Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Stakes Archive
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 03-26-2014, 04:58 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,283
Default 3/29 (MEY): Dubai World Cup

2nd (9:10) Godolphin Mile (G2)

About 1 Mile (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 1 Penitent (GB) O'Brien J P O''Meara David 126 40-1
2 2 Gabrial (IRE) Hughes R Fahey Richard 126 40-1
3 3 Glory Awaits (IRE) Spencer J Ryan Kevin A 126 40-1
4 4 Eastern Rules (IRE) Foley S Halford Michael 126 20-1
5 5 Soft Falling Rain (SAF) Hanagan P G de Kock Michael F 126 9-2
6 6 Elleval (IRE) Lynch F Marnane David 126 15-1
7 7 Forjatt (IRE) Buick W T Selvaratnam Dhruba J 126 40-1
8 8 Gold City (IRE) Mullen R Seemar Sateesh 126 20-1
9 9 Flotilla (FR) Lemaire C P Delzangles Mike 121 12-1
10 10 Shuruq De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 121 3-1
11 11 Mull of Killough (IRE) Moore R Chapple-Hyam Jane 126 30-1
12 12 Capital Attraction O'Shea T P Oertel Ernst 126 10-1
13 13 Haatheq O'Neill D Al Raihe Ali R 126 30-1
14 14 Brightline (JPN) Fukunaga Y Sameshima Ippo 126 12-1
15 15 Variety Club (SAF) Marcus A Ramsden Joey 126 4-1
16 16 Limario (GER) Dobbs P J Watson Doug 126 20-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / Daily Double



3rd (9:45) Dubai Gold Cup (G2)

About 2 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 1 Dabadiyan (IRE) Foley S Halford Michael 120 15-1
2 2 Star Empire (SAF) Soumillon C de Kock Michael F 126 5-1
3 3 Ernest Hemingway (IRE) O'Brien J P O'Brien Aidan P 126 12-1
4 4 Moment In Time (IRE) Crowley J V Simcock David 121 30-1
5 5 Ralston Road (IRE) O'Shea T P Seemar Sateesh 120 30-1
6 6 Songcraft (IRE) Barzalona M bin Suroor Saeed 126 6-1
7 7 Cavalryman (GB) De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 126 5-2
8 8 Joshua Tree (IRE) Moore R Dunlop Edward 126 10-1
9 9 Seismos (IRE) Atzeni A Wohler Andreas 126 15-1
10 10 Jamr (GB) de Vries A bin Harmash Ahmad 126 60-1
11 11 Saddler's Rock (IRE) McDonogh Daragh P Oxx J. 126 30-1
12 12 Now We Can (GB) Thulliez T Clement Nicolas 126 20-1
13 13 Sheikhzayedroad (GB) Lane M Simcock David 126 60-1
14 14 Certerach (IRE) Spencer J Halford Michael 126 8-1
15 15 Simenon (IRE) Smullen P J Mullins William P 126 20-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / Daily Double



4th (10:25) UAE Derby (G2)

About 1 3/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 1 Safety Check (IRE) Buick W T Appleby Charles 121 30-1
2 2 Paximadia (AUS) De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 131 15-1
3 3 Cooptado (ARG) Dobbs P J Watson Doug 131 8-1
4 4 Long John (AUS) Barzalona M Appleby Charles 131 3-1
5 5 Giovanni Boldini Moore R O'Brien Aidan P 121 5-2
6 6 Emirates Flyer (GB) Fallon K bin Suroor Saeed 121 30-1
7 7 Sir Jack Layden (GB) Dettori L Brown David H 121 20-1
8 8 Toast of New York Spencer J Osborne Jamie 121 20-1
9 9 Asmar (IRE) Hughes R Nass Fawzi A 121 6-1
10 10 Sir John Hawkins O'Donoghue C O'Brien Aidan P 121 12-1
11 11 Jallota (GB) Crowley J V de Kock Michael F 121 30-1
12 12 King Rubi (GB) Hamelin A Palussiere M 121 30-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Daily Double / Pick 6 (Races 4-9)



5th (11:03) Al Quoz Sprint (G1)

About 5 Furlongs (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 1 Joy And Fun (NZ) Doyle B Cruz Derek 126 20-1
2 2 Sole Power (GB) Moore R Lynam Eddie 126 6-1
3 3 Sholaan (IRE) Buick W T Selvaratnam Dhruba J 126 50-1
4 4 Medicean Man (GB) Bentley H Gask Jeremy 126 15-1
5 5 Beat Baby (IRE) Graberg P Petersen Niels 126 50-1
6 6 Hamza (IRE) Callan N Ryan Kevin A 126 15-1
7 7 Berlino Di Tiger (BRZ) Goncalves L Caramori Eduardo 126 30-1
8 8 Amber Sky (AUS) Moreira J Yiu Ricky 126 8-1
9 9 Dux Scholar (GB) Dobbs P J Watson Doug 126 15-1
10 10 Catcall (FR) Peslier O Sogorb Philippe 126 15-1
11 11 Ahtoug (GB) Barzalona M Appleby Charles 126 12-1
12 12 Shea Shea (SAF) Soumillon C de Kock Michael F 126 1-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / Daily Double



