Good Lord another pletcher freak - Page 3

ArlJim78 · #41 06-15-2006, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler

Dream all you want but these 2yr olds that start this early never win the derby. Young horses are pressed way too early not to mention these are 5.5F races. Horses that win these races usually have excellent speed but that doesn't necessarily win at the 10F distance.

I'm not sure if it is true that no horse has won the derby with such an early start. I'd like to see the data on that. I'll grant you this, many of the horses that win often and early at two are speedy precocious types that end up with distance limitations. But that doesn't mean that it's impossible to start in June and win in May.

There was a good thread on ESPN a few months back where people offered what appeared to be credible data that suggested that lots of gallops were not the answer and that actual racing early in the 2YO season was more beneficial for bone and structure development and would reduce the likehood of injury. Of course over-racing would be problematic.

Keep this in perspective also, not many horses win the derby period, so it's easy to come up with statistics that are not significant.

#42 06-15-2006, 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I'm not sure if it is true that no horse has won the derby with such an early start. I'd like to see the data on that. I'll grant you this, many of the horses that win often and early at two are speedy precocious types that end up with distance limitations. But that doesn't mean that it's impossible to start in June and win in May.

There was a good thread on ESPN a few months back where people offered what appeared to be credible data that suggested that lots of gallops were not the answer and that actual racing early in the 2YO season was more beneficial for bone and structure development and would reduce the likehood of injury. Of course over-racing would be problematic.

Keep this in perspective also, not many horses win the derby period, so it's easy to come up with statistics that are not significant.

Horse that win in June are winning at 5F races. It is completely useless for a horse that needs to stretch out to 10F. All you get now are speed freaks that everyone goes crazy over but that have zero chance of winning the derby.

SentToStud · #43 06-15-2006, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler

Horse that win in June are winning at 5F races. It is completely useless for a horse that needs to stretch out to 10F. All you get now are speed freaks that everyone goes crazy over but that have zero chance of winning the derby.

I don't follow your point here. Circular Quay was obviously ready to run to have performed as he did off just two very modest 1/2 mile works. There will be 20-30 2yo MSW sprints run at major tracks this week and it will be hard to find another colt or filly that ran or will run as well as this one did. To me that's the story. Not whether he's going to win a race that is 11 months away. I also disagree that a nice sprint win is a useless gauge for eventually running longer distances. After all, you have to start somewhere. I think he's a very nice colt who ran a super debut off modest works. I'm just glad I saw the race.

#44 06-15-2006, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I don't follow your point here. Circular Quay was obviously ready to run to have performed as he did off just two very modest 1/2 mile works. There will be 20-30 2yo MSW sprints run at major tracks this week and it will be hard to find another colt or filly that ran or will run as well as this one did. To me that's the story. Not whether he's going to win a race that is 11 months away. I also disagree that a nice sprint win is a useless gauge for eventually running longer distances. After all, you have to start somewhere. I think he's a very nice colt who ran a super debut off modest works. I'm just glad I saw the race.

Stud i was gonna post something to that effect but your post covered everything I was going to say. I love the sport, and I really appreciate talent and exciting debuts like these even when i don't have a quarter on the race. Isn't that why we love this game? I guess I don't understand the people who love to knock everything. I mean Ruler you can have any opinion you want, but you are bashing us for liking the way this horse ran and talking about things far off when you are the guy telling us about Showing Up in the Travers?

disappearingdan_akaplaya · #45 06-15-2006, 03:50 PM

cobalt recently@hollywood still stands out as the most impressive debut to me so far this year, mike any1 else have any idea what his number and beyer were? really difficult for me to get full blown excited about a 3yo season and derby run for a current 2yo, in this day and age unfortunately alotta the babies cant maintain the soundness from now through the 3yo TC campaign

#46 06-15-2006, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

Stud i was gonna post something to that effect but your post covered everything I was going to say. I love the sport, and I really appreciate talent and exciting debuts like these even when i don't have a quarter on the race. Isn't that why we love this game? I guess I don't understand the people who love to knock everything. I mean Ruler you can have any opinion you want, but you are bashing us for liking the way this horse ran and talking about things far off when you are the guy telling us about Showing Up in the Travers?

Big difference between a proven race horse and a maiden winner. I don't think Showing Up can beat Bernardini but I just hope he does because I get to see him at Belmont. I just watched the replay and the horse was very impressive and is a Thunder Gulch, but Tabor has these great 2yr ollds all the time. I usually wait until the Hopeful before I go declaring any 2yr old a potential derby horse.

