A funny thing happened on the way to the coronation...

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Even Nate Silver has recognized he has been woefully incorrect about Donald Trump, particularly when utilizing his polls-plus model:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-donald-trump/

He sounds like me trying to rationalize why I missed the p6.....

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by jms62

Identifying and accepting a problem means you are well on your way to correcting it. Unfortunately he has a better chance of reverting to prior form of 49/50 states correct in 2008 and 50/50 in 2012 than continuing being wrong. I despise both but Hillary a tad more...

It's an unprecedented election cycle. If he's offering 5-1 on Trump, I'm buying.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by geeker2

He sounds like me trying to rationalize why I missed the p6.....

iiiROR!!!

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

iiiROR!!!

Paul Ryan at 100-1??? Hmmm. LOTS of people in power do not want Trump...


https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/b...ner/216136503/

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by jms62

Paul Ryan at 100-1??? Hmmm. LOTS of people in power do not want Trump...


https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/b...ner/216136503/

Ladbroke opened an OTB in 1991 in my old home town in western PA...was packed every day until about 2 yrs ago..just a handfull of hard core players..Closed about year ago

[bigrun]

:

[bigrun]

[Rudeboyelvis]

Have to be troubling for Dems.

Clinton had an 8 point lead in June - now trails by 3 in FL... an 11 point swing downward during one of Trump's worst months.

The new figures:
FLORIDA: Trump 42 – Clinton 39
OHIO: Clinton 41– Trump 41
PENNSYLVANIA: Trump 43 – Clinton 41

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps...6_Smba72th.pdf

For the record, Nate Silver's 80% HRC victory prediction is based on the presumption that she will easily take all of these battleground states:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

I will gladly take Trump at 5-1 from anyone that wants to book it.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Interesting to also note:

From June 30 – July 11
Quinnipiac University surveyed:

1,015 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points;

955 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points;

982Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Considering Comey's *Recommendation* {chortle} came on July 5th, and the subsequent whitewashing of the record by the DOJ occurred on July 6th, a fairly significant number of these poll results were gathered prior to the sham.

Imagine what they would be were the poll taken today.

[bigrun]

[joeydb]

[Danzig]

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/201...ention-n615826

Good riddance

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Danzig

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/201...ention-n615826

Good riddance

Not going anywhere. May no longer be the DNC Chair, but fully embraced by Hill Jung Un and now a high ranking member of her staff:

http://www.commondreams.org/news/201...hultz-top-post

[Rudeboyelvis]

WOW! CNN (which was found to be complicit along with MSNBC and CBS in not only rigging the Democratic nomination but also providing a strong negative bias against Republican candidates in the DNC email purge) probably regrets polling after the RNC convention and BEFORE the DNC Emails were leaked:

Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.

There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000.
The new findings mark Trump's best showing in a CNN/ORC Poll against Clinton since September 2015. Trump's new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump's convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/25/politi...oll/index.html

.pdf of the results found here:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/im...inton.poll.pdf

[Rudeboyelvis]

In an email released in the Wikileaks DNC email dump, DNC officials seem to be giving credence to Trump's conspiracy that Ted Cruz's father may, in fact, have had something to do with John F. Kennedy's assassination.

http://www.redstate.com/kylefoley/20...assinated-jfk/

[OldDog]

"Bipartisanship"



http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/0...ainst-clinton/

[Rudeboyelvis]

DNC in full meltdown mode before it even starts.

So far today we have Hill Jung Un claiming a "woe is me" moment accusing ......holy sh1t I can't even stop laughing long enough to type this....an "Unfair Media Bias AGAINST HER":

http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/...ton-media-bias


Then We get this gem - Hill Jung Un blaming the Russians for the DNC leak because "Putin likes Donald Trump more than me"

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/0...s-trump-226084

THEN Debbie Wasserman Schultz, newly promoted from Head of the DNC to Hill's inner circle, booed and subsequently needed to be escorted away by security from the speaking stage at the Delegation Breakfast:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vid..._security.html

And it hasn't even started yet. Holy cow.

[Rudeboyelvis]

No longer offering 5-1 on Trump.

Now a statistical dead heat:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

No longer offering 5-1 on Trump.

Now a statistical dead heat:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/

Uh oh.....So much for a day one DNC push. Trump leading by almost 10%.

54.1% to 45.9%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...-forecast/#now

[joeydb]