6th (11:41) Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1)

About 6 Furlongs (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 1 Krypton Factor (GB) Morris L Nass Fawzi A 132 15-1
2 2 Balmont Mast (IRE) Moore R Lynam Eddie 132 10-1
3 3 Nawwaar Hanagan P G Al Raihe Ali R 132 30-1
4 4 Sterling City (AUS) Moreira J Moore James 132 20-1
5 5 Reynaldothewizard Mullen R Seemar Sateesh 132 7-2
6 6 Zee Bros Dettori L Benzel Seth 132 10-1
7 7 United Color Buick W T Selvaratnam Dhruba J 132 20-1
8 8 Complicate (AUS) De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 132 6-1
9 9 Russian Soul (IRE) Foley S Halford Michael 132 8-1
10 10 Jamesie (IRE) Lynch F Marnane David 132 12-1
11 11 My Catch (IRE) Dobbs P J Watson Doug 123 50-1
12 12 Rich Tapestry (IRE) Doleuze Olivier Chang Michael 132 4-1
13 13 Bello (AUS) Barzalona M Appleby Charles 132 20-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / Daily Double



7th (12:39) Dubai Duty Free (G1)

About 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $5,000,000

1 1 Mshawish Dettori L Delzangles Mikel 126 10-1
2 2 Just a Way (JPN) Fukunaga Y Sugai Naosuke 126 9-2
3 3 Anaerobio (ARG) Marcus A de Kock Michael F 126 50-1
4 4 The Fugue (GB) Buick W T Gosden John H M 121 3-1
5 5 Educate (GB) Guyon M H Mohammed Ismail 126 50-1
6 6 Tokei Halo (JPN) Take Y Shimizu Hidekatsu 126 30-1
7 7 Trade Storm (GB) Spencer J Simcock David 126 15-1
8 8 Tasaday De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 121 15-1
9 9 Blazing Speed (GB) Moreira J Cruz A S 126 30-1
10 10 Dank (GB) Moore R Stoute Sir Michael 121 7-2
11 11 Vercingetorix (SAF) Soumillon C de Kock Michael F 126 5-1
12 12 Logotype (JPN) Demuro C Tanaka Tsuyoshi 126 30-1
13 13 Hunter's Light (IRE) Fallon K bin Suroor Saeed 126 30-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / Daily Double



8th (1:17) Dubai Sheema Classic (G1)

About 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $5,000,000

1 1 Excellent Result (IRE) De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 125 15-1
2 2 Mars (IRE) Hughes R de Kock Michael F 125 20-1
3 3 Denim and Ruby (JPN) Hamanaka S Sumii Katsuhiko 120 8-1
4 4 Magician (IRE) O'Brien J P O'Brien Aidan P 125 3-1
5 5 Mount Athos (IRE) Fallon K Botti Marco 126 20-1
6 6 Dunaden (FR) Spencer J Delzangles Mikel 126 30-1
7 7 Ambivalent (IRE) Atzeni A Varian Roger 121 30-1
8 8 Meandre (FR) Dobbs P J Watson Doug 126 15-1
9 9 Festive Cheer (FR) Heffernan S O'Brien Aidan P 125 20-1
10 10 Dubday (GB) Dettori L Al Ghazali Jassim 125 20-1
11 11 Twilight Eclipse Lezcano J Albertrani Thomas 126 20-1
12 12 Gentildonna (JPN) Moore R Ishizaka Sei 121 4-1
13 13 Empoli (GER) de Vries A Schiergen Peter 125 15-1
14 14 Dominant (IRE) Moreira J Moore John 126 30-1
15 15 Cirrus des Aigles (FR) Soumillon C Barande Barbe C 126 6-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Daily Double



9th (2:05) Dubai World Cup (G1)


About 1 1/4 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $10,000,000

1 1 Prince Bishop (IRE) Fallon K bin Suroor Saeed 126 10-1
2 2 Belshazzar (JPN) Lemaire C P Matsuda Kunihide 126 10-1
3 3 Vancouverite (GB) Buick W T Appleby Charles 126 15-1
4 4 Akeed Mofeed (GB) Whyte Doug Gibson Richard 126 10-1
5 5 Sanshaawes (SAF) Soumillon C de Kock Michael F 126 12-1
6 6 African Story (GB) De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 126 20-1
7 7 Hillstar (GB) Moore R Stoute Sir Michael 126 30-1
8 8 Military Attack (IRE) Moreira J Moore John 126 8-1
9 9 Side Glance (GB) Spencer J Balding Andrew 126 30-1
10 10 Surfer Mullen R Seemar Sateesh 126 30-1
11 11 Hokko Tarumae (JPN) Miyuki H Nishiura Katsuichi 126 12-1
12 12 Ruler of The World (IRE) O'Brien J P O'Brien Aidan P 126 9-2
13 13 Mukhadram (GB) Hanagan P G Haggas William J 126 20-1
14 14 Red Cadeaux (GB) Mosse G Dunlop Edward 126 15-1
15 15 Cat O'Mountain Barzalona M Appleby Charles 126 20-1
16 16 Ron the Greek Lezcano J Bachalard Nicholas 126 5-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Superfecta carryover of $2,645
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 03-27-2014, 01:21 AM
pmayjr's Avatar
pmayjr pmayjr is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Canterbury Park- 3rd Floor Clubhouse
Posts: 1,603
Default

guys,

I'm not here to start another pissing match with you over how much Synth does or doesn't suck. But seriously these are the best betting races all weekend. There are a few races where the chalk looks good, but even in those races it could be bombs away underneath.

