7/23: Saratoga (Lake George; $27k C/O)

[Kasept]

Off to a very clumsy start at Saratoga, failing over the first 4 days to gain much of a foothold or continuity. At the same time, got a little something out of the Sanford and only needed The Lewis Dinner (14-1) to get past Graeme Cracker Friday or Fade to Black (16-1) to win the steward's decision Saturday to be in nice stead, so I'm not fretting. $27k C/O to start the week..


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Steeplechase season starts here with solid group of modestly credentialed hoppers. Jack Fisher comes in with a strong pair that luckily are not an entry..

Best Value: #2 Syros 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Wantan 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Rudyard K 5-2 WON ($6.90)
Super Add: #7 Selection Sunday 4-1 2nd


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P5, P3, DD)

Have to deal with pair of Pletcher fillies here including $340k Repole purchase Overspending, a full to Wicked Deed and half to Western Prize, both SW's. Dallas Stewart filly a half to last year's Spa-precocious Designer Legs but draws rail. Schettino good with early runners and Kisses for Romeo working well. Asmussen-Durant's Empressive Humor dropped from fast dam. Tough group to decipher..

Best Value: #6 Kisses for Romeo 5-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Empressive Humor 4-1 WON ($9.30)
Exotics Use: #8 Overspending 7-5 2nd
Super Add: #2 Margaret Reay 15-1 6th


3rd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Fun group and if Got Lucky doesn't run at least her A-/B+ race, it gets very open. Rumba has some speed and may be a new filly..

Best Value: #7 Rumba 12-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Got Lucky 1-1 WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #2 Equilateral 4-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Unbridledexplosion 10-1 2nd


4th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

A number of droppers make this another challenging set. If Poliziano doesn't tackle Shot to Win the early leader could wire this. Pace has to be at least somewhat contentious to give this a fair running..

Best Value: #4 Shot to Win 8-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Ithastobegeorge 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Santa Elf 7-2 WON ($9.30)
Super Add: #2 Betweenhereandcool 5-2 3rd


5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$27k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #2 Girlaboutown 8-5 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #5 Verismilitude 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Jilly Mac 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Senso 8-1 5th


6th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Tough to argue against Artemis Agrotera returning to NY company but the Acorn was dismal and with that and modest worktab to go on, you get the feeling that things are amiss. Shaky at 2-5..

Most Likely: #1a (POE) Artemis Agrotera 2-5 WON ($2.60)
Next Best: #8 Hot Splash 5-1 5th
Best Value: #3 What the Frost 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Familyofroses 20-1 6th


7th: MCLM/$65k, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Even with their speed, the major candidates from Clement and Romans are poorly posted out wide. At 15-1, Galroyale an outstanding play with a big shot off more than solid first turf try..

Best Value: #2 GALROYALE 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Beauty Surprise 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Late Night Artist 3-1 8th
Super Add: #11 One More Song 10-1 7th


8th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Kenneally dropping 5-2 Go Appeal in from $50k purchase plenty disconcerting and much of the rest of this group has similar red flags. Bemata drops way down but has been consistent v. better..

Most Likely: #7 Bemata 7-2 7th
Best Value: #5 Shankopotomus 15-1 WON ($21.20)
Next Best: #1 Go Appeal 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Street Shark 20-1 2nd


9th: 20th Lake George (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Steady parade of high quality sophs have been winning this event including Centre Court, Winter Memories and Perfect Shirl recently. There appears to be pace (Daring Kathy, Speed Seeker) and pressure (A Little Bit Sassy) involved here, but if anyone is allowed to loaf up front, it will compromise the 4 looking to rally..

Most Likely: #7 A Little Bit Sassy 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Little Journey 5-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Daring Dancer 3-1 WON ($8.30)
Exotics Use: #4 Sweet Acclaim 4-1 3rd


10th: NY-OC/N1X, D&M-3+, 5.5f-T

Rousing end to the day with fast-paced lawn dash. Open to any to fill the super slots..

Most Likely: #3 Saucon Valley 5-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Royal Jest 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Hot Squeeze 3-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #1 All Mine Tonight 8-1 4th


Late to post-SCR multis today...


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-5
6: 1
7: 2-10-12
8: 7
9: 2-6-7
10: 1-2-3-8

2x1x3x1x3x4 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-10-12
8: 1-4-5-7
9: 2-6-7
10: 1-2-3-8

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

That was crazy.. 3/5 on Overspending...

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by Kasept

That was crazy.. 3/5 on Overspending...

When you watch the head-on replay, take a look at how Rosie schooled Johnny V. by pinning him down low on the rail. Overspending was likely not winning that race and feel foolish for scratching into the 8 horse in that race.

[ScottJ]

Got Lucky did just that in today's third where this Grade 2 placed filly was life and death to hold off this first level allowance field.

As for Rosie's claim of foul with fourth place finishing Pretty Fancy, she really needs to go back and look at this weekend's non-calls. Did she actually think that the stewards were going to make a move here or was it more of a show for George Arnold?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

When you watch the head-on replay, take a look at how Rosie schooled Johnny V. by pinning him down low on the rail. Overspending was likely not winning that race and feel foolish for scratching into the 8 horse in that race.

Why do you feel foolish? Pletcher is like 95 % with odds on 2 yr old FTS and you had to think Overspending would be Odds on based upon morning line.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by jms62

Why do you feel foolish? Pletcher is like 95 % with odds on 2 yr old FTS and you had to think Overspending would be Odds on based upon morning line.

There was better value available in the race. Saratoga has many of the horses and trainers ready to go at first asking - meaning that accepting a 1/2 price on Overspending versus looking for value was foolish on my part. (In tribute to Harvey, hardly a man today's alive, paid the mortgage at 2-5.) I just didn't think about the race with sufficient rigor after the #5 scratched.

As a side note, it did not get better in the rest of the program as I suffered a blank. When the 7 horse in the 9th race was run down by Alan Garcia's mount, I just shook my head and chanted "it's a marathon, not a sprint".

[jms62]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

There was better value available in the race. Saratoga has many of the horses and trainers ready to go at first asking - meaning that accepting a 1/2 price on Overspending versus looking for value was foolish on my part. (In tribute to Harvey, hardly a man today's alive, paid the mortgage at 2-5.) I just didn't think about the race with sufficient rigor after the #5 scratched.

As a side note, it did not get better in the rest of the program as I suffered a blank. When the 7 horse in the 9th race was run down by Alan Garcia's mount, I just shook my head and chanted "it's a marathon, not a sprint".

I am not suggesting you bet a 2/5 but you were complaining that you "scratched into" overspending. To me that means you were playing pick 4 or 5. Scratching into a horse having a 93% chance of getting you through the leg isnt the worst thing that can happen. Not covering it in the first place gives you a 7% chance to get through the leg based upon Pletchers stats in that domain.