6/8: Belmont Park (Belmont Stakes Day)

[Kasept]

A long -- and rather soggy -- Triple Crown season draws to a close Saturday with New York having been as well drenched by rain as Louisville and Baltimore in the earlier stops. Of course the Belmont also is the end of the first half of the year for the 3yo's we have come to view as the elite and this edition of the feature enjoys the Derby and Preakness winners as headliners. As always, it's been a pleasure and privilege bringing you the coverage of the Derby Trail all year and Triple Crown these past 5 weeks and I hope the information delivered has been valuable. Hope everyone enjoyed the eclectic week of shows from Belmont. Best of luck today!


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


Rain has stopped at this hour (6a) and blue sky actually is peaking through the clouds here in Garden City. If you heard NYRA trackman Glen Kozak on ATR Friday, you know the track may be as 'dry' as "good" by race time today, but will certainly start as muddy. Depending on the drying out element, expect the track to be very fast to start the afternoon. The sandy Belmont surface can get very gummy/tacky as it dries and horses can labor over that as the day goes on. The turf will by soft at worst/yielding at best. 3rd race is off the turf. Stakes, 12th and 13th remain on..


1st: NY-OC/C, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Master Cip 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Tycoon Cat 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Overextended 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Saint Arthur 6-1 7th


2nd: OC/C, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Favored Integrity (3-1) is OK but needs to improve to beat a few of these. Respect but don't fear..

Most Likely: #1e Jacobson entry 4-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Whatabouthonor 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Integrity 3-1 WON ($8.90)
Exotics Use: #5 Odea 6-1 9th


3rd: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Isn'tshewonderful 2-1 9th
Next Best: #14 Concealed 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Raven Rise 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Atlantic's Smile 5-1 7th


4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

SCR #8 Captain Davrick who won Friday and without him, this race feels like a bit of a mess..

Most Likely: #1 El Genio 12-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Pete and David 15-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Native Singer 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Bernardo 15-1 3rd

5th: MSW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Rap d'Oro 8-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Howie's Tiz 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Sneaky Blowout 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Risky Asset 4-1 8th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-5-7-9
3: 13
4: 1-2-4-9-10-11
5: 1-3-6-9

4x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


6th: Easy Goer, 3yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$1,000,000 Guaranteed P6 starts here..

As discussed yesterday with Nick Tammaro & Mike Beer, Power Broker the obvious 'beat me' horse but there will be pressure from outside if he wants to do it from in front. Watch Risky Asset in the 5th for possible added flattery of Wabbajack here..

Most Likely: #2 Power Broker 7-5 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #8 Wabbajack 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 New Line 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Micromanage 12-1 2nd


7th: 35th True North H. (G2), 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

"Z" entry looms tough but Sage Valley was spectacular in Baltimore 3 weeks ago sending my day into a tailspin. Off the Jak trains at Calder where he likely has run over any kind of moistured surface he'll see today..

Most Likely: #1e Zayat ownership entry 7-5 WON/2nd ($3.60)
Next Best: #6 Sage Valley 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Off the Jak 15-1 4th


8th: 20th Just a Game (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Been anticipating this heat since it became clear that Mizdirection and Centre Court were coming and then event was enhanced by thriller from Stephanie's Kitten and Hungry Island at Churchill. Even with possible SCR of Dayatthespa, race should be outstanding. 'Spa' status a big issue here with Mizdirection and she the most interested in front end dominance. May need to reevaluate approach to this as we await Chad Brown call..

NOTE: Chad Brown waiting as long as possible before deciding on Dayatthespa remaining in race..

Most Likely: #3 Centre Court 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Hungry Island 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Stephanie's Kitten 5-2 WON ($8.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Better Lucky 12-1 2nd


9th: 29th Woody Stephens (G2), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Have been big booster of Let Em Shine and think he may just have the kind of breakaway foot that sends everyone into panic mode early. Plenty of options though if you are decided in other pacey direction or envision any of the possible scenarios which certainly includes an utter meltdown. Absolutely tremendous assembly for this..