Other races are wide open, including the big World Cup race (Mucho Macho Man would've had as good of a chance as any in here). Many of the top horses in the world are showing up from all points, and you wonder where the Dubai-based horses have the edge and where they're outclassed.

There are very few horses in the races that are a complete throw-out, so there's a lot of ways you can go and a lot you can make legit cases for. I know the Derby preps are the big deal here, but the the Dubai races are the best betting opportunities all weekend.

Free PPs available here-
http://www.amwestentertainment.com/p...s-20140029.pdf

I'm assuming DRF will make them available as well?
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr.
Twitter- @pmayjr
You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin'
If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...

Last edited by pmayjr : 03-27-2014 at 01:36 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 03-27-2014, 01:35 AM
pmayjr's Avatar
pmayjr pmayjr is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Canterbury Park- 3rd Floor Clubhouse
Posts: 1,603
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
2nd (9:10) Godolphin Mile (G2)

About 1 Mile (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 1 Penitent (GB) O'Brien J P O''Meara David 126 40-1
2 2 Gabrial (IRE) Hughes R Fahey Richard 126 40-1
3 3 Glory Awaits (IRE) Spencer J Ryan Kevin A 126 40-1
4 4 Eastern Rules (IRE) Foley S Halford Michael 126 20-1
5 5 Soft Falling Rain (SAF) Hanagan P G de Kock Michael F 126 9-2
6 6 Elleval (IRE) Lynch F Marnane David 126 15-1
7 7 Forjatt (IRE) Buick W T Selvaratnam Dhruba J 126 40-1
8 8 Gold City (IRE) Mullen R Seemar Sateesh 126 20-1
9 9 Flotilla (FR) Lemaire C P Delzangles Mike 121 12-1
10 10 Shuruq De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 121 3-1
11 11 Mull of Killough (IRE) Moore R Chapple-Hyam Jane 126 30-1
12 12 Capital Attraction O'Shea T P Oertel Ernst 126 10-1
13 13 Haatheq O'Neill D Al Raihe Ali R 126 30-1
14 14 Brightline (JPN) Fukunaga Y Sameshima Ippo 126 12-1
15 15 Variety Club (SAF) Marcus A Ramsden Joey 126 4-1
16 16 Limario (GER) Dobbs P J Watson Doug 126 20-1
Arguably the surest favorite of the day (although a lot of people have the right to debate that this race is wide open too) to me is the Filly #10 Shuruq taking on the boys here. She has 2 wins and 1 2nd at this distance over this Meydan surface and has beaten a lot of the other entrants in here. So I like her to win, but I think there could be some big bombs underneath.

#7 Forjatt lost to Shuruq last out, but got shuffled back a little further than he usually likes it and still closed to get 4th. I think he'll be more involved early and runs a big one. Granted he's run against lesser, but he hasn't finished worse than 4th in any race since 12/2012.

#11 Mull of Killough is battle tested running in the Cox Plate, the Arlington Million and the G1 Singapore Airlines Cup. He cuts back to a mile and has run over synth before. His best effort makes him very live here. He should be on/or pressing the pace.

#16 Limario gets his 2nd start off the layoff while getting a run over the Meydan surface in his last. He's also cutting back from normally running in longer races. Definitely eligible for improvement.

I think Shuruq is the real deal here, but if I can get one of those bombs underneath in an exacta, it should be a nice payoff
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr.
Twitter- @pmayjr
You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin'
If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 03-27-2014, 01:48 AM
pmayjr's Avatar
pmayjr pmayjr is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Canterbury Park- 3rd Floor Clubhouse
Posts: 1,603
Default

Quote:
3rd (9:45) Dubai Gold Cup (G2)

About 2 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 1 Dabadiyan (IRE) Foley S Halford Michael 120 15-1
2 2 Star Empire (SAF) Soumillon C de Kock Michael F 126 5-1
3 3 Ernest Hemingway (IRE) O'Brien J P O'Brien Aidan P 126 12-1
4 4 Moment In Time (IRE) Crowley J V Simcock David 121 30-1
5 5 Ralston Road (IRE) O'Shea T P Seemar Sateesh 120 30-1
6 6 Songcraft (IRE) Barzalona M bin Suroor Saeed 126 6-1
7 7 Cavalryman (GB) De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 126 5-2
8 8 Joshua Tree (IRE) Moore R Dunlop Edward 126 10-1
9 9 Seismos (IRE) Atzeni A Wohler Andreas 126 15-1
10 10 Jamr (GB) de Vries A bin Harmash Ahmad 126 60-1
11 11 Saddler's Rock (IRE) McDonogh Daragh P Oxx J. 126 30-1
12 12 Now We Can (GB) Thulliez T Clement Nicolas 126 20-1
13 13 Sheikhzayedroad (GB) Lane M Simcock David 126 60-1
14 14 Certerach (IRE) Spencer J Halford Michael 126 8-1
15 15 Simenon (IRE) Smullen P J Mullins William P 126 20-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / Daily Double
This is another race where i think the favorite, #7 Cavalryman looks the part, because he's beaten a lot of these, relishes the long distance (where you're unsure if some of these wanna go that far), has 2 wins and a 3rd over this turf course, and oh... yeah... he won this race last year and still seems to be in good form.

