6/27: Belmont Park ($40k C/O)

[Kasept]

Week starts with $40k carryover at Belmont on a very challenging sequence. I've offered up an <$100 ticket getting the feeling that small budgets will be hard-pressed to take this slate down and we may be better off focusing on doubles, P3's and the late P4..


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 3+, 10f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Start of a maddeningly tough sequence and a re-drawn group from Thursday's cancellation. Night Site (Giant's Causeway), the 3yo Juddmonte homebred out wonderful Sightseek, undoubtedly the horse to beat but Lexcano will need to make a trip happen from the #9 berth. As suggested by Andy Serling on ATR Tuesday, Suns Out Guns Out has done his best running in 9f tries and being by Empire Maker seems suited for this voyage as an alternative to the choice. Fact, Imaging, Silver Endurance and Coach Royal are all closely bunched after the top pair..

Most Likely: #9 Night Site 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Suns Out Guns Out 6-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Silver Endurance 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Imagining 6-1 DNF


5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Another Maiden group on lawn -- this time state bred fillies going seven-eighths -- and like the marathon above, there are those that have had opportunities and may be running out of chances. As Serling pointed out, Nishava, from capable John Salzman Jr., goes 2nd time and had hiccups in her debut. After her, there are the obvious contenders like Crypto Kitten (5-2) & Royal Suspicion (4-1) and a couple of intriguing 20-1 exotics booster types in Eurokay by Me and Monticello Doll. Islarama is a short 3-1 based on fast-ish dirt tries, but her turf prospects are highly dubious on pedigree..

Best Value: #7 Nishava 8-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Royal Suspicion 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Crypto Kitten 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Monticello Doll 20-1 8th


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Standard set of N2L turf sprinters. This set gets pretty murky after the top ML choices of Petey Cramer and Shotinthefog..

NOTE: Pretty important SCR of Rudy Rudy Rudy out of this. He figured to really help prompt the pace from out there. Was expecting Shotinthefog to run them down and wanted to single him, but Petey Cramer may be a P6 'must use' now..

Most Likely: #3 Shotinthefog 4-1 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #8 Petey Cramer 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Luigi P 8-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Shoutout 15-1 7th


7th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Very tricky group with a number of turf movers looking like jump up candidates..

Most Likely: #1 Namron 4-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Balance the Budget 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Thomas Hill 20-1 WON ($41.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Steel Bridge 7-2 8th


8th: Track Barron, 2yo, 5.5f (DD)

Expect many will count on Shanghai Bobby as a single, but remember these are 2yo's making 2nd-4th starts and can improve or regress readily. Note that only Cay to Pomeroy has gone 5f..

Most Likely: #4 Cay to Pomeroy 3-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Shanghai Bobby 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Video Storm 5-2 6th
Super Add: #5 Handsome Jack 6-1 2nd


9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f-IT

Group of suspects go 9 panels here and it seems like you want those that have yet to prove themselves hopeless..

Best Value: #8 Great Karoo 6-1 4th
Next Best: #10 The Kid N Me 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Adios Nardo 7-2 WON ($4.90)
Super Add: #12 Street Cruise 3-1 7th


<$100 P6 Play:

4: 6-9
5: 7
6: 3-8
7: 1-6
8: 2-4-6
9: 8-10

2x2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x $2 = $96


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 3-8
7: 1-2-4-6
8: 2-4-6
9: 3-8-10-12

2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 4 (3,11,12/2/2/3,4,13,14) Paid $303.50


Good luck!
Steve

[Bogey]

Taking a shot today!!

PK6 - 6 9 / 3 8 10 / 2 3 4 8 9 11 12 / 1 6 / 4 / 3 = $168

Good Racing Luck

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Pretty notable SCR of Rudy Rudy Rudy out of the 6th. He figured to really help prompt the pace from out there. Was expecting Shotinthefog to run them down and wanted to single him.. Is Petey Cramer a 'must add' now?

[Dylan Burke]

Picking one horse in each race as my "must use".

Race 4) #2 FACT...exceptional turf breeding; 2nd off a layoff

Race 5) #3 HLAO ROO...gets firm turf; shorter distance could help

Race 6) #3 SHOTINTHEFOG...should get better trip with Castellano; finished 1/2 behind next out winner.

Race 7) #8 PRINCE ARION...3 works since short layoff; won at this distance in mud; could even improve on grass

Race 8) #2 SHANGHAI BOBBY...top barn; working well at Belmont for 2nd career start

Race 9) #12 STREET CRUISE...Pletcher/Castellano; 140k purchase drops to new low. Post only knock

[Kasept]

Proverbial long time maiden type Coach Royal gets diploma. As discussed yesterday, these kind kill a lot of P6 plays as you can only use them on back-up plays. Bleech..

[Kasept]

Won't take much more to send this C/O to Thursday..

[ateamstupid]

These days, George Weaver is to turf sprints what Linda Rice used to be.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Dylan Burke

Race 5) #3 HLAO ROO...gets firm turf; shorter distance could help. WON ($20.80)

D/B,

Good work with the Gyarmati filly!

[Dylan Burke]

Originally Posted by Kasept

D/B,

Good work with the Gyarmati filly!

Thanks !!!

[Conrad]

George Weaver is the most overlaid trainer on the NY circuit and has been for about 4-5yrs now...i love him.
His winner in the 6th wasn't a big price and wasn't hard to come up with, but wait until SAR...he will get 'em home at odds.

[knickslions2]

Belmont 7


$40 win 1

Gl

[GPK]

I still wake up in cold sweats from having nightmares about Night Site's turf debut at Gulfstream.

[Kasept]

Oy.. Would like Thomas Hill to stay up here.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

steve nice call on tom hill..

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Oy.. Would like Thomas Hill to stay up here.

Should

[knickslions2]

Nice one steve

[Kasept]

Thx fellas.. Was lucky they didn't look at it though and that Ramon didn't object. He cut the #1 off.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thx fellas.. Was lucky they didn't look at it though and that Ramon didn't object. He cut the #1 off.

Nice job, Steve! I bet Thomas Hill last out and then leave off the pk4 today. I have to say though that I am shocked that Ramon did not object or that they didn't look at that, sure looked to me like he should have come down for interfering with the 1. The last week or so have not been stellar ones for the NY stewards.

[knickslions2]

Belmont 8

$20 win 4
$20 dd 4/8,10