5/3: Churchill Downs (139th Kentucky Oaks)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

A little tough to trust 0-for-2013 Vicki Oliver here, but Liberated is simply supposed to beat these..

Most Likely: #2 Liberated 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Anahauc 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Magic Union 4-1 WON ($21.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Diva Spirit 6-1 5th


2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Alleghany Angel 3-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Heaven's Saint 8-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Profitiza 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Kansas 4-1 3rd


3rd: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

One of the trickiest reads of the day with a crazy variety of comebackers, stretchouts and surface-switchers coming together from last starts at Keeneland, Turfway, Delta, Woodbine, Santa Anita and Fair Grounds.. What the what? I'm not taking a short price..

Best Value: #8 Noble Charlotte 15-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Moment of Majesty 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Fortune Play 15-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Cozze Up Lady 5-2 2nd


4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Love Train 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Sweet Shirley Mae 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Magical Moon 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Speedinthruthecity 7-2 WON ($15.40)


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

That was a nice debut effort by Strike Charmer into a slow pace at KEE. Anything near that ML may be generous..

Most Likely: #10 Strike Charmer 10-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Zadina 7-2 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #6 Taylor Street 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Bail Me Out 3-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 4-6
3: 1-2-4-6-8-9
4: 1-7-8
5: 5-6-8-10

2x6x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: 28th La Troienne (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

You know I love me some On Fire Baby, but the Shively heroine won't be sneaking away from anyone here as she did in the Apple Blossom. Believe You Can and More Chocolate both will exert pressure no matter how they spill out of the gate while Authenticity figures to enjoy a stalk and pounce trip. Rock solid Padua mare has been Verrazano's willing workmate and will be a nice value..

Best Value: #2 Authenticity 6-1 WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #3 More Chocolate 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Believe You Can 7-5 3rd
Super Add: #5 On Fire Baby 8-5 2nd


7th: 28th Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Would love to start P5 with just top pair and see it play out as it looks with Kitten's Dumplings and Wave Theory slightly better than rest of cast. Birdlover faced an authentic tigress in Scarlet Strike. Tokyo Time commands respect..

Most Likely: #3 Kitten's Dumplings 4-1 WON ($8.40)
Best Value: #10 Wave Theory 9-2 DNF (Dropped rider)
Next Best: #9 Tokyo Time 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Birdlover 4-1 6th


<$50 P4 Play:

4: 1-7-8
5: 5-6-8-10
6: 2-3-4-5
7: 3-10

3x4x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


8th: 58th Eight Belles (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Thought the Puerto Rican import Fusaichiswonderful was pretty good from the get-go and Mott has been very deliberate handling Calistoga. Those two top the tabs but are also eligible to engage in a deadly duel. As in the Edgewood, would be well-served for the multis with just the pair, but Simms 3-for-3 Blueeyesintherain impressed at OP in her 3yo bow and will sit a nice trip..

Most Likely: #14 Calistoga 7-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Fusaichiswonderful 9-2 2nd
Best Value:#3 Blueeyesintherain 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Gold Medal Dancer 15-1 9th


9th: 10th Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Even without Fort Larned, a superb edition of this..

Most Likely: #8 Bourbon Courage 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Macho Macho 5-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Cyber Secret 7-2 8th-DQ'd from 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Take Charge Indy 4-1 WON ($7.60)


10th: 22nd American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Fascinating group and some pace has already exited with the SCR of Redwood Kitten. There's no reason why Bashaar won't take to lawn with half brother Almusafa proven on it..

Most Likely: #2 Bashaar 8-1 9th
Best Value: #11 Joelito 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 War Dancer 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Fire Guard 8-1 10th
Super Add: #6 Positively 15-1 8th


11th: 139th Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, Super Hi-5, Oaks-Derby Double, Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3)

This is as good an Oaks group as most can remember, but it presents a bit of a quandary from the wagering perspective given the overwhelmingly likely win presence of Dreaming of Julia. The Pletcher-Stonestreet favorite proved in the GP Oaks that she can sit comfortably, so while she figures to pick up the pacesetters as she did Live Lively in Florida, the collapsing speeds will be prime targets for the moderately talented off the pace types. Could some portion of Midnight Lucky, Beholder, Rose to Gold, Silsita and/or Close Hatches stay on behind Dreaming of Julia? Sure. But one, two or three of Unlimited Budget, Princess of Sylmar, Pure Fun and even Seaneen Girl can chug along and line up behind her in the super too..

Most Likely: #8 Dreaming of Julia 3-1
Next Best: #2 Midnight Lucky 9-2
Exotics Use: #4 Unlimited Budget 7-2
Best Value: #7 Pure Fun 30-1
Super Add: #6 Princess of Sylmar 20-1


<$75 P5 Play:

7: 3-9-10
8: 2-14
9: 6-7-8-9
10: 2-4-5-6-10-11
11: 8

3x2x4x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-14
9: 6-7-8-9
10: 2-4-5-6-10-11
11: 2-8

3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$30 Oaks-Derby Double:

Fri. 10: 2-4-8
Sat. 12: 12-16 (3-6-11-18)

3x2 = 6 x $3 = $18
3x4 = 12 x $1 = $12


<$30 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3:

Fri. 10: 2-4-8
Sat. 11: 8-9
Sat. 12: 3-6-11-12-16

3x2x5 = $30


12th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f

Most Likely: #5 Double Gelato 3-1
Best Value: #12 Moonlight Caper 10-1
Next Best: #3 Delilahjane 6-1
Exotics Use: #11 Sky Girl 4-1


Good luck!
Steve