#15 Simenon I think has an outside chance to beat Cavalryman. He's getting a 2nd run over the Meydan turf off a 5-month layoff, where Cavalryman beat him easily 3 weeks ago. But this horse relishes the extra ground, and is definitely eligible to improve. And, I think he's run against some big-tymers since his last 3 races before the layoff were the Hong Kong Vase, Japan Cup and Melbourne Cup. So he's battle tested. I doubt you'll get that 20-1 ML price, but I'd take half that and be happy.

#1 Dabadiyan and #13 Sheikzayadroad are steady horses that have had plenty of runs over this surface and also think like going longer. So I think they're decent plays underneath at long odds.
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr.
Twitter- @pmayjr
You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin'
If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 03-27-2014, 02:14 AM
pmayjr's Avatar
pmayjr pmayjr is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Canterbury Park- 3rd Floor Clubhouse
Posts: 1,603
Default

Quote:
4th (10:25) UAE Derby (G2)

About 1 3/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 1 Safety Check (IRE) Buick W T Appleby Charles 121 30-1
2 2 Paximadia (AUS) De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 131 15-1
3 3 Cooptado (ARG) Dobbs P J Watson Doug 131 8-1
4 4 Long John (AUS) Barzalona M Appleby Charles 131 3-1
5 5 Giovanni Boldini Moore R O'Brien Aidan P 121 5-2
6 6 Emirates Flyer (GB) Fallon K bin Suroor Saeed 121 30-1
7 7 Sir Jack Layden (GB) Dettori L Brown David H 121 20-1
8 8 Toast of New York Spencer J Osborne Jamie 121 20-1
9 9 Asmar (IRE) Hughes R Nass Fawzi A 121 6-1
10 10 Sir John Hawkins O'Donoghue C O'Brien Aidan P 121 12-1
11 11 Jallota (GB) Crowley J V de Kock Michael F 121 30-1
12 12 King Rubi (GB) Hamelin A Palussiere M 121 30-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Daily Double / Pick 6 (Races 4-9)
I'm gonna buy the hype on #9 Asmar here. He won the main prep to the UAE Derby, the al Bastikaya on Super Saturday 3 weeks ago as a maiden lol. But it was impressive the way he did it. A very slow pace was set in that 1 3/16mi. race, so jockey Richard Hughes on the backstretch rushed the horse up, and he just kept on going. He seems to relish the extra ground, and with this being only his 5th lifetime start, he's probably still improving. The owner/trainer aren't Godlphin, Darley, or Coolmore-based, so I'm not sure if he wins if he'd try and go to KY. Breeding is pretty turfish, so would probably tough to think he'd take to dirt... But for this particular race he's live at a nice price.

#3 Cooptado is a Southern Hemisphere 3 year old bred/run in Argentina, so he's not eligible for the Derby (Southern Hemisphere horses aren't eligible for the Derby, because they're actually age 4 by US standards). In 7 lifetime starts in Argentina, he's never finished off the board in some of their biggest dirt/turf races. He's never run outside Argentina or run on synth, but the way he's handled the other 2 surfaces, I doubt this will be an issue for him if he shipped ok. He's also already run at 1 1/4, 1 5/16 and 1 1/2 miles in his short career. Very dangerous at a nice price if the ML odds hold.

#5 Giovani Boldini hasn't run since finishing 2nd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last November. But this is Aiden O'Brien/Coolmore, who's won this race multiple times in the past (including last year with Lines of Battle). The horse's only 2 wins are over a synthetic surface, and hasn't finished off the board in his 4 career starts. He'll probably be the favorite, and deservingly so, but the horse has never run further than a mile. Combo that with this being his first start since November and trying to go 1 3/16 miles, I'm trying to beat him. But if he does take care of business, HE'LL DEFINITELY BE IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY next start.

#12 King Rubi might be the longest shot on the board, but something should be said for the fact that in his 2 starts over synth surfaces in France, he has 2 wins. He won his last race going 1 3/16 miles over synth off a layoff since November. So this will be his 2nd start off the shelf over a surface he'll probably like. He probably hasn't faced this level of competition, but this race is a "next logical step" race for him IMO. I have no idea what his connections would do if they finished well enough to go to KY. He's an inferior turf horse, so maybe they'd actually try going to KY.
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr.
Twitter- @pmayjr
You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin'
If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...

