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#1
11-01-2014, 02:35 AM
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Breeders's Cup '14 - Saturday Analysis
I'm not much of a chalk guy so Friday didn't pan out so well. Hopefully the bombs have been saved for the second day otherwise it will end up a rough weekend.
Race 4 (Juvenile Fillies): #4 Conquest Eclipse: Thought she was the more impressive of the two from the Chandelier. #1 got the perfect run and was long gone by the time this one hit full-stride, galloping out superbly. Can turn the tables at slightly higher odds. #5 Cristina's Journey: Has won both her starts with ease and flew in early to get two solid works in over the strip. Tough read as she may get caught in a duel, although she could even end up alone up top, but nothing says she can't take a bit of a hold. She's beaten #6 by a similar margin to others that have beaten her so she more than fits if you want to use that as a form reference. #2 Angela Renee: Can't knock what she's done, but I just wonder if we've already seen her best while others in here are more inclined to improve. #11 Top Decile has done nothing wrong to date, but Ring Knocker (2nd in debut) was well beaten in the Frizette and she was aided by the pace in the Alcibiades. #8 Puca is said to be training magnificently, but how often do horses run a big one and not show up next out? Race 5 (Filly & Mare Turf): #11 Rusty Slipper: Did not disgrace herself in her first G1 try and at the very least got a good handle of the course and distance. Has stayed out West to train and while this improving 4yo needs a career best I really don't think it's out of reach. The filly she beat at MTH is a two time Graded Stakes winner and has been placed in five other Graded Stakes so it's not as if she's beaten absolutely nothing. Motion generally doesn't put his horses in unreasonable spots and this one is versatile enough to work out a good trip regardless of how fast they go. Every Breeders' Cup seems to have at least one "what the..." moment and this could be the one for 2014. #6 Fiesolana: She's won at every Group level in Ireland, defeating a decent bunch in taking out her G1 two starts ago. She broke her maiden at this distance and while she has since failed twice in her two tries past a mile, two siblings were jumpers and another was a G2 winner at Hollywood over 10f. Connections had been saying that the Mile was their preference (even though they listed this event as their first preference) and she was one of the first 14 in the pre-entries for that but still ended up here. They've talked down their confidence about her staying the trip which is suspicious seeing as how they've got her in here. Trainer has become an emerging force in Ireland and I don't think he'd put this one in the wrong spot. #5 Secret Gesture: This was my initial pick but I was put off by the fact that Spencer chose to ride the other Qatar Racing filly, whose chances I don't really like. G1 placed twice and second in a G2 against the boys (winner came back and won the Woodbine Mile) shows that the ability is there. #3 Dank: Fantastic '14 debut in Dubai but threw in a clunker at Ascot. Comes in with a longer layoff than last year and must trust that Stoute has her right. #1 Abaco and #10 Stephanie's Kitten are exotics uses. Race 6 (Filly & Mare Sprint): #5 Artemis Agrotera: Only losses have come when she ran without Lasix and when she was put in a TOUGH return spot in the Acorn. She can go to the front or run them down and has the flexibility from post 5 to get in whatever spot is most comfortable given the way the race is run. Regressed figure-wise off two huge performances, but her last itself would win this. #2 Little Alexis: This filly has a motor but is a tad inexperienced. My Miss Sophia was no match for her in her debut, although a final 16th in 5 and 3 would be tough for many to match. Ran great in the Test in only her third career start and I wouldn't fret too much over the two turn try at Parx. Ready to bring her flying morning works to the big day. #6 Leigh Court: She has never been out of the money sprinting and has never lost in three tries at 7f. Looks to get a perfect trip but the shipping issues that she had, especially so close to race day, is a big concern. #3 Stonetastic: Bounced off a massive performance at SAR but looks to be back to her best based on her quick zip last week. Needs to prove it wasn't a fluke and that she can stay 7f. Race 7 (Turf Sprint): #5 Ambitious Brew: Combining both confidence and price, this is the one I've looked forward to most this weekend. Couldn't have come home any faster in his career debut, with the winner that day sitting a perfect trip to beat him again two starts later. He then lost to Wild Dude, who went on to defeat Secret Circle, while finishing ahead of Big Macher, and he was very impressive when just being nosed out last time. Off a long layoff he burst a couple lengths clear close to home and