8/2 Saratoga Steeplechase

[Flatterer]

A decent field shows up for a condition allowance that is never won 2 life over hurdles, except for 3 year old races.

The race configuration has 4 turns and only 8 jumps with a half mile flat run after the last jump to the finish.

The handicap rating is listed after the horse name (higher the better).

#1 –Kremlin (116) – Leading trainer Fisher sends out a good runner that finally won at Nashville. Speedy sort’s only chance is to go to the front and stay as long as he can. Too much early pace pressure will have him retreating at the 7th fence on the backstretch the final time. Good flat turf speed. Last half mile gives him a chance to hit the bottom of the super.

#2- Any Given Royal (116) – Wendy Hendricks runner didn’t beat much at Aiken. Won a flat race at Tryon then was up the track at Parx. Positive jockey change to Mitchell - who is undefeated at Saratoga winning for trainer Arch Kingsley and this runner’s trainer Ricky Hendricks. Mitchell stayed off the pace in both wins. He will have to stay off the pace again for any chance. Excellent turf speed but totes high weight. Can finish 3rd for the tri.

#3- Unsinkable (117) – Trainer Voss sends out a front end runner ridden by Doyle that will dual for the lead and weaken late. Good turf speed but has lacked a late closing kick. Gave up last year at Saratoga after a bad jump. May finish at the bottom of the super.

#4- Reporter (112) – Trainer Fout does not have much of a chance. Jockey Geraghty gets to ride after being taken off #2. Has been beaten by others in this race. He is slow on the flat. Throw out.

#5- Alcazar de Maram (116) – Steeplechase stalwart Sheppard sends out an excellent chance to