Last edited by pmayjr : 03-27-2014 at 02:49 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 03-27-2014, 02:48 AM
pmayjr's Avatar
pmayjr pmayjr is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Canterbury Park- 3rd Floor Clubhouse
Posts: 1,603
Default

5th (11:03) Al Quoz Sprint (G1)

About 5 Furlongs (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 1 Joy And Fun (NZ) Doyle B Cruz Derek 126 20-1
2 2 Sole Power (GB) Moore R Lynam Eddie 126 6-1
3 3 Sholaan (IRE) Buick W T Selvaratnam Dhruba J 126 50-1
4 4 Medicean Man (GB) Bentley H Gask Jeremy 126 15-1
5 5 Beat Baby (IRE) Graberg P Petersen Niels 126 50-1
6 6 Hamza (IRE) Callan N Ryan Kevin A 126 15-1
7 7 Berlino Di Tiger (BRZ) Goncalves L Caramori Eduardo 126 30-1
8 8 Amber Sky (AUS) Moreira J Yiu Ricky 126 8-1
9 9 Dux Scholar (GB) Dobbs P J Watson Doug 126 15-1
10 10 Catcall (FR) Peslier O Sogorb Philippe 126 15-1
11 11 Ahtoug (GB) Barzalona M Appleby Charles 126 12-1
12 12 Shea Shea (SAF) Soumillon C de Kock Michael F 126 1-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / Daily Double [/quote]

Shea Shea is the big favorite in here, because he loves this distance and the surface. BUT! I'M STILL COMPLETELY PLAYING AGAINST. This is a very salty bunch he's going against. He's beaten some of these, but there are a lot in here that have pretty impressive resumes. There are 2 Hong Kong shippers in here. They have some of the fastest turf sprinters in the world there, and that's the angle I'm using here.

#8 Amber Sky has solely raced in the best sprint races in Hong Kong. He's in top form, and loves going 5f. If he takes to the Dubai surface, he'll be a monster here. I doubt he'll be 8-1 as the ML suggests, but I'd be happy with 9/2 if I could get those odds.

#1 Joy and Fun is also HK-based. He's 11 years old, but still going strong. He's run in this race the past 2 years, finishing 2nd and 3rd. Good horse to use underneath, because he's a gamer.

#4 Medicean Man has lost to a lot these entrants over the years, but is always a steady gamer and is in really good form right now. He has 2 1sts and a 3rd in his last 3 races, 2 of which were over this course and distance.

#7 Berlino di Tiger I think has a chance to make some noise in here. He hasn't done much inthe US over the past year, but there's a key distinction- He doesn't have to run around a turn in Dubai. He wasn't doing that in turf sprints in Brazil. The level of competition probably was a little inferior, but those are some fast times he was putting up in Brazil. If he just likes running straight, He could rebound and run a big one here.

I won't be putting much into this race, because Shea Shea is the real deal and deserves to be the favorite. But at the short price he'll be, I think he's definitely worth trying to beat.
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr.
Twitter- @pmayjr
You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin'
If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 03-27-2014, 03:08 AM
pmayjr's Avatar
pmayjr pmayjr is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Canterbury Park- 3rd Floor Clubhouse
Posts: 1,603
Default

Quote:
6th (11:41) Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1)

About 6 Furlongs (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 1 Krypton Factor (GB) Morris L Nass Fawzi A 132 15-1
2 2 Balmont Mast (IRE) Moore R Lynam Eddie 132 10-1
3 3 Nawwaar Hanagan P G Al Raihe Ali R 132 30-1
4 4 Sterling City (AUS) Moreira J Moore James 132 20-1
5 5 Reynaldothewizard Mullen R Seemar Sateesh 132 7-2
6 6 Zee Bros Dettori L Benzel Seth 132 10-1
7 7 United Color Buick W T Selvaratnam Dhruba J 132 20-1
8 8 Complicate (AUS) De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 132 6-1
9 9 Russian Soul (IRE) Foley S Halford Michael 132 8-1
10 10 Jamesie (IRE) Lynch F Marnane David 132 12-1
11 11 My Catch (IRE) Dobbs P J Watson Doug 123 50-1
12 12 Rich Tapestry (IRE) Doleuze Olivier Chang Michael 132 4-1
13 13 Bello (AUS) Barzalona M Appleby Charles 132 20-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / Daily Double
I think this race is wide-open. But with that being said I think the most likely is #12 Rich Tapestry. In his 4 non-turf starts, he has 4 wins. He won the 6f sprint race on Super Saturday off a layoff since December. He's a Hong Kong-based horse that's in all those nasty turf sprints over there. He's raced against some of the best and is 2nd-off the layoff with a fresh win over the Meydan surface on Super-Saturday 3 weeks ago. Take 4-1 if you can get it or even half of that.

Sticking with the Hong Kong theme, #4 Sterling City has never raced in Dubai before, but is a win machine. 7 wins in 19 starts (16/19 starts in the $$$) and has run vs the best in Hong Kong. He's a closing sprinter, and the pace should be hot, so he could be flying late. I don't think 20-1ML odds are realistic, but 10, maybe 15-1 is...

#9 Russian Soul had 2 very good races at this distance of the Meydan surface, before Rich Tapestry put him in his place last time. I think the horse was a little further back and a little wider than he wanted to be in his last, so I expect a sharp, competitive rebound effort from him on Saturday. This is the distance/surface he thrives in...

