Saratoga Monday Aug. 11 Analysis

[Kitan]

Not a great card, but the late P4 could pay decent so I’ll take a stab.

Race 2:
Straightforward here. #6 Smilingsundae is the only one I’m interested in here, however he’ll be the one most others want also. Will be lucky to see the 2-1 ML at post time.

Race 4:
#’s 4, 7, and even 9 are the logical ones but I’ve never been overly convinced by their abilities. I’m going to key #2 Bapu. I feel that he’ll be fully tuned for this, and hopefully he can avoid trouble this time around.

Race 6:
Anything can win this race, but I feel that Chad will have #3 Smoke Police primed for his debut at a decent price. He only has an average record with 3yo FTS but I like that Rosario is aboard and this isn’t a strong event.
#6 Forest Boy will improve second time for Jacobson and is the one to beat. Should get a perfect stalking trip.
Lerman does well switching them from turf to dirt, and #4 Gentrify has two quick morning works. I think he’s worth tossing into the P4.

Race 7:
I don’t mind the cutback with #7 Starship Pleasant as his dam’s side is more sprint oriented. This is much tougher than the 12.5 he beat in Florida, but he’s improved immensely with Servis. Can pull a mild upset.
Very interesting to see Rosario on #6 Thetaloveandmine. Her dam’s lone win was on turf, and that is a quick blowout a few days ago.
#3 Chelsea Road goes up in class again off the back to back claims, and Rice puts her at a distance where she has excelled previously. Very dangerous.
#5 Ecstatic Miss is my longshot play here. A repeat of her only turf sprint try makes her a big threat at a big price.
McMahon has had a few horses up at the Spa this weekend, but intrigued to see that #2 Thisdanseistaken has Rosie instead of Rodriguez. However, this is tougher than what she’s faced recently and will need to improve on this year’s form.

Race 8:
#11 Final Redemption is the one I want, and I hope she gets in. Showed a solid turn of foot in a fantastic debut win and now stretches out to a distance which will suit her even further. I found some conflicting positive/negative Formulator stats, but, negating those, she only needs minimal improvement to play a huge role if she gets in at a good price.
#10 Super Sky has been a money burner in the past, and while she does need to run a career best to win, I have a feeling that this us a Pletcher type race which makes the 8-1 ML with Castellano all the more appealing.
#2 Sweet Acclaim has had her chances and is tough to be confident on.

Race 9:
#9 Emperor’s Ring gets back on to the surface where he belongs and let’s face it: her turf start blows these guys out of the water. Of course race day is another thing, but I like the sharp works at FL and he looks primed to roll in this one.
#1 Shylock will be much more suited to the turf and I’m interested to see what he can do on this surface with a positive jockey change.
#6 and #7 are the ones to beat, but I’m only going to use the latter as he has shown that he can run a sprint.


$0.60 Pick Four
Race 6: 3, 4, 6
Race 7: 3, 5, 6, 7
Race 8: 2, 10, 11
Race 9: 1, 7, 9
$64.80

Good luck!

[Kitan]

Had a course to do today so I made the few wagers that I had in the morning before I left without adapting due to scratches (just had a smaller ticket). Came home to watch the replays and see the results, and I see I've got 1st, 1st, 1st, and 2nd in a P4 that paid just shy of five figures for a dollar. $17.10 and $38.70 winners and I'm the red for today. Days like this make me sick

[tanner12oz]

I hate throwing away big scores as much as the next guy but I have realized that it won't be the last chance. If you are positioning yourself for the big score and you come up just short its a loss of course but you gotta take the attitude that your on the right track and making solid plays. Continue on and eventually there will be a connection..as long your your making sound plays with sound money management you'll find those massive windfalls..i agree it can be maddening at times