New Zealand Racing, 2012-13

[_ed_]

Zinko has the pedigree to love the distance, so you could be right! He's never run a bad race in his life, and I'm sure he won't in the Derby either.

My upsetter might be a horse called Alert. We'll get to him in a day or two.

[_ed_]

Interview with Zinko's trainer:
http://www.nzracing.co.nz/SystemTemp...ArticleID=5358

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

Interview with Zinko's trainer:
http://www.nzracing.co.nz/SystemTemp...ArticleID=5358

Very cool. I had never heard of her before... hope he does well for her.

Okay Alert? You need to keep me up to date!

Getting closer... SO exciting!

[_ed_]

First, yet another filly.

SORIANO

3 f Savabeel - Call Me Lily
Breeder: D Howell
Owner: D Howell
Trainer: Graeme & Debbie Rogerson
Jockey: ??? (was Opie Bosson, but he's gone for Castlzeberg)

14 starts
2 wins
4 seconds
2 thirds

Major races:
1st Eulogy Stakes G3
2nd Eight Carat Classic G2
2nd Sir Tristram Fillies' Classic G2
3rd Royal Stakes G2

Best replay to watch:
Eulogy Stakes, Awapuni, 15 December
http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx

Derby odds: 14.00

+ Not further back than 3rd in her last six starts, all in stakes class.
+ Very stamina-heavy pedigree and running style.

- Again, the not-so-great record for fillies in the Derby in recent years.
- 0-3 against Fix this season, and she has to face that filly again here.
- Hasn't taken on the boys in a stakes race so far this season.

If it hadn't been for Fix, Soriano would probably be the dominant horse through the 3-year-old-filly races this summer - she just keeps being narrowly beaten by her. This could be her best chance of turning the tables on Fix, since it seems like the 2400m will suit her heaps better than it will Fix. But then there's Habibi and a big group of high-class male horses too, and she hasn't faced any of them yet. She could finish strongly into a minor placing, but it's just a bit hard to see her winning this one.

[_ed_]

And here he is...

ALERT

3 g Zabeel - Kay's Awake (multiple G1-placed mare)
Breeder: Monovale Holdings Ltd
Owner: Te Akau Stud
Trainer: Jason Bridgman
Jockey: Matthew Cameron

6 starts
1 win
2 seconds
1 third

Major races:
None

Best replay to watch:
Maiden win, Ellerslie, 12 December
http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx

Derby odds: 16.00

+ All-time great NZ sire (sire of three NZ Derby winners: St Reims, Helene Vitality and Zonda), and his dam was second or third in three G1 races behind the likes of Seachange and Darci Brahma.
+ Running style looks ideally suited to a mile and a half.
+ Seems to be steadily approving and set to peak on Derby day.
+ Te Akau, Bridgman, Cameron is a champion combination.

- Untested against this class of opposition.

With the Kentucky Derby, people every year talk about a 'wise-guy horse' outside the favoured group. If there was one of those in the 2013 New Zealand Derby, it would have to be Alert. He's been steadily improving in the lower grades, slowly but steadily creeping upwards under everyone's radar. He has the pedigree ($150,000 yearling), and he has the owner-trainer-jockey combination. But he hasn't run against anything close to the class of horse he'll be taking on in the Derby, so he has to take a massive step up. But the way he's been running lately just makes it look like he might be capable of doing it. He just might spring a monumental Derby upset.

[my miss storm cat]

Happy you got to Alert and will watch replay tomorrow, as well as the others from today.

One word.

Nashville????????????????

Cheers to Veyron for his 2nd, no idea what happened with Ocean Park. I really had thought Final Touch would win.

Touche.... another replay have not yet watched but had hoped...

Ah well.

[_ed_]

Nashville... Never saw that coming. He's a G2 winner and has always looked talented, but I thought he was out of his depth in that race against those horses. I was wrong!

Touche was a bit unlucky. The winner was really perfectly ridden - stole the race from in front. Touche was flying the last bit, though!

Recite v Bounding - WOW. What a race. One of my favourites of the year so far.

Six days till the Derby! A few more horses to get through.

[_ed_]

DEANE MARTIN

3 g Keeper - Ela Nimue
Breeder: Cambridge Stud
Owner: G J Ashby, A D Burrett, S B Doull, P Hay, R J Limbrick, J H Martin, C Morgan, A C Peard, B J Wallace & D West
Trainer: Bruce Wallace
Jockey: Sam Spratt

9 starts
2 wins
2 seconds
1 third

Major races:
1st Championship Stakes Prelude

Best replay to watch:
Championship Stakes Prelude, Ellerslie, 16 December
http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx

Derby odds: 16.00

+ No doubts about his stamina - pedigree is full of it, and he's won a stakes race over 2100m.