#11 My Catch is kinda an unknown in here. He's only 3, and has been running in 3YO restricted races earlier in the Dubai Carnival. Now this speedy guy is trying elders, but has a win over the surface. The reason I think he has a chance to hit the board here, is HE GETS A 9LB WEIGHT BREAK on the rest of the field. So if he's on his A-game, that weight break should make him very competitive.
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr.
Twitter- @pmayjr
You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin'
If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 03-27-2014, 03:30 AM
pmayjr's Avatar
pmayjr pmayjr is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Canterbury Park- 3rd Floor Clubhouse
Posts: 1,603
Default

Quote:
7th (12:39) Dubai Duty Free (G1)

About 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $5,000,000

1 1 Mshawish Dettori L Delzangles Mikel 126 10-1
2 2 Just a Way (JPN) Fukunaga Y Sugai Naosuke 126 9-2
3 3 Anaerobio (ARG) Marcus A de Kock Michael F 126 50-1
4 4 The Fugue (GB) Buick W T Gosden John H M 121 3-1
5 5 Educate (GB) Guyon M H Mohammed Ismail 126 50-1
6 6 Tokei Halo (JPN) Take Y Shimizu Hidekatsu 126 30-1
7 7 Trade Storm (GB) Spencer J Simcock David 126 15-1
8 8 Tasaday De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 121 15-1
9 9 Blazing Speed (GB) Moreira J Cruz A S 126 30-1
10 10 Dank (GB) Moore R Stoute Sir Michael 121 7-2
11 11 Vercingetorix (SAF) Soumillon C de Kock Michael F 126 5-1
12 12 Logotype (JPN) Demuro C Tanaka Tsuyoshi 126 30-1
13 13 Hunter's Light (IRE) Fallon K bin Suroor Saeed 126 30-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / Daily Double
Even with all the big names in the field, I think this race has the potential to come in with some big prices.

Dank is in good form, but has only raced against the girls and is coming off a layoff.

We all know the Fugue is a monster, but I think this distance is a little shorter than she wants to go, and I'm kinda confused why she wasn't entered either in the Sheema Classic at 1 1/2 miles on turf (her ideal distance) or in the World Cup...

Vercingetorix is undefeated, but has he gone against the best?

Overall this is a very classy, salty bunch and there are a lot of ways you can go.

I'm picking a longshot to win it- #9 Blazing Speed. Sticking with the Hong Kong theme, he's been going against the best. He's been competitive against Akeed Mofeed, Cirrus de Aigles, and Military Attack. But I think this distance suits him well, and he'll be flying late. So he's my pick at hopefully 20-1 or better.

#11 Vercingetorix is undefeated and in his last 2 starts has won over the Meydan turf. This is by far the classiest bunch he's faced, but until he loses, tough to pick against him.

#10 Dank is in such good form, I think she could hold her own with anyone. We'll see if taking on the boys off a layoff is too much to overcome, but she's done very little wrong lately.

#7 Trade Storm is a steady knocker over this Meydan turf course. He has a habit of starting sluggishly and flying late. I'm not sure his best can beat these, but I think he can hit the board.

As I said, I don't like the Fugue, because she should be going longer. Since she'll most likely be the favorite here, I looked for more value elsewhere. She truly is a monster if she beats this group.

One other side note- I can't get over how Godolphin entered #13 Hunter's Light here instead of in the World Cup. He's a steady turf horse, but he's inferior to these and I think they may be just using him as a rabbit. He has proven Meydan synthetic form, and ran a solid 4th on Super Saturday off a long layoff in preparation for a World Cup run. His racing lines are very similar to 2012 winner Monterosso. Godolphin had multiple entrants in each race, so they're probably trying to find the best way to shuffle the deck. But as wide-open as the World Cup appears to be on paper, HE HAS A LEGIT SHOT OF WINNING THE WORLD CUP. IMO, he has very little chance to win this race. I think he's as good as the other 3 Godlophin entrants in the race, and probably better than Vancouverite. Vancouverite should be in this race, the Duty Free, and Hunter's Light should be in the World Cup.
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr.
Twitter- @pmayjr
You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin'
If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 03-27-2014, 03:42 AM
pmayjr's Avatar
pmayjr pmayjr is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Canterbury Park- 3rd Floor Clubhouse
Posts: 1,603
Default

Quote:
8th (1:17) Dubai Sheema Classic (G1)

About 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $5,000,000

1 1 Excellent Result (IRE) De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 125 15-1
2 2 Mars (IRE) Hughes R de Kock Michael F 125 20-1
3 3 Denim and Ruby (JPN) Hamanaka S Sumii Katsuhiko 120 8-1
4 4 Magician (IRE) O'Brien J P O'Brien Aidan P 125 3-1
5 5 Mount Athos (IRE) Fallon K Botti Marco 126 20-1
6 6 Dunaden (FR) Spencer J Delzangles Mikel 126 30-1
7 7 Ambivalent (IRE) Atzeni A Varian Roger 121 30-1
8 8 Meandre (FR) Dobbs P J Watson Doug 126 15-1
9 9 Festive Cheer (FR) Heffernan S O'Brien Aidan P 125 20-1
10 10 Dubday (GB) Dettori L Al Ghazali Jassim 125 20-1
11 11 Twilight Eclipse Lezcano J Albertrani Thomas 126 20-1
12 12 Gentildonna (JPN) Moore R Ishizaka Sei 121 4-1
13 13 Empoli (GER) de Vries A Schiergen Peter 125 15-1
14 14 Dominant (IRE) Moreira J Moore John 126 30-1
15 15 Cirrus des Aigles (FR) Soumillon C Barande Barbe C 126 6-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Daily Double
#12 Gentildonna is so consistent. He'll be a short price, but he usually delivers.