was just run down by a horse he didn't see. Downhill form has become crucial and he is that nose away from being a perfect four for four. Absolutely drooling over the double digit ML. #15 Ageless: Became a new filly when switching on to the turf, where her only two losses came when she got too far back. Free as a Bird has been very impressive and this one beat her and probably ran the better race of the two last out. No prior downhill experience is the only negative. #10 Home Run Kitten: Has been one of the best of a good crop of 3yo turf milers but has shown he can do it shorter as well. Won both downhill starts, showing an impressive turn of foot last out when beating my top pick. Has the Cali advantage. #11 Undrafted: Fantastic effort in the Darley July cemented his place as one of the best NA sprinters. However, his actual wins are few and far between, with his win at Belmont coming with a big weight break. Also has the lack of a prior downhill try. #14 No Nay Never: Was being touted by Ward as one of his best ever 2yos before heading off the Europe and confirmed that confidence with two fabulous wins. I think that he will end up being the best horse from this race, but as a 3yo and another that hasn't been on this quirky course before I feel that he is more of an exotics use horse. Keep an eye on him for BC '15 at DMR. Race 8 (Juvenile): #7 Texas Red: Breeding suggests he needed a couple starts before showing his true colours but regardless, he was never going to do it sprinting anyways. Calculator has become the wise-guy horse in here but his run in the Front Runner was much more impressive IMO. Started to gain momentum before going wide on the turn and was basically the only horse to make up any sort of ground in the stretch. Desormeaux didn't urge him the final 16th as he realized he wasn't going to get up for second but this one then proceeded to gallop out like a rocket. The pace this time will be much stronger and he rates a big chance to blow by and light up the board. #12 Daredevil: Won in hand in what was IMO the strongest prep for this. Generally the one-turn mile preps for the Juvenile races go quick early and then they walk home (see Frizette for this year's example) but they ran a wicked time, and remember he wasn't urged. Pedigree says two-turns won't be any sort of issue and he showed last time that he doesn't need to be leading the whole way. Dangerous, even from the outside. #8 Super Colossal: Unbeaten and Paco has barely moved an inch in all three starts. He walked home in the Sapling but again it was in a canter so keep that in mind. Concerns are that he might get used up early, even more so off that sizzling 5f work which may not have left much in the tank. #9 Carpe Diem: Visually impressive winning the Breeders' Futurity but that was a pace dominated race through slow fractions. Will have to contend with a speedball directly to his inside and that might be enough to wear him out. Race 9 (Turf): #1 Telescope: Smashing winner at Royal Ascot and has been on my list to follow since then. Trained towards this race and Stoute only brings ones he can win with. Runs best over 12f and on faster ground. All the ones he's lost to this season would blow these away. #7 Flintshire: Another one that runs best without moisture and his Arc run was no fluke; he's a G1 winner and ran second in another behind Cirrus Des Aigles. This year's Arc was a magnificent renewal and just have to wonder how much is left in the tank after that grueling event. However, he wouldn't have to get into full gear to beat the North American contingent. #12 Main Sequence: He is the only "local" of interest. His latter Euro form doesn't stack up but he did run second in the Derby behind the brilliant Camelot. Has shown unbelievable kick to win all three starts this side of the pond by the slimmest of margins. Just don't think he's the quality of the top two. Race 10 (Sprint): #6 Rich Tapestry: Mystery horse no more and has all eyes on him this time around. Continues to train spectacularly and from post 6 should get a great stalking trip behind the speed. No reason to believe he won't run them down again. #14 Bourbon Courage: I think that the outside post is actually advantageous for him. Two speedsters directly to his inside, and with the two runners closest to the rail expected to also gun they could stack up down the backstretch and on the turn. That would allow him to slot in and get cover in a dangerous position. He won his first two lifetime starts with triple digit Beyers, going a 21 and 4 quarter on debut which shows he does have the speed to get into a good position up close. If the trip I envision doesn't work out it will probably be because they blaze up front and that will set it up for the closers. Continues to sparkle in the mornings and will be ready to fire. #13 Work All Week: Speedball has never lost in 9 main track tries, but this is a big step up from the ILL-bred stakes at Fairmount 14 months