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#1
05-09-2012, 08:28 AM
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5/9: Belmont Park ($37k C/O)
After luckily escaping Oaks Day intact, got nothing right on Derby Day and exited Louisville Saturday night having taken a bad beating. When I had a notion or inclusion with potential, I was wrong about something else that prevented any meaningful cashings. Was fine with 6-1 Hungry Island winning the Distaff Turf, but Tapitsfly's good effort interupted the tri. Had prepared for 11-1 Slim Shadey to run well in the Woodford Reserve but watched in disbelief as Little Mike just kept going.
As for Derby, I wasn't nearly as frustrated by its' outcome as the rest of the day's... I had looked for a meltdown scenario and played that way keying off Dullahan, but the pace frying concept didn't materialize between Bodemeister's remarkable performance and a speed-assisting surface. I'll Have Another was a horse that I couldn't endorse making just a 3rd start in 8 months and Bodemeister was being asked for a special effort at too short a price to take. I said pre-race that I thought Bodemeister's assignment was a Big Brown type of situation and I played against him as well. Those are the tough decisions to make playing Derby and you can be very right or very wrong. Had no complaints about my top choice as Desormeaux and Dullahan put their run in and fell 2 lengths short while the presser-closers I was looking for like Sabercat, El Padrino and Done Talking never put a run together at all. Prospective's race was over in the first 40 yards when clipping heels with Hansen and nearly losing Contreras. It was that kind of day and I hope my lack of success didn't doom your weekend. One thing to note coming out of Derby Day is quixotic results the stakes-laden card produces annually. Andy Serling noted that every year it seems some results are generated that defy explanation in the sequence and a review of the last 6 years backs that up. Very few favorites manage to come through on the Derby card and it should be remembered for next year... Turf Sprint/Eight Belles: $10.80, $8.80, $17.80, $9.60, $5.60, $11.60 Churchill Downs: $5.60, $28.60, $22.20, $10.60, $10.80, $18.40 Churchill DIS Turf: $13.80, $13.20, $15.40, $19.80, $26.20, $9.00 Humana Distaff: $8.20, $34.20, $19.20, $8.40, $30.00, $17.20 Woodford Reserve: $26.40, $17.00, $19.60, $5.60, $6.40, $18.80 Kentucky Derby: $32.60, $43.80, $18.00, $103.20, $6.80, $11.80 Carryover at Belmont Wednesday and don't forget that Thursday offers a huge Hi-5 C/O on the Downs nightcap... BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super) $37k C/O starts here.. The 4 droppers from MSW company (#'s 1-3-7-9) look right.. Most Likely: #1 Prince Arion 3-1 WON ($11.00) Best Value: #3 Secret Shifters 10-1 5th Next Best: #7 Big Herman 5-2 2nd Exotics Use: #9 Redhotlion 15-1 7th 5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Bellarella 5-2 3rd Best Value: #8 My Honey Laurie 5-1 5th Next Best: #3 Full N Sassy 4-1 8th Exotics Use: #10 Roman Renegade 6-1 6th 6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #15 Ea 2-1 3rd Best Value: #11 Red Leader 8-1 2nd Next Best: #10 Winaholic 12-1 4th 7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #2 Fast Fleet Cat 5-1 11th Next Best: #4 More Than Minted 7-5 8th Exotics Use: #14 Readygetsgold 6-1 4th Super Add: #13 My Trickster 6-1 6th 8th: Marta, F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD) Chess match group of 5 for this little stake and with very little pace present, look for Dominguez to control things with Hammy Smith's Aquitania.. Most Likely: #1 Aquitania 2-1 WON ($5.50) Next Best: #5 Her Smile 7-5 4th Exotics Use: #2 Late Stakes SCR (Wet track) 9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super) Most Likely: #16 Bedda Regina 3-1 WON ($10.00) Next Best: #6 World Premier 8-1 2nd Exotics Use: #15 So Much Heart 12-1 7th Super Add: #1 Proud Siren 20-1 7th <$150 P6 Play: 4: 1-3 5: 3-5-8 6: 15 7: 2-4-13-14 8: 1 9: 6-15-16 2x3x1x4x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144 <$50 P4 Play: 6: 10-11-15 7: 2-4-13-14 8: 1-5 9: 1-6-15-16 3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-09-2012 at 06:09 PM. 
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#2
05-09-2012, 09:23 AM
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OFF THE TURF
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
05-09-2012, 11:29 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
05-09-2012, 05:21 PM
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$131k DBL C/O!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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