6/9 ATR: A. Zayat, Beyer, Serling, Haskin, Migliore & Hazleton

[Kasept]

Monday ATR Triple Crown Recap Part 2..

9:45 Andy Serling
10:15 Steve Haskin
10:30 Ahmed Zayat
11:10 Andy Beyer
11:30 Rich Migliore & Scott Hazelton

Archive, etc., http://stevebyk.com; SXM replay 6-9a Wednesday..

[Indian Charlie]

I just listened to the Serling fragment of the show.

I was in agreement with most of what he/you had to say, but the thing that I find frustrating and inconsistent with Beyer's numbers is the sometimes adherence to strictly using other races on the card as a barometer, and a sometimes divergence from this when a split variant is used because a race result doesn't meet some earlier preconceived idea of what the race result should be.

Wow, that was a Freddy run on sentence if I've ever seen one.

Anyways, I think this is a pretty cut and dried instance of the second race at that distance being vastly superior to the first, and I don't see why they didn't split it. How much time elapsed between the two races?

Maybe sometimes I don't account for the numbers representing what the winner actually ran, instead of what he could have run had he been asked for more earlier.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I just listened to the Serling fragment of the show.

I was in agreement with most of what he/you had to say, but the thing that I find frustrating and inconsistent with Beyer's numbers is the sometimes adherence to strictly using other races on the card as a barometer, and a sometimes divergence from this when a split variant is used because a race result doesn't meet some earlier preconceived idea of what the race result should be.

Wow, that was a Freddy run on sentence if I've ever seen one.

Anyways, I think this is a pretty cut and dried instance of the second race at that distance being vastly superior to the first, and I don't see why they didn't split it. How much time elapsed between the two races?

Maybe sometimes I don't account for the numbers representing what the winner actually ran, instead of what he could have run had he been asked for more earlier.

You just dont split the variant if you are making figures. You do it when it makes common sense meaning if the number you come up with doesnt make sense against the other races on card. In this case Beyer is of opinion a 105 was the correct fig and splitting it didnt make sense. He said "we know what AP is by now". I knew the fig he would use immediately after race. Its not hard to do these things after you have a baseline. Again his opinion of AP is that he is NOT a particularly fast colt yet and nothing in his races suggests he has ever run a big fig. Conversely he is of the belief Materialty and Upstart threw it down in the Florida Derby and ran a very fast race. It's possible they did and neither lived to repeat it again

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I just listened to the Serling fragment of the show.

I was in agreement with most of what he/you had to say, but the thing that I find frustrating and inconsistent with Beyer's numbers is the sometimes adherence to strictly using other races on the card as a barometer, and a sometimes divergence from this when a split variant is used because a race result doesn't meet some earlier preconceived idea of what the race result should be.

Wow, that was a Freddy run on sentence if I've ever seen one.

Anyways, I think this is a pretty cut and dried instance of the second race at that distance being vastly superior to the first, and I don't see why they didn't split it. How much time elapsed between the two races?

Maybe sometimes I don't account for the numbers representing what the winner actually ran, instead of what he could have run had he been asked for more earlier.

BTW fig making is all about preconceived ideas. Dunbar actually gave you the plausible way the fig could have been higher. That would have required Beyer to think AP Frosted Coach Inge and VD ran there best races ever. That was never going to happen from Beyer "he knows what AP is by now". I suggest if Materialty and AP were 5.5l ahead of the Frosted and Materialty had won by a nose he might of used 108/9 with the same clocking because materialty had proven to him in Florida Derby that he was capable of such a fig. But that is a complete guess on my part

[Danzig]

are you guys sure you're smart enough to discuss all this?

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I just listened to the Serling fragment of the show.

I was in agreement with most of what he/you had to say, but the thing that I find frustrating and inconsistent with Beyer's numbers is the sometimes adherence to strictly using other races on the card as a barometer, and a sometimes divergence from this when a split variant is used because a race result doesn't meet some earlier preconceived idea of what the race result should be.

Wow, that was a Freddy run on sentence if I've ever seen one.

Anyways, I think this is a pretty cut and dried instance of the second race at that distance being vastly superior to the first, and I don't see why they didn't split it. How much time elapsed between the two races?

Maybe sometimes I don't account for the numbers representing what the winner actually ran, instead of what he could have run had he been asked for more earlier.

