trends and when it's worth taking a shot against him.

[ateamstupid]

Early Pick 4
1,2,9 / 1,5,7 / 1,4,6,8 / 3,8

[ateamstupid]

Late Pick 4
1,2,5,6 / 3 / 7,10 / 2,4,6,8,10

[Bigsmc]

DD

3/3,6

Gl

*Cancelled when the 3 balked at the gate. Smartest thing I've done all week.