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Old 09-12-2015, 09:29 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,291
Default 9/12: Belmont Park (7th-10th); Churchill Downs (6th-11th)

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Nice looking group, with Donnie Von Hemel introducing Synchrony, a Pin Oak homebred Tapit colt out of their lovely 8X SW Brownie Points..

Most Likely: #3 Dublinyourmoney 6-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Z Noble 12-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Synchrony 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Bandwith 4-1 WON ($7.80)


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Hidden Candy 4-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Springboard 5-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Hat of Jacks 30-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 W. B. Smudge 10-1 2nd


8th: 47th Pocahontas (G2), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Just Wicked can regress from Adirondack and still win, but there are a couple here that look like they could jump forward on the stretchout to two turns..

Most Likely: #7 Just Wicked 1-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Decked Out 6-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Put Da Blame On Me 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Bold Quality 8-1 3rd (DQ'd from 2nd)


9th: 34th Iroquois (G3), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

A wide open affair with 5 maidens signed on. Thought Star Hill was super in debut getting on track late for Rusty Arnold. Adds Lasix and Jose Ortiz. Baychimo is a full brother to Money'soncharlotte who leaped forward when stretched out herself as a 2yo. Don't be fooled..

Most Likely: #7 Star Hill 10-1 6th
Best Value: #12 Baychimo 30-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Conquest Windycity 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Unbridled Outlaw 4-1 3rd


10th: 32nd Locust Grove, F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Frivolous 3-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #4 Privet Hedge 8-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Cabana 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Keen Pauline SCR


11th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Stand Guard 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Show Bound 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Smart Moon 5-1 WON ($8.80)
Super Add: #6 Metal Magic 7-2 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #5 Moon Gate Warrior 12-1 10th


P6 Grid:

7: 11 (A), 2 (B), 5-7 (C)
8: 7 (A), 1-8 (B), 2-4-5 (C)
9: 7-12 (A), 1-4-5-10 (B), 3-9-11 (C)
10: 6 (A), - (B), 4-5-10/SCR (C)
11: 3-9 (A), 6-12 (B), 4-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x6x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


P4 Grid:

8: 7 (A), 1-8 (B), 2-4-5 (C)
9: 7-12 (A), 1-4-5-10 (B), 3-9-11 (C)
10: 6 (A), 4 (B), 5-10/SCR (C)
11: 3-9 (A), 6-12 (B), 4-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72



BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Pecking order pretty clear in this group of NYB baby girls, but watch for action on #3 (WON) Wild About Harry (12-1), #7 Sweet Peaches (15-1) and #8 Eloweasel (15-1) as all have ability clues in their workout or breeding. Also, put unraced Lunar Boogie in your stable mail as the Unbridled's Song colt outworked Startwithsilver in most recent drill..

Most Likely: #2 Startswithsilver Late SCR
Best Value: #1 Rescue Cat 8-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Bea Bea 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Alyssa and a Lisa 5-1 6th


8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 All Over Me 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Boston Strong 4-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Momma's Mark 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Dark Roast 3-1 WON ($9.50)


9th: 21st Sands Point (G2), F&M-32+, 9f-IT (DD)

Outstanding edition of this with 4 invading Euros as well as visits from Stevens and Bejarano to ride Her Emmynency SCR and Malabar respectively. Combination of midpack stalker type Osaila and Castellano instills fear given Danehill Dancer's consistent form and good Breeders' Cup Juvy Filly Turf try when last seen on these shores. Miss Temple City should sit a great trip right behind pacesetters..

Most Likely: #9 Osaila 4-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Miss Temple City 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Blond Me 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Mrs McDougal 8-1 6th


10th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T

Most Likely: #8 Payment Terms 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #9 Stardom 8-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Banana Thief 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Pegasus Red 8-1 3rd


P4 Grid:

7: 1-2/SCR (A), 9 (B), 5-10 (C)
8: 6-8 (A), 9-10 (B), 3-7 (C)
9: 2-9 (A), 7-11-12 (B), 1-4-5-8-10 (C)
10: 8 (A), 7-9 (B), 2-3-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x5x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
Full (A/B/C): $65 (With $1 All A's Play)


Good luck!
Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 09-12-2015 at 06:36 PM.
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  #2  
Old 09-12-2015, 11:22 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,291
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BEL SCR/CHG'S
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #3  
Old 09-12-2015, 04:28 PM
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jms62 jms62 is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 19,762
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Great ride there by Jose Ortiz
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