#3 Denim and Ruby lost by a nose to Gentildonna in her last race in Japan. She hasn't raced since November, but if she's ready she's "guilty by association" with Gentildonna. She's won off a similar 6-month layoff before.

#1 Excellent result has won 2 in a row over the Meydan turf, so you know he likes the surface. He hasn't raced vs the level of competition before, but this is the right time to try with him being in good form over a distance/surface he likes.

#14 Dominant is an inconsistent Hong Kong horse, but he's capable of big efforts at any time, and he likes this distance.

Playing an exacta box with these 4 is the way I'll play this race.

If the Fugue would've been entered here instead of the Duty Free, I think she'd be the favorite and at this distance, and being in form, she turns the tables on Magician and the rest of the field. Really surprised they didn't put her in this race.
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr.
Twitter- @pmayjr
You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin'
If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 03-27-2014, 04:10 AM
pmayjr's Avatar
pmayjr pmayjr is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Canterbury Park- 3rd Floor Clubhouse
Posts: 1,603
Default

Quote:
9th (2:05) Dubai World Cup (G1)


About 1 1/4 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $10,000,000

1 1 Prince Bishop (IRE) Fallon K bin Suroor Saeed 126 10-1
2 2 Belshazzar (JPN) Lemaire C P Matsuda Kunihide 126 10-1
3 3 Vancouverite (GB) Buick W T Appleby Charles 126 15-1
4 4 Akeed Mofeed (GB) Whyte Doug Gibson Richard 126 10-1
5 5 Sanshaawes (SAF) Soumillon C de Kock Michael F 126 12-1
6 6 African Story (GB) De Sousa S A bin Suroor Saeed 126 20-1
7 7 Hillstar (GB) Moore R Stoute Sir Michael 126 30-1
8 8 Military Attack (IRE) Moreira J Moore John 126 8-1
9 9 Side Glance (GB) Spencer J Balding Andrew 126 30-1
10 10 Surfer Mullen R Seemar Sateesh 126 30-1
11 11 Hokko Tarumae (JPN) Miyuki H Nishiura Katsuichi 126 12-1
12 12 Ruler of The World (IRE) O'Brien J P O'Brien Aidan P 126 9-2
13 13 Mukhadram (GB) Hanagan P G Haggas William J 126 20-1
14 14 Red Cadeaux (GB) Mosse G Dunlop Edward 126 15-1
15 15 Cat O'Mountain Barzalona M Appleby Charles 126 20-1
16 16 Ron the Greek Lezcano J Bachalard Nicholas 126 5-1

Win / Place / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 MIN) / Superfecta (.10 MIN) Superfecta carryover of $2,645
Posted on my analysm for the Duty Free-
Quote:
One other side note- I can't get over how Godolphin entered #13 Hunter's Light here instead of in the World Cup. He's a steady turf horse, but he's inferior to these and I think they may be just using him as a rabbit. He has proven Meydan synthetic form, and ran a solid 4th on Super Saturday off a long layoff in preparation for a World Cup run. His racing lines are very similar to 2012 winner Monterosso. Godolphin had multiple entrants in each race, so they're probably trying to find the best way to shuffle the deck. But as wide-open as the World Cup appears to be on paper, HE HAS A LEGIT SHOT OF WINNING THE WORLD CUP. IMO, he has very little chance to win this race. I think he's as good as the other 3 Godlophin entrants in the race, and probably better than Vancouverite. Vancouverite should be in this race, the Duty Free, and Hunter's Light should be in the World Cup.
I would've been very tempted to pick Hunter's Light if he was entered here, but focusing on the actual participants-

This race is really wide-open. You have horses with proven form over this Meydan surface, but have they gone against this level of competition? You have classy group 1 winning turf horses trying synthetic for the first time. You can make a case for every horse in the field, but you can also find excuses why you don't like them. Guys, as much as we argued about Mucho Macho Man coming or not coming here, look at the PPs for this race and tell me with a straight face that he couldn't win this? He, at worst would be as live as every other horse in this field. ****, I would've been tempted to try Wise Dan vs this bunch as well. Ok, sorry, getting side-tracked.

As much as I'm liking the Hong Kong-based horses throughout the card, I'm playing against them here. Same for the Japan runners. It's totally playing with fire to do so, but as I said above, you can make cases for every horse and find legit reasons/excuses to not play them.

I decided to take horses that have had proven success over this surface/distance. Especially when it's this level of competition. It seems since Meydan has opened, that it's very tough to win the World Cup from far back, so I picked horses that can stalk or be close-up.

#1 Prince Bishop is in really good form right now winning 2 in a row over this surface, and repeatedly beating African Story and Sanshaawes. He's on top of his game right now, and eventhough he hasn't faced this level of competition, we don't really know who is better until they've proven they can handle the surface. He has proven it, and I think will prove it on Saturday.