Both the Andy brothers will not give any credit to AP because they can't admit the are and were wrong. I will take Ritchie Miglore's opinion that he is a great horse since he has actually ridden for a living over these guys. I love the comment when Andy S. said he got perfect trips in all 3 races. Normally speed horses do have less trouble. Maybe it's my imagination, but Andy B. seems to give west coast horses lower speed figures, we should call him Andy Bias!!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba

Both the Andy brothers will not give any credit to AP because they can't admit the are and were wrong. I will take Ritchie Miglore's opinion that he is a great horse since he has actually ridden for a living over these guys. I love the comment when Andy S. said he got perfect trips in all 3 races. Normally speed horses do have less trouble. Maybe it's my imagination, but Andy B. seems to give west coast horses lower speed figures, we should call him Andy Bias!!

Yeah, Beyer and I have trouble admitting we are wrong. You got me.

I'm surprised your computer didn't throw up on you when you made this post. Or maybe it did.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba

Both the Andy brothers will not give any credit to AP because they can't admit the are and were wrong. I will take Ritchie Miglore's opinion that he is a great horse since he has actually ridden for a living over these guys. I love the comment when Andy S. said he got perfect trips in all 3 races. Normally speed horses do have less trouble. Maybe it's my imagination, but Andy B. seems to give west coast horses lower speed figures, we should call him Andy Bias!!

So really you only heard the part of the conversation that you wanted to hear.

[Alabama Stakes]

pretty sure the last 3 Triple Crown winners in the 70's had perfect trips too. I already knew I missed the boat after watching that 6/1/15 5 furlong work. If that Belmont win didn't convince you about that hoss, you are just plain anti west coast. Probably still hatin on Affirmed and Sunday Silence

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

So really you only heard the part of the conversation that you wanted to hear.

The college exam analogy was spot on.
Instead of comparing AP to Secretariat I am trying to envision a race between AP and Race Day Arkansas Derby day. It was one of the few race cards throughout the prep season that older horses ran the exact distance that the 3yo's ran.

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Yeah, Beyer and I have trouble admitting we are wrong. You got me.

I'm surprised your computer didn't throw up on you when you made this post. Or maybe it did.

I just checked, everything is good with my computer.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Yeah, Beyer and I have trouble admitting we are wrong. You got me.

I'm surprised your computer didn't throw up on you when you made this post. Or maybe it did.

This was funny lol.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba

Both the Andy brothers will not give any credit to AP because they can't admit the are and were wrong. I will take Ritchie Miglore's opinion that he is a great horse since he has actually ridden for a living over these guys. I love the comment when Andy S. said he got perfect trips in all 3 races. Normally speed horses do have less trouble. Maybe it's my imagination, but Andy B. seems to give west coast horses lower speed figures, we should call him Andy Bias!!

On the one hand I find it incredible that people spout this kind of nonsense and actually believe that Andy Beyer has an east coast bias. On the other hand I really want people who believe this garbage to put as much money through the windows as possible.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pointman

On the one hand I find it incredible that people spout this kind of nonsense and actually believe that Andy Beyer has an east coast bias. On the other hand I really want people who believe this garbage to put as much money through the windows as possible.

Unfortunately, they don't. There is an inverse correlation between people that spout these kinds of idiotic opinions on the internet and their betting handle.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

pretty sure the last 3 Triple Crown winners in the 70's had perfect trips too. I already knew I missed the boat after watching that 6/1/15 5 furlong work. If that Belmont win didn't convince you about that hoss, you are just plain anti west coast. Probably still hatin on Affirmed and Sunday Silence

I wouldn't say any of the three had all perfect trips, far from it.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

pretty sure the last 3 Triple Crown winners in the 70's had perfect trips too. I already knew I missed the boat after watching that 6/1/15 5 furlong work. If that Belmont win didn't convince you about that hoss, you are just plain anti west coast. Probably still hatin on Affirmed and Sunday Silence

There is no difference between a horse that is running free on the front without a horse at his throat or more likely you really didn't watch the triple crown races of the 70's or don't understand the difference between the two scenarios?

[pointman]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Unfortunately, they don't. There is an inverse correlation between people that spout these kinds of idiotic opinions on the internet and their betting handle.

Deep down I really know that but I just want to do my part to encourage it.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by pointman

There is no difference between a horse that is running free on the front without a home at his throat or more likely you really didn't watch the triple crown races of the 70's or don't understand the difference between the two scenarios?

Home? Autoincorrect?

Yeah, secretariat didn't get any perfect trips. Slews was slightly better, and alydar at your jugular for 1.5 miles has to be less than ideal.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Home? Autoincorrect?

Yeah, secretariat didn't get any perfect trips. Slews was slightly better, and alydar at your jugular for 1.5 miles has to be less than ideal.

Yes, on my iPhone. But I know you get the point, others apparently don't.

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Unfortunately, they don't. There is an inverse correlation between people that spout these kinds of idiotic opinions on the internet and their betting handle.

So Andy, do you show a profit, year after year?