- He had a long break after his OK sixth behind Habibi in the G2 Championship Stakes on 1 January. He just returned last weekend with a good fourth over a mile - his last start before the Derby. Will he be race fit?

Briefly the Derby favourite after his stakes win in December, Deane Martin has faded a little and fallen off the radar so far in 2013. He was a bit disappointing in the Championship Stakes, and then he wasn't seen until just last weekend. So he's something of a mystery horse going into the Derby - will he be race fit? The Championship Stakes was the worst race of his career - was it a fluke bad performance that can be thrown out, or was he out of depth in that class? It's really hard to predict what we're going to get from this horse on Derby day.

[_ed_]

I like these Derby preview videos on the NZTR website. Here's a couple more.

Solar Eclipse & Soriano (Debbie Rogerson): http://www.nzracing.co.nz/SystemTemp...ArticleID=5417

Castlzeberg: http://www.nzracing.co.nz/SystemTemp...ArticleID=5369

Valbuena & Deane Martin (filmed before Valbuena's big win!): http://www.nzracing.co.nz/SystemTemp...ArticleID=5367

[my miss storm cat]

Thanks for those, ed, and for all your hard work.

When will we know the field????? Dying here!

[_ed_]

Derby day fields come out in just over one hour.

[_ed_]

Here they are!
http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...-Overview.aspx

Valbuena's out.

[my miss storm cat]

Why is he out? What on earth happened?

That's a shame.

SO excited! Oooh and The Hombre and Durham Town and oh Pinzaara... how exciting!!!!

Feel like I'm having a heart attack!

[_ed_]

I think there was a big offer for an overseas sale that they were considering - might have been Hong Kong. I guess that must have gone through, and the new owners want him straight away. A shame, but I think he'll do well there.

[my miss storm cat]

I just read this and figured I'd post it. Glad he's not going to hk and you know how much I love them there but yeah..... the next Ocean Park sounds good to me.

No author listed.

Wallace pulls the pin on Valbuena Derby aspirations

28 February 2013, 11:13 a.m.

Takanini trainer Bruce Wallace yesterday withdrew Valbuena from the three-year-old Classic after consulting with breeder-owners Peter and Philip Vela.

Wallace said it had been a tough decision and his racing manager Allan Peard had been keen to push ahead and start but after factoring in his physical immaturity, not having their preferred choice of jockey - Mark Du Plessis - and the complications of a failed sale, the outcome was to turn him out.

''It was toss of the coin stuff,'' Wallace said yesterday.

''Allan was very keen to start him and if he'd won we'd have looked heroes but if he didn't we'd have said he's still six months away and really we already know that now.

''He was always going to need time. It was his achillies heel and James [McDonald] underwrote that when he won on him in the Avondale Guineas and he said then he wondered whether we'd got to the bottom of him.

''He's 16.2 hands high and if I stand beside him he's probably only same as me wide so we'll send him to the paddock and give him time to develop. Mentally he's matured a heap but he still needs to mature physically.

''There was talk he could go to Brisbane for the winter but I'd rather turn him out for a long spell and then look at Hastings, Sydney and Melbourne in the spring and hopefully he might be the next Ocean Park with a bit of luck.''

Valbuena was under offer soon after his Avondale Guineas win on February 17 which had led to some doubt about his participation in the Derby and at that point Du Plessis was told to take another ride and he was booked for Fix.

Wallace yesterday said negotiations between the Vela brothers and the Hong Kong interest had failed to reach an agreement.

''There was genuine interest in him from Hong Kong and there were deliberations about the price aspirations of the owners through this whole process,'' Wallace said.

''He's still for sale and he's the same horse he was when he won the Avondale Guineas but the reality is he's still six months away. We'll still have a Derby runner with Deane Martin in the race but he's largely been the forgotten horse the last couple of weeks.''

Valbuena's withdrawal enabled the Stephen McKee-trained The Grinner to clinch the last spot in the 18-horse field for the Derby, which will be run at 5.46pm and broadcast around the world, including for the first time in three years to Hong Kong, where betting will be allowed.

Favourite Habibi drew barrier one and is the $2.80 favourite.

[_ed_]

Oh, interesting. Well, it's good that they're thinking of the horse and his physical developent, but it is a shame - he would have been in my top three picks for sure.

Derby odds:
Choice Bro 14
Castlzeberg 5
Zinko 26
Deane Martin 14
Weissmuller 16
Addictive Habit 50
King Kamada 26
Solar Eclipse 60
Corporal Lincoln 60
Alert 14
Dubai Shuffle 26
Saint Kitt 80
Celtic Chief 31
The Grinner 30
Fix 9
Habibi 2.80f
Soriano 18
Kidwelly 30

[_ed_]

And here are some of the more interesting probables for the other big races later in the week.

