4/7: Aqueduct (1st-11th); Hawthorne (IL Derby); Santa Anita (6th-11th)

[Kasept]

AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Idle American 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #4 Mr. Vantastic 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Fox Rules 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Chilton 15-1 5th


2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Some notable pedigrees including Ribaletta daughter Riboletti and POE Evening Garden, a half to Harmonious debuting for Jimmy Jerkens. Silverette the horse to beat..

Most Likely: #4 Silverette 8-5 WON ($2.90)
Next Best: #3 Riboletti 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Stunning Lady 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Evening Garden 10-1 7th


3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

More classy MDN's including Zito FL returnee Spin Out (Hard Spun) who is a half to sire Friendly Island, Car Talk (Bernardini) a half to Dixie Chatter and 4yo Crepuscolo (Johannesberg), a half to Lion Heart. WinStar's Desert Storm from Mott was ticketed to be a Derby Trail horse but dropped rider and ran off before first scheduled GP start which slowed his '12 campaign. Spin Out ran into Flashy Dresser last time. Guyana Star Dweej ran huge on Gotham Day behind IL Derby candidate Morgan's Guerilla and then matched that try behind Term Loan 3 weeks ago. C. Brown's Rum Tug Tugger was also in the Flashy Dresser race and will likely improve here in 2nd start. Terrific race..

Most Likely: #10 Spin Out 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Desert Storm 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Quorum 15-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Crepuscolo 20-1 10th

.10 SUPER: 10 with 2-3-4-6-9-10 with 2-3-4-6-9-10 with 2-3-4-6-9-10 (1x6x5x4 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)


4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Well-matched set of NY breds with 6 of the 13 looking possible. Spread it around..

Most Likely: #3 Robert's Breach 7-2 WON ($7.90)
Best Value: #12 Easy Street 8-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Readbytheline 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Ecstatic Cat 10-1 12th


5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very tricky group with locals getting back on the lawn. Jump up efforts possible, so a challenging end to the quad sequence. Note AE #14 Frisky Cat (15-1) would be intriguing first turf out of Dynaformer mare Risky Agenda who never won in 8 starts (0-2-2; $32k) but was more than respectable in defeat..

Most Likely: #4 Ampersand 7-2 WON ($6.70)
Next Best: #1 Mia Poppy 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Snacks 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Dreamalot 6-1 8th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-4
3: 2-6-10
4: 2-3-4-8-10-12
5: 1-3-4-5

2x3x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Macho Dorado 5-2 6th
Best Value: #8 Cosmic King 6-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Le Bernardin 3-1 WON ($14.20)
Exotics Use: #11 Cribnote 10-1 7th


7th: 63rd Comely (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Nice edition of this as the good 3yo fillies begin to line up. Have been singing praises of Millionreasonswhy and this is opportunity for her to be re-introduced to a wider audience after being closest match for Champion My Miss Aurelia as 2yo. Even money favorite Broadway's Alibi beat no one when freaking on sealed Gulfstream slop and is in for a rude awakening here. An enthusiastic play-against..

Most Likely: #3 Millionreasonswhy 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Singlet 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Welcome Guest 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Broadway's Alibi 1-1 WON ($4.30)


8th: 52nd Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Lots of pace signed on which makes it feel like Hardened Wildcat gets desired set up. Respect Trinniberg cut from same cloth as speedy, overachieving sire..

Most Likely: #6 Hardened Wildcat 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Trinniberg 9-5 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #8 How Do I Win 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 King and Crusader 8-1 5th


9th: 88th Wood Memorial (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Straightforward edition of this spring standard with top 4 on ML the ones you have to work through. Alpha and Gemologist aren't appreciably dominant stacked up against My Adonis and Street Life, so don't be affraid to key off the longer prices if that was your inclination. Kelly Breen and Chad Brown every bit as likely to have charges tuned properly as McLaughlin and Pletcher..

Most Likely: #1 Alpha 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 My Adonis 8-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Gemologist 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Street Life 4-1 6th


10th: 112th Carter H. (G1), 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Outstanding, taut group for this preface to the Met Mile. Caleb's Posse should be knocking on Emcee's door late..

Most Likely: #3 Caleb's Posse 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #1 (POE) Emcee 7-2 4th/5th
Exotics Use: #2 Jackson Bend 3-1 WON ($11.40)


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3 (1-5-6)
8: 1-6-8
9: 1-3-5-6
10: 1-3

Main: 1x3x4x2 = 24 x $1.50 = $36
Back-up: 3x3x4x2 = 72 x .50 = $36


11th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #13 Molly's Ship 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Drink With Pride 5-1 12th
Exotics Use: #2 Heiden 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Super Add: #3 Max's First 6-1 4th



HAWTHORNE


PRE-SCRATCHES


9th: 55th Illinois Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

This is a silly race with any combination of mediocrities possible. Pick a bunch at prices and have fun with it. No opinion is ridiculous here..

Best Value: #1 Romancing the Gold 15-1 13th
Next Best: #5 Pretension 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #13 Done Talking 20-1 WON ($27.20)
Super Add: #3 Ring It Up 15-1 6th



SANTA ANITA


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: 75th Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Will protect I'll Have Another in multis and exotics but look for values with the highly probable Creative Cause..