Most Likely: #11 Let Em Shine 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Declan's Warrior 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Forty Tales 5-1 WON ($19.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Honorable Dillon 12-1


10th: 112th Manhattan H. (G1), 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Point of Entry being judiciously handled by Shug and while he has to give 5-11# to field, seems overwhelming with these..

Most Likely: #1 Point of Entry 3-5 WON ($3.10)
Best Value: #8 Twilight Eclipse 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Optimizer 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Side Road 20-1 7th


11th: 145th Belmont S. (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD)

This feels like it is a Belmont ripe for a chaotic result, yet would anyone be surprised if the top 3 from the Derby (Orb, Golden Soul, Revolutionary) and the Preakness winner (Oxbow) comprised the superfecta? As discussed on ATR extensively, with the likelihood of a spirited pace up front, having the sustained running style types as the core of your play is the suggested approach and the Derby 1-2-3 fulfill that requirement. Oxbow has been 'hickory' as they say, and his Shackleford style Derby to Preakness heroics beat me badly as images of Lukas' Dublin dogged my perception of him going into Baltimore. The Derby also-rans that arrive here (Frac Daddy, Overanalyze, Giant Finish, Will Take Charge, Vyjack, Palace Malice) vary in interest levels with most not having enthusiastic appeal as win candidates. That gets us to the newcomers in the form of Freedom Child, Incognito, Midnight Taboo and filly Unlimited Budget. While Peter Pan winner and morning standout Freedom Child is garnering a lot of attention, it feels like the draw guarantees he will be pressured and even harassed from the outset. He can beat me at what will be underlay odds. Incognito is by a Belmont winner out of the Starlight filly that swept the CCAO and Mother Goose at Belmont but has my attention for a silly additional reason.. the blue jacket. After exposure in an International humiliation with the steroid scandal, it is hard to believe Godolphin moves from Darley maroon on the Lasix-free A.P. Indy son to be embarrassed here. Todd Pletcher is 8/1-3-3 with his Belmont runners since '06 and the winner was of course filly Rags to Riches. Unlimited Budget is a nice horse that ran a nice race in the Oaks but I think she'll be hard pressed to be a part of this late. I committed to Orb early on for this spot and will stay the course, but encourage creative thinking to your ticket building. The distance -- and of course the added uncertainty about the track condition -- make this a quirky event. It's a full, fun field and you should be swinging for a score..

Most Likely: #5 Orb 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Revolutionary 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Overanalyze 12-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Will Take Charge 20-1 10th
Super Add: #6 Incognito 20-1 4th


<$150 P6 Play:

6: 2-5-7-8
7: 1-6
8: 1-2-3
9: 11
10: 1
11: 3-5-9

4x2x3x1x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-3-6-7
9: 1-5-7-11
10: 1
11: 3-5-6-9-10

5x4x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50


12th: NY-OC/C, 3+, 7f-T (DD)

Delighted Dee Tee gets to participate on a day like this and My Pal of Pals comes into the race well off his maiden breaking performance 3+ weeks ago. Needs to step forward again from that effort and handle ground with give, but has been flattered by Papa Freud and Campogiovanni out his '12 races and is an overlay at 30-1..

Most Likely: #7 Gimme Credit 8-5 5th
Best Value: #8 My Pal of Pals 30-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Sky Blue Pink 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Visionandaprayer 5-1 10th


13th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Very little pace here and if Lezcano is clever, he gets Foolish Tiger in front..

Most Likely: #1 Nineinthenine 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 J W Blue 4-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Foolish Tiger 15-1 WON ($27.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Yankee Fortune 6-1 4th


<$50 P4 Play:

10: 1
11: 3-5-6-9-10
12: 3-5-7-8-10
13: 1-3-4-7

1x5x5x4 = 100 x .50 = $50


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

[mclem0822]

Nice call on Foolish Tiger Steve! Thanks

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by mclem0822

Nice call on Foolish Tiger Steve! Thanks

THX Clem.. One of the isolated successes on an otherwise poor afternoon.