DERBY/OAKS DAWN PATROL: (5/1) Valeski out, Optimizer in..

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'm not knocking people. I just don't get why people like him and want it explained.

Nick's explanation still doesn't do it for me, and yeah, while Pyro and El Padrino do have different circumstances, my assertation that they are similar in style and lack of speed, and an abundance of hype, it still stands.

We clearly have different definitions of "abundance of hype." Pyro went off at 5.7-1 after a 10th place finish. El Padrino is at 20.5-1 right now at thegreek.com. What's more, I don't see anybody expecting him to win. Rather, folks are looking to play him underneath, which I don't find outrageous.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'm not knocking people. I just don't get why people like him and want it explained.

Nick's explanation still doesn't do it for me, and yeah, while Pyro and El Padrino do have different circumstances, my assertation that they are similar in style and lack of speed, and an abundance of hype, it still stands.

If Pletcher had a cute son, hot wife and said El Padrino didn't like GP, all would be fine. Oh, and if El Padrino was also by Indian Charlie.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'm not knocking people. I just don't get why people like him and want it explained.

Nick's explanation still doesn't do it for me, and yeah, while Pyro and El Padrino do have different circumstances, my assertation that they are similar in style and lack of speed, and an abundance of hype, it still stands.

Injun Chuck,

I went into the write up liking the fact that he showed potential to move forward off the FL Derby where he wasn't as bad as people might think. And fig-wise, he's actually been pairing up and is completely in line with all the obvious, lower-priced options. He has a good style for how I think the race flow is going develop as well. The problem, if he indeed has gone the wrong way, is that the Risen Star corker gutted him and Mark Valeski and it will be a while before he's back to where it appeared he was headed. While Jones & Jones may OK a start Wednesday after his jog, Valeski appears to be sideways right now as well..

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

We clearly have different definitions of "abundance of hype." Pyro went off at 5.7-1 after a 10th place finish. El Padrino is at 20.5-1 right now at thegreek.com. What's more, I don't see anybody expecting him to win. Rather, folks are looking to play him underneath, which I don't find outrageous.

But, people have (and had) abandoned ship somewhat after their final Derby preps!

The rest of what you say is true enough.

[Kasept]

Glad this has generated discussion. Take a good look at the Derby charts from the last 7-8 years. Headed to a dinner but anxious to see more of everyone's thoughts later!

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

If Pletcher had a cute son, hot wife and said El Padrino didn't like GP, all would be fine. Oh, and if El Padrino was also by Indian Charlie.

I don't find boys cute, I have no idea if his wife is hot or not, but you might be onto something with that third point!

That being said, if the sire was IC, than El Padrino would obviously be a much better racehorse.

This would all be a mute point.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Injun Chuck,

I went into the write up liking the fact that he showed potential to move forward off the FL Derby where he wasn't as bad as people might think. And fig-wise, he's actually been pairing up and is completely in line with all the obvious, lower-priced options. He has a good style for how I think the race flow is going develop as well. The problem, if he indeed has gone the wrong way, is that the Risen Star corker gutted him and Mark Valeski and it will be a while before he's back to where it appeared he was headed. While Jones & Jones may OK a start Wednesday after his jog, Valeski appears to be sideways right now as well..

OMG, I totally forgot he ran in the Fla Derby.

While a bit better of a performance, perhaps, than his race in Louisianna, it really wasn't much to get excited about.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

OMG, I totally forgot he ran in the Fla Derby. While a bit better of a performance, perhaps, than his race in Louisianna, it really wasn't much to get excited about.

Neither was Thunder Gulch's Blue Grass..

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Neither was Thunder Gulch's Blue Grass..

I suppose. And I suppose you could fine quite a few Derby winners that had a lackluster, or worrisome final prep.

Secretariat for instance.

However, these horses had established form and had run in top races, distinguishing themselves quite well.

Can't really say that for El Padrino.

[Conrad]

El Padrino is getting a look because of his positive figure pattern.
He is supposedly set for a good performance, and his best puts him in contention (minus the big Bode number).