Most Likely: #1 Creative Cause 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #10 Brother Francis 20-1 5th
Next Best: #4 I'll Have Another 5-2 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Longview Drive 12-1 9th


7th: OC/N1X, 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Fiddlers Afleet 9-5 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #8 Ultimate Decision 9-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Next Door Neighbor 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Oilisblackgold 5-1 3rd


8th: 32nd Providencia (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Lady of Shamrock 6-5 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #5 Charm the Maker 9-2 4th
Next Best: #7 SCR
Exotics Use: #3 Killer Graces 8-1 3rd


9th: 30th Potrero Grande (G2), 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Amazombie 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #1 Sway Away 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Roman Threat 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Camp Victory 6-1 3rd


10th: 3rd American Beauty, F&M-4+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Belle Royale 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #5 Imperialistic Diva 12-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Go Forth North 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Rosehill Dew 15-1 9th


11th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Midnight Con 5-2 5th
Best Value: #6 Ron Burgundy 6-1 WON ($21.60)
Next Best: #8 Galitzaner 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Swiss Game 6-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #4 Bespoke Suit 20-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-5-7
9: 1-2
10: ALL
11: 1-6-8

3x2x8x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (1/2/7-2/4/7/8-4-6) Paid $99.30


Good luck!
Steve

[Gate Dancer]

Classic comments about the Ill Derby............you're correct, anything can happen here. Funny that this will have no impact on the Derby other than guaranteeing that someone gets in.

[tywizard]

If you believe that you have to be rooting for the Repole entry as he will take money in May if he wins and goes to the derby. Right?

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG'S

[Mike]

This is a silly race with any combination of mediocrities possible. Pick a bunch at prices and have fun with it. No opinion is ridiculous here..

[Stickhorse]

Steve,

If you didn't already notice your HAW and SA disappeared.

[tanner12oz]

what happened to the picks???

lol the suspense of awaiting steve's wood memorial selections =)

[Kasept]

Hey.. Sorry. Just got to AQU. Restored now. When editing, the wireless air card signal sometimes 'stalls' and it erases stuff. Pain in the azz... G/L everybody. Beautiful afternoon here!

[tanner12oz]

is the reason why the pick 4 payouts stink at aqueduct more because of short prices or the .50 threshold?? i've hit my last 4 pick 4's there and i think i'm down probably $50 dollars

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

is the reason why the pick 4 payouts stink at aqueduct more because of short prices or the .50 threshold?? i've hit my last 4 pick 4's there and i think i'm down probably $50 dollars

April 5th $1275 (for .50) Early
$316 (for .50) Late

April 6th $1732 (for .50) Early


I stopped looking after that.

[tanner12oz]

guess i'm just hitting bad ones....i could pull 2 ridiculously low payouts out if you would like? thanks for answering my question though

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

is the reason why the pick 4 payouts stink at aqueduct more because of short prices or the .50 threshold?? i've hit my last 4 pick 4's there and i think i'm down probably $50 dollars

I don't need to look at the charts to know that the .50 minimum has nothing at all to do with low payoffs. If anything the .50 wager creates better value for the low end payoffs when the favorites run well.

I'm just guessing you're spreading too broad and unable to pinpoint one or two singles.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

guess i'm just hitting bad ones....i could pull 2 ridiculously low payouts out if you would like? thanks for answering my question though

Well start from Wood day and go back until the Main track opened, they will include the last 4 pick 4's that you hit.

4/7 (Wood day0 EARLY 2/5*, 5-1, 5/2, 5/2* $78 LATE 6/5*, 7/5*, 6/5*, 9/2 $45

4/6 EARLY 12-1, 17-1, 2/5*,3-1* $1732 LATE 6/5*, 6/5*, 8/5*, 1-1* $30

4/5 EARLY 7-1, 13-1, 6/5*, 7/2 $1275 LATE 2-1*, 9/2, 5/2, 9/2 $316

4/4 EARLY 3/2, 8-1, 15-1, 8-1, $1727 LATE 6/5*, 4-1, 7/2, 6/5* $106

3/31 EARLY 2-1, 2-1, 5-1, 3-1 $325 LATE 3-1, 3-1, 7-1, 4/5* $286

3/30 EARLY 5-1, 3/2**, 4/5***, 2-1 $113 LATE 62-1, 1-1*, 33-1, 3-1, $9330

3/29 EARLY 7/5*, 5/2, 2/5*, 7/2 $64 LATE 3/5*, 22-1, 7-1, 9/5 $553

3/28 EARLY 2/5*, 7/2, 6/5*, 3/2 $55 LATE 7-1, 1/5*, 6/5*, 1-1 $49

3/25 EARLY 7/2, 9/5, 3-1, 4-1 $217 LATE 8/5*, 6/5*, 2-1, 3/5* $33

3/24 EARLY 4/5*, 6-1, 11-1, 3-1 $225 LATE 5/2, 3/5*, 6/5*, 7/2* $73

3/23 EARLY 9/5*, 5/2, 4/5*, 2-1 $24 LATE 2-1*, 3-1, 9-1, 5/2* $970

3/22 EARLY 6/5*, 2/1*, 2-1, 7/2 $72 LATE 5-1, 5-1, 2/5*, 17-1 $753

3/21 EARLY 2-1*, 4-1, 7-1, 8-1 $1126 LATE 3-1, 3-1, 6/5*, 2/5* $78

Payouts are all off .50 wager
*denotes the favorite
** 3 horse field
****4 horse field

Yes, I do agree that the .50 mininum bet does depress payouts to an extent. People have more combinations to win, but there is also more money coming into the pools. But for the most part, the majority of these pick fours that have been coming back light are due to the fact that they just chalked out. There are some nice ones posted that do include chalk.

Congrats on hitting your last four pick fours at the big A. But honestly, you are probably doing something wrong if you had the one for $1700 and are still down 50 bucks............................

[tanner12oz]

nah they have all been chalk city....singles and then spread deeper on the other legs to try to catch a price to no avail with some even money nag crossing the wire first...

just doesnt seem like it use to be at aq when i started playing with steve a few years back...maybe its just a bad memory though