G1 Auckland Cup (Wed)
Sangster
Annie Higgins
Chaparrone
Spiro
Blood Brotha
My Scotsgrey
Single Minded


G3 Sunline Vase (Wed)
Abidewithme
Atacama
Costume
More Than Sacred
Aurora Lights
Ray's Girl


G3 Westbury Classic (Wed)
Xanadu
Planet Rock
Fazzle


G1 Diamond Stakes (Sat)
Ruud Awakening
Bounding


G1 NZ Stakes (Sat)
Veyron
Ocean Park
Artistic


G3 Mr Tiz Trophy (Sat)
Rollout The Carpet

[_ed_]

Derby jockeys who have won it before:

JONATHAN RIDDELL (Choice Bro) – Jimmy Choux 2011

MICHAEL WALKER (Weissmuller) – Military Move 2010

VINNIE COLGAN (Habibi) – Redoute’s Dancer 2007, Helene Vitality 1999, Zonda 1997, Roysyn 1995 (equal record for most NZ Derby wins by a jockey)

MICHAEL COLEMAN (Kidwelly) – Xcellent 2004, Cut The Cake 2003

NOEL HARRIS (King Kamada) – Hail 2000

[my miss storm cat]

Crazy odds on Zinko, didn't realize who that was abord Xcellent (I know... how did I not know that?! Duh.), and whoa those are looking like some fields!

Every day I'm overwhelmed and you've just added to it!

Easy for me to sit here doing nothing and ask you BUT... The Grinner? Can you profile him when and if you have the time?

Thanks ed!

[_ed_]

Quick profiles of The Grinner and the rest of the field...

ADDICTIVE HABIT
Trainer: Lee Somervell
3 g Colombia - Chasing The Habit
10 starts; 1 win, 4 seconds, 0 thirds
Good seconds to Habibi in two G2 races in December-January (here's a replay of one of them: http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx), but disappointing in his last two. Seems to prefer rain-affected tracks.


KING KAMADA
Trainer: Lisa Latta
3 g Shinko King - Marsanne
9 starts; 1 win, 2 seconds, 3 thirds
Stakes placed at Ellerslie over 2100m in December (http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx), but he hasn't really developed since then the way I thought he might. Really expected him to win his last couple of races if he was going to be a real Derby contender.


SOLAR ECLIPSE
Trainer: Graeme & Debbie Rogerson
3 c Iffraaj - Dance On The Moon
10 starts; 1 win, 0 seconds, 2 thirds
I really liked this horse at the time of his 3rd to Habibi in the Championship Stakes (http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx), but again, he hasn't done enough since then to really catch my eye.


CORPORAL LINCOLN
Trainer: Lisa Latter
3 g Fastnet Rock - Salsa
7 starts; 1 win, 2 seconds, 0 thirds
Well-bred, and a good maiden win three starts back before an OK ninth in the Karaka Mile. Needs to lift his game, though.


DUBAI SHUFFLE
Trainer: Gareth McRae & Andrew Clarken
3 g Dubai Destination - Musical Magic
4 starts; 1 win, 0 seconds, 1 third
Nice win at Ellerslie last start (http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx), but that was just a maiden. Big step up here!


SAINT KITT
Trainer: Kelly Burne
3 g Keeper - Southern Cry
9 starts; 1 win, 1 second, 0 thirds
He's keeps giving nice performances, but they've all been in much weaker company than this.


CELTIC CHIEF
Trauner: Shaune Ritchie
3 g Golan - Divine Proportion
5 starts; 1 win, 1 second, 0 thirds
Caught the eye with his fast-finishing 5th in the Waikato Guineas (http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx), and he was OK when 6th in the Avondale Guineas too. If he finds another couple of lengths, he could cause a massive upset.


THE GRINNER
Trainer: Stephen McKee
3 g O'Reilly - The Grin (so a full-sister to dual G1 winner The Jewel, and G2 winners Star Affair and The One)
4 starts; 1 win, 0 seconds, 0 thirds
Broke through for a maiden win last start, and it was an impressive performance (http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/4...ce-Detail.aspx). He's one of the best-bred horses in the field, and the distance should be no problem. But, like with Dubai Shuffle, it's a big step up from a maiden to the Derby.


KIDWELLY
Trainer: Michael Moroney & Chad Ormsby
3 f Dylan Thomas - Maakel
9 starts; 1 win, 1 second, 2 thirds
Trained by 3-time Derby winner Moroney (Great Command 1996, Cut The Cake 2003, Xcellent 2004), this filly has looked pretty good in some strong 3yo fillies company this season. But she just can't quite get past Fix, and I'm not sure she's ever going to be able to turn the tables on that filly. But the distance is definitely going to suit.