Initially I liked him but his last work has me concerned.

[Rootdog1]

"I'm very unhappy about the reports on El Padrino, but the picks were an attempt to send a message about how to approach the race."

Steve - What did you mean by this? Are the reports that he is not looking so well??? I had not heard that, so any info is great.

Many Thanks

[herkhorse]

Rousing Sermon is my suck up for 3rd or 4th Horse.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

"I'm very unhappy about the reports on El Padrino, but the picks were an attempt to send a message about how to approach the race."

Steve - What did you mean by this? Are the reports that he is not looking so well??? I had not heard that, so any info is great.

Many Thanks

GOOD!!!!

Not looking so GOOD!!!!!!

Why does everyone in horse racing insist on using "well" instead of "good"????? The HRTV and TVG people do this all the time and it drives me up a god.damn wall.

It has to be the fact that you are supposed to say "I don't feel well" or "I didn't play well" as opposed to "I don't feel good" or "I didn't play good". But in the sense of describing how a horse looks, it is OK to say "he looks good."

[Rootdog1]

Originally Posted by justindew

GOOD!!!!

Not looking so GOOD!!!!!!

Why does everyone in horse racing insist on using "well" instead of "good"????? The HRTV and TVG people do this all the time and it drives me up a god.damn wall.

It has to be the fact that you are supposed to say "I don't feel well" or "I didn't play well" as opposed to "I don't feel good" or "I didn't play good". But in the sense of describing how a horse looks, it is OK to say "he looks good."

Sounds like you are not feeling well. Did you get what I asking? sheeesh!

[Rootdog1]

You know what pisses me off? Your use punctuation. !!!!!!! and ?????? It is fine and well to just use one.

[slotdirt]

The Palm Meadows work seems disconcerting, but the track was messy. I will be looking forward to hearing Welsch's comments on him when the horse finally makes his way to Churchill.

[tywizard]

Is anyone else finding it impossible to construct a cost-effective tickets for tris and supers? I may limit to exactas and then try the Pick 3/4 with 4-5 of my top selections....

Steve - You mention looking over the past few Derby charts...I've looked at the past 10 PPs for the Derby and tried to compare relative to eventual outcome. I've noticed the following:

1. This group is unlike any group in the past 10 years....or any year that I can remember to be exact. Each of them seem to primed for a top performance.

2. I've posted this before elsewhere, the past five winners have been setup so that the Derby is third off the bench. With that in mind, this angle fits seven horses: Trinniberg, Done Talking, Daddy Nose Best, Sabercat, Dullahan, Gemologist and Union Rags.

Daddy Nose Best, Sabercat and Union Rags all appear to be training well at CD....Gemologist is undefeated and has two wins at the track...Dullahan seems plausible...Done Talking is logical underneath and Trinniberg is a toss.

I'm scared of Bodemiester not being on that list, but I'm thinking about using 5 of the seven above in the multi's.

Thoughts?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by justindew

GOOD!!!!

Not looking so GOOD!!!!!!

Why does everyone in horse racing insist on using "well" instead of "good"????? The HRTV and TVG people do this all the time and it drives me up a god.damn wall.

It has to be the fact that you are supposed to say "I don't feel well" or "I didn't play well" as opposed to "I don't feel good" or "I didn't play good". But in the sense of describing how a horse looks, it is OK to say "he looks good."

Sounds like you might just wann take a deep breath and then key "Went the Day Good" in your verticals on Saturday

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally I was going to use El Padrino underneath in exotics. The thought was his style fits well with how the race will go pace wise and he's bred to go long. But his last work didn't sound good at all especially for a horse who thrives on the off going. Besides having a horse that gets injured every year for Pletcher he also has one that sours on him just before the Derby. Last year Brethren was one of his top colts and just went South.To the point of not even going to The Derby. The year before it was Rule. I think El Padrino just became a toss for me even at his price.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

You know what pisses me off? Your use punctuation. !!!!!!! and ?????? It is fine and well to just use one.

lol
i'm still hung up on IC saying a point was mute, but that's a personal problem.