#9 Side Glance will be at huge odds, but he's battle-tested. He was a non-competitive 7th in a loss to Prince Bishop on Super Saturday 3 weeks ago, but that was his first start since December. In his 4 races before that, he ran in the Arlington Million, 2 group 1s in Australia, and and another in Hong Kong all at the 1 1/4 mile distance. He finished 4th to Animal Kingdom in the Dubai World Cup last year. So this is his 2nd start off the bench, should be more fit, more sharp, and has a chance to have a monster effort at huge odds.

#14 Red Cadeaux finished 2nd to Animal Kingdom in the World Cup last year. The horse always runs in the best races, and holds his own. Hasn't raced since December, but came off that same layoff last year to get 2nd in this race. Should have really good value and brings the resume to back it up. Live horse that should be around 10-1

#5 Sanshaawes has been in very good form the whole Dubai Carnival. He had 2 wins in a row over the surface before getting 2nd ro Prince Bishop on Super Saturday. He's definitely eligible to turn the tables on PB, and win the race. Has the potential to be anywhere from 7-1 to 15-1, and he has good value at either IMO.

There's so many ways to go in all of these races, I'm just hoping to be right on one or 2 of them.Feel free to rip on my picks now ;p
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr.
Twitter- @pmayjr
You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin'
If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 03-27-2014, 11:16 AM
Indian Charlie's Avatar
Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southern Maine
Posts: 8,708
Default

Nine consecutive posts by Pmay.

I think that's better than the World Cup event itself.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 03-27-2014, 12:35 PM
pmayjr's Avatar
pmayjr pmayjr is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Canterbury Park- 3rd Floor Clubhouse
Posts: 1,603
Default

With my lack of credibility with most of you, I'll totally understand if you didn't get through 9 sentences. But hopefully you got through 9 words ;p
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr.
Twitter- @pmayjr
You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin'
If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 03-28-2014, 07:39 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,283
Default

ANTEPOST ODDSCHECKER

'INTERNATIONAL' drop down to change to the rest of the MEY card..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 03-28-2014, 11:17 AM
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: suffolk downs
Posts: 5,811
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by pmayjr View Post
With my lack of credibility with most of you, I'll totally understand if you didn't get through 9 sentences. But hopefully you got through 9 words ;p

nothing like a couple of double digge winners to gain cred. especially with that signature.

thanks for all the time and effort, and for sharing it with us. I for one appreciate it. Stay on the good foot. Maybe we both go on a heater.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 03-28-2014, 04:37 PM
tjfla tjfla is offline
Aqueduct
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 649
Default

What horses in the UAE Derby are KY Derby eligible?
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 03-28-2014, 07:04 PM
Merlinsky Merlinsky is offline
Santa Anita
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,049
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tjfla View Post
What horses in the UAE Derby are KY Derby eligible?
Three of them are. I believe it's Toast of New York, Sir John Hawkins, and Giovanni Boldini. Check out the pedigrees of TONY and SJH. Rather interesting. TONY's sire Thewayyouare and SJH have very similar breeding. I'm not sure what to call that. I mean it doesn't seem to be something so easy to classify as half or 3/4. They're both by sons of Kingmambo, but TONY's sire is out of Maryinsky (making his sire a half to Peeping Fawn) where SJH's dam is a daughter of Maryinsky (aka Peeping Fawn).
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 03-28-2014, 08:18 PM
pmayjr's Avatar
pmayjr pmayjr is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Canterbury Park- 3rd Floor Clubhouse
Posts: 1,603
Default

King Rubi isn't, but I wonder if he were to somehow win if the connections would strongly consider putting up the big money to go to Kentucky. HE has been a non-factor on turf. There are probably some big $ races in Europe on synth, but probably not many?

As for Asmar, I think that horse has enough grass potential that his connections won't send him here.
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr.
Twitter- @pmayjr
You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin'
If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 03-28-2014, 11:38 PM
Seattleallstar's Avatar
Seattleallstar Seattleallstar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,866
Default

Goldolphin Mile

Variety Club bounces back!

Gold Cup

I really like Seismos, had a great prep beating up sauerkrauts in Germany, look for this horse to be coming late

UAE Derby

Only alternative I see from Giovanni is Cooptado

Sprint
Got a feeling Shea Shea wont make it to the wire first, I love Amber Sky and Medciean Man

Golden Shaheen
Complicate gets up or Sterling City gets first run and wins at a nice price

Dubai Duty Free

Its a thee horse race between the favorites and if the Japanese horse runs its race it will be exciting, box the 4 in the tri and super and move on

Sheema

Magician is free money, Cirrus des Aigles to finish the stone cold exacta

World Cup

Sanshawees to lay right off and just barely holds on to win!
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 03-29-2014, 09:57 AM
Seattleallstar's Avatar
Seattleallstar Seattleallstar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,866
Default

No inquiry?..!,

Bin Surors face was priceless and he probably cursed the ride on Calvaryman
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 03-29-2014, 12:56 PM
pmayjr's Avatar
pmayjr pmayjr is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Canterbury Park- 3rd Floor Clubhouse
Posts: 1,603
Default

Just a Way in the Duty Free- HOOOOLLLLYYY SHIIIIIT! 1:45 and change for 1 1/8. Smashed 'em
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr.
Twitter- @pmayjr
You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin'
If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased...
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:03 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.