ago. However, he is extremely game and brave and as the outside speed is very dangerous. #12 Fast Anna: Puts the blinkers back on after a not so gutsy performance. Very talented young horse but is inexperienced and has been getting away with light weights in all his races so far. Race 11 (Mile): #10 Summer Front: Has a devastating record at the distance; G3 winner, G2 winner, 2nd in a G1. Proven he can run well fresh and has not really had any hiccups in preparation for this. I like the switch to Castellano as he can continue improving this one. Has in fact been favoured in two G1s this year and will go off as one of the longest prices runners in this one. Factor in the fact that this is a Clement trainee and this becomes an even more dangerous bomb. #12 Seek Again: Much the best at the Spa and it's hard to get a true read on his run in the Shadwell. Looked like he was coming with Wise Dan, albeit on different parts of the track, but then proceeded to get shut off and lost all chance. Judging by his works he seems to prefer it firmer anyways. He gave everyone heart failure when he was within a head of WD on his seasonal bow and was never going to stay the 10f in the Manhattan. Has a huge chance, but inside posts dominated the mile turf races on Friday. #5 Toronado: By far brings the best form into this race, but he's unknown going this direction (one left-handed run was going longer so ignore that) and as mentioned in my write-up with Osaila, the Hannons have previously not done well bringing horses over the Atlantic. The one to beat but no sure thing. #4 Mustajeeb: 3yo with tons of ability, but Weld is another whose success over here has been scant. #9 Anodin: Will be overbet based on the Goldikova pedigree, and while he is a very good horse himself he just doesn't seem to get over the line in front often. #14 Karakontie was my original selection but he lost his winning chance at the draw. #3 Veda seems to do her best running fresh. #13 Tourist will be a star, next year... Race 12 (Classic): #2 Cigar Street: His form doesn't fit the mold of a Classic winner but I'm willing to give him an exception. Unquestionably has the talent, he just hasn't had a chance to show it in a top event. Loved his return effort considering Mott was 0 for the mud the past few years at SAR and he followed that up by taking care of what was put in front of him at Churchill. Third off the layoff now and the only other time that happened he won a G3 in a career best effort, easily disposing of Take Charge Indy and Pants On Fire. Has been one of the best lookers in preparation for this and he should get a great trip just behind the lead. All systems go to show in his first chance on the big stage. #11 Tonalist: Much more relaxed with the blinkers off and easily breezed past them last time. Has not put in a poor performance all year and the pace should again suit. Doesn't need to be as far back as he was last out but the result may just be the same. Those are the only two I'm using on top. #3 Imperative, #8 Zivo, and #1 Prayer for Relief all can clunk up and juice the exotics. I can't and won't knock what #6 Shared Belief has accomplished to date. I just don't think he has ever actually beaten much and there's also the dirt vs. AWT debate. That aside, his run in the Awesome Again was extremely grueling and you have to wonder just how much that took out of him. #4 Moreno does his best racing on the lead and I can't see them taking a hold and letting Baffert steal one with #7 Bayern. Duel may ensue and burn out both of them. #13 California Chrome: Back on his home track and training much better. I have never been a fan of this horse but if he runs back to his Preakness he'll be in with a shot. Using underneath. This is not the surface for #9 Toast of New York. #5 V. E. Day must prove his Travers wasn't a fluke. #12 Candy Boy is much more suited to 9f than 10f. #10 Footbridge and #14 Majestic Harbor would be bigger shockers than Arcangues. $1 Early Pick Four Race 4: 2, 4, 5 Race 5: 1, 3, 5, 6, 10, 11 Race 6: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 Race 7: 5 $90 $1 Cover Early Pick Four Race 4: 2, 4, 5 Race 5: 3, 5, 6, 11 Race 6: 2, 5 Race 7: 10, 15 $48 $1 Late Pick Four Race 9: 1 Race 10: 6, 12, 13, 14 Race 11: 4, 5, 9, 10, 12 Race 12: 2, 3, 6, 11 $80 $1 Cover Late Pick Four Race 9: 7 Race 10: 6, 13, 14 Race 11: 4, 5, 9, 10, 12 Race 12: 2, 11 $30 After six full pages on Microsoft Word...good luck! 
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#2
11-01-2014, 08:11 AM
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I'm not a chalk player either so I didn't fair too well yesterday. Lets get'em today!!!
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#4
11-02-2014, 01:10 AM
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If anyone is interested in seeing how terrible I did today...
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#5
11-02-2014, 01:18 AM
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