Handicapping situations that create your best edge

[Calzone Lord]

I'm interested in hearing what people say are their best handicapping situations that give them an edge. Could be an angle as well.

[blackthroatedwind]

How interested are you?

[Calzone Lord]

I'm willing to walk into a few sewers if it might mean finding a gold nugget or Rolex watch.

A lot of stuff can be tested.

Jeff Mullins having 2 horses in a Maiden Claiming race. The longer odds of the two horses, wins

[Calzone Lord]

Almost anything involving Jeff Mullins will show a profit since 1996.

He very rarely enters 2 horses in a maiden claiming race. Maybe once or twice a year. I take note and bet.

[Calzone Lord]

My favorite Jeff Mullins angle is with turf sprinters and 1st time turf sprints...especially if they're new to his barn.

He's a wildly underrated trainer...even for a well known hop artist.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

My favorite Jeff Mullins angle is with turf sprinters and 1st time turf sprints...especially if they're new to his barn.

He's a wildly underrated trainer...even for a well known hop artist.

Would you be able to run a scan on Ramon on horses of odds > 8.9.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

My favorite Jeff Mullins angle is with turf sprinters and 1st time turf sprints...especially if they're new to his barn.

He's a wildly underrated trainer...even for a well known hop artist.

I like maidens making their first start on a fast track after catching an off track in their debut (even more so if running against mostly first time starters).

[Calzone Lord]

Those two I should be able to fool around with.

Beaten lengths can be greatly exaggerated on wet tracks and some horses will become rank or just want to stop once they get slop in their face ... so I think it's possible that is a situation that can produce a lot of form reversals in their next race. How much value there is from a generic sense ... I wouldn't be able to guess.

Dominguez has been a pet jockey of mine since the late 90's. I've broken him down every which way. His true strength is with turf routes, and any variation of odds I expect will show that.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

speed n fade in debut, along with a drop in class or surface switch to breeding ie turf horse.,first lasix and premier jock on. the perfect storm of angles imo

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

speed n fade in debut, along with a drop in class or surface switch to breeding ie turf horse.,first lasix and premier jock on. the perfect storm of angles imo

You snowballed angles so this would be harder to test...

Lets say the speed and fade came in a slow paced race and they're dropping in class but entered in a race with more early speed?

I know that's usually not the case, but if it was, the more determental pace scenario would undermine this badly.

A lot of the big form reversals with class dropping speed and fade maidens are because they're usually dropping from much faster paced races into spots where they can secure a clear early lead without being sent and dueling under pressure.

I am a big fan of horses who switch from breeding weakness to breeding strength for the first time ... but something like that is subjective.

First lasix usually helps...but I'm not sure how much value it has.

The jockey switch to a higher percentage rider is something I doubt would have value in a generic sense.

[MaTH716]

I would think that having a strong handle on any previous track biases (pro and con), would yield a very generous edge next time out. Obviously there would be no numbers to back this up.

[Vegaskid]

Baffert 2+ entries, always take the higher odds runner...

Equipment change wake ups...

Been studying trainers who darkens form by surface/distance switches....

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

your right that was a bit unfair.the problem is the data is at the bottom of the drf pps..or tgs for all to see.trainer intention really is the ultimate angle.some of them do the same thing over and over with alot of success.imo

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I would think that having a strong handle on any previous track biases (pro and con), would yield a very generous edge next time out. Obviously there would be no numbers to back this up.

Yes, for sure.

Especially if your careful and conservative when it comes to your standards of labeling a bias.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Vegaskid

Been studying trainers who darkens form by surface/distance switches....

Specifically who?

For instance, Scott Lake was always a fantastic bet against with routers and stretch-outs. Simply, his training methods obviously didn't suit them.

When Lake took speed and fade sprinters from below avg trainers, he was a true magician. But that angle only had great value for so long.

[MaTH716]

Take graded stakes out of the equation, but when a jock shows up at a track for only one mount. (for example if a Parx jockey came to Monmouth to ride one race with an allowance/higher claimer horse he won with last out at Parx)

There wouldn't be numbers to back somethig like this up. Besides I think it only works at smaller tracks.

[Gaelic Storm]

A second time starter who was bet first out and ran poorly.

[letswastemoney]

The "favorite surface" example you keep using with horses like Middie is always good (although I realize Middie lost his last polytrack start).