#47 06-15-2006, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

cobalt recently@hollywood still stands out as the most impressive debut to me so far this year, mike any1 else have any idea what his number and beyer were? really difficult for me to get full blown excited about a 3yo season and derby run for a current 2yo, in this day and age unfortunately alotta the babies cant maintain the soundness from now through the 3yo TC campaign

Playa Cobalt was very good, but you have to watch the CD 2nd on replay. I didn't bet the race and was just watching it but it shocked me. Horse was in back of the pack and made a move with no urging, didn't switch leads until late and when he did it was breathtaking. Last 3/16ths he got in 17 or a shade under which is just crazy. He went 5 1/2 in 1:03:3 and whats exciting about him is that he doesnt look like one of those speed bred and speed crazy horses who dont ever go on to do anything later in the year. Thunder Gulchs arent usually that fast in their 2yo races and his mom Circle Of Life was 3rd in the Ashland going two turns so he should only get better.
I don't EVER get excited about two year olds in June or July but this one's race had to be seen to be believed.

disappearingdan_akaplaya · #48 06-15-2006, 04:06 PM

just watched it on race replays and youre absolutely right mike very impressive, started to pick up steam right about where the track kitchen is there on the CD backside(cool view to watch the races from and see em comin head on at ya down the backstretch) and just kept rollin

#49 06-15-2006, 04:14 PM

Prob the most impressive debut I have seen in a long time. I think I will be the in the middle on this. The horse I think can stretch out. He wasnt even running until that lat 3/16ths and he went into another gear. Then he was cruising when he was locked down by the jock. The four horses that Oracle mentioned have about 1% chance of making the Derby. It is always good to get excited and this should be a FANTASTIC year for two year olds and 2007 should be THE BEST YEAR WE EVER HAD FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. I think we should all sit back and enjoy these wonder animals. It isnt often that you get a two year old crop like we have.

ArlJim78 · #50 06-15-2006, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler

Horse that win in June are winning at 5F races. It is completely useless for a horse that needs to stretch out to 10F. All you get now are speed freaks that everyone goes crazy over but that have zero chance of winning the derby.

What would you recommend? Gallops until may then debut at 10F?
You have to get the horses up to racing speed in order to have something to build on. And you can't just start them out racing at a mile or more, you have to build up to it.

Also, every horse isn't cut out for the derby but that doesn't mean they can't make a nice run at the 2yo races in the summer and fall.

sumitas · #51 06-15-2006, 04:49 PM

You don't see derby contenders until later in their 2 yr old season.

#52 06-15-2006, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

Geez, I just cant believe it. Pletcher has the best 4 two yeard olds I have seen so far this year. Check out Quay in the 2nd at CD. You won't believe it.

Scat Daddy and Minefield are nice, but I think Asmussen's Napa Cat is also an extremely underrated colt....he can beat Minefield in the Bashford Manor...people will realize how good he is....I've seen him train and he can really run.

ArlJim78 · #53 06-15-2006, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sumitas

You don't see derby contenders until later in their 2 yr old season.

Usually not. I just don't think it is a given that if a horse starts in June he cannot win the derby.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #54 06-15-2006, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler

It is June. How many times did Bernardini race before last June? Who cares what happens until October at the earliest. If you are talking KY Derby in June of the 2yr old year, you have zero credibility.

Some of us like to pick out good talented two year olds, and see how they fair there three year old season. It is a game. I like picking out the best horses before they actually become the best horses. By the way, the Sanford Stakes is next month.

A horse named Afleet Alex won the Sanford a few years ago, and look how he turned out.

LARHAGE · #55 06-15-2006, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Betsy

It's way too early to say that Pletcher has all the East Coast juvenile races locked up - the best bred ones haven't even run yet and may not for another couple of months. Who is Minefield?

I

Exactly, and his juice has a tendency to have a short shelf-life.

LARHAGE · #56 06-15-2006, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

One thing I'll say about Pletcher, he can keep them going and winning stakes into their 3yo or 4yo years. More Than Ready won very early at 2 and won stakes at 3, Limehouse won at 2 and was winning stakes at 4. If anyone keeps them going, it's Pletcher.

Yeah, I was especially impressed with Half-ours.

#57 06-15-2006, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Some of us like to pick out good talented two year olds, and see how they fair there three year old season. It is a game. I like picking out the best horses before they actually become the best horses. By the way, the Sanford Stakes is next month.

A horse named Afleet Alex won the Sanford a few years ago, and look how he turned out.

Alex also broke his maiden in June. But don't go using historical facts and data here, people get very offended by these things.

packerbacker7964 · #58 06-15-2006, 05:50 PM

I hate these races they run at Churchill for the baby's because the outside horses have a huge bias against them. How many of these horses running these sprints go on for bigger and better things? I've heard that the classic trainer say it takes months to get the go,go,go out of them atfer the sales to get too settle down. I'd like to train my horses on long,uphill jogs that get longer and longer on the grass. I think that's what would build stamia in them. But what do I know?

luvthesales · #59 06-15-2006, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Usually not. I just don't think it is a given that if a horse starts in June he cannot win the derby.

Not only that, they used to start in March. Or even earlier, in some cases. They don't train them like they used to, which I think is unfortunate.

ArlJim78 · #60 06-15-2006, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler

Horse that win in June are winning at 5F races. It is completely useless for a horse that needs to stretch out to 10F. All you get now are speed freaks that everyone goes crazy over but that have zero chance of winning the derby.

Are you sure about that? I have listed below the number of derby winners that debuted in each month for the past fourteen years.

June 3
July 2
August 1
Sept 3
Oct 3
Nov 1
Dec 1

As it turns out June is a pretty popular month to debut a future derby winner.
Also all of the June starts were at 5 furlongs so that distance would appear to be quite useful in getting a horse to 10F. This is not a huge amount of data but it is enough to show how far off base your comment was.