SAT - Churchill Downs (Kentucky Derby Day)

[Bogey]

Churchill Downs - Happy Derby Day POST SCRATCHES - MUDDY / SOFT Race 4 OFF the TURF


R1 - OC 100k/N2X

#3 Afford (3-1) 4TH
#2 Atigun (7-5) WON $4.20
#5 Politicallycorrect (6-1) 2ND
#1 Point Taken (7-2)

R2 - MSW 53k

#2 Big Ring (9-2) WON $12.20
#9 Kingwood (15-1) 3RD
#4 Master Cip (8-1)
#1 Rock N Glamour (8-1)

R3 - OC 75k/N1X

#5 Golden Ticket (3-1) 2ND
#10 Windsurfer (4-1) 4TH
#7 Z Dager (4-1)
#3 Agent Di Nozzo (10-1) 3RD

R4 - OC 80k/N3X (OFF Turf 8.5F)

#12 Tonto Fontenot (10-1)
#2 The Program (20-1) 2ND
#1 Southern Anthem (15-1)
#9 Derby Kitten (5-1) 4TH

R5 - OC 75k/N1X

#3 Mile High Magic (9-5) 2ND
#11 Jimmer (12-1)
#5 Big Blue Nation (6-1)
#1 Seven Lively Sins (10-1)

PK4 - 2 7 9 / 5 7 10 / 1 2 9 12 / 3 5 11 = $54 for $.50

R6 - G3 Twin Spires Turf Sprint (5F)

#4 Bridgetown (6-5) 2ND
#2 Great Attack (8-1) WON $10.80
#11 Chamberlain Bridge (5-1)
#10 Great Mills (5-1) 4TH

R7 - G2 Churchill Downs

#2 Alma d'Oro (10-1) 4TH
#3 Apriority (8-1)
#1 Smiling Tiger (3-1)
#4 Shackleford (2-1) WON $5.60

PK4 - 1 2 9 10 / 3 5 11 / 2 4 10 11 / 2 3 = $48 for $.50

R8 - G2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile

#3 Marketing Mix (5-2) 4TH
#4 Tapitsfly (5-1) 2ND
#10 Hungry Island (6-1) WON $13.80
#9 La Reine Lionne (6-1) 3RD

R9 - G1 Humana Distaff

#6 Groupie Doll (5-2) WON $8.20
#8 Musical Romance (4-1) 2ND
#7 Switch (2-1)
#3 Sassy Image (5-2)

R10 - G1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (9F)

#2 Turallure (5-2)
#8 Turbo Compressor (6-1)
#11 Papaw Bodie (30-1)
#10 Brillant Speed (12-1) 3RD

R11 - G1 Kentucky Derby

#1 Daddy Long Legs (30-1) - Two trips across the pond produce a wide draw in the BC Juvy and now the dreaded inside post.
#2 Optimizer (50-1) - Came down to earth in Arkansas Derby and should not make much of an impact here.
#3 Take Charge Indy (15-1) - Took advantage in the Florida Derby as El Padrino and Union Rags were playing a cat and mouse game . Things are different here. Odds will decrease because of the Borel factor.
#4 Union Rags (9-2) - Had a troubled trip in aforementioned Florida Derby and still managed to run well late when clear. Obvious top contender.
#5 Dullahan (8-1) - Proved Keeneland is his favorite surface, now must prove it on the dirt. Using cautiously underneath.
#6 Bodemeister (4-1) - Must rate after drawing inside of the other speed and must deal with some serious stalker/closers late. Most talented runner is probably the most likely of the bunch to end the Triple Crown drought.
#7 Rousing Sermon (50-1) - Has regressed from his 2yr old form and should only be considered for a minor piece in deep exotic tickets.
#8 Creative Cause (12-1) - Questions about his fitness a bit of a concern, but his record speaks for itself. Always brings it.
#9 Trinniberg (50-1) - No secret what the game plan will be, send and pray he holds on. Seems like the anchor will come out as they turn for home.
#10 Daddy Nose Best (15-1) - Wise guy horse has improved, but his local start was dreadful.
#11 Alpha (15-1) - His nerves will be tested as he is the 1st to load along with #1 Daddy Long Legs. Tricky read as he should relish the extra real estate.
#12 Propective (30-1) - Folded up the tent early when facing this company in BC Juvy. Tough assignment to turn the tables.
#13 Went the Day Well (20-1) - Same connections as last year's winner is about the only thing he has in common with Animal Kingdom.
#14 Hansen (10-1) - Draws perfectly from advantageous post, but must still answer if he can get the last furlong. Ramon helps the cause.
#15 Gemologist (6-1) - Reports are he looks great and brings unblemished record for top connections. Faces much better competition here.
#16 El Padrino (20-1) - Kind of like the forgotten horse especially after his slow work leading up to this event. He's regally bred for the distance and he's been in a dog fight before. Expecting a rebound effort and he would not mind a little moisture on the track.
#17 Done Talking (50-1) - The time to have him was in the Illinois Derby. Would have to improve tremendously to make any impact in the run for the roses.
#18 Sabercat (30-1) - Has been well beaten in his two 2012 starts after securing a spot in the starting gate in his Delta Jackpot victory.
[U]#19 I'll Have Another (12-1)[/u] - Not an ideal draw, but does have the luxury of having nothing but closers around him. Believe he can get in good position in the first turn and I know he has the guts down the lane. Major player. WON $32.60
#20 Liasion (50-1) - Looks like he peaked as a 2yo old and now has been passed by. The draw does not help his chances.

Selections:

#16 El Padrino
#19 I'll Have Another WON $33.60
#4 Union Rags
#6 Bodemeister 2ND
#10 Daddy Nose Best

PK6 - 2 4 10 11 / 1 2 3 4 / 3 / 6 8 / 2 / 4 6 16 19 = $256

PK5 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 / 3 / 6 8 / 2 8 / 4 6 16 19 = $56 for $.50

PK4 - 3 4 9 10 / 6 8 / 2 8 10 11 / 4 6 10 16 19 = $80 for $.50

R12 - Alw 58k/N2X

#4 Maan (4-1) 3RD
#2 Bet the Power (5-1) WON $5.80
#11 Enclosure (8-1)
#3 Shrill (9-2) 2ND

R13 - MSW 53k

#4 Z Camelot (4-1) - Comes down to earth after Florida Derby try and graduates. 3RD
#5 Parabellum (4-1)
#8 Flapsup (3-1)
#1 Dynamical (7-2) 2ND

Good Racing Luck

[The Devil]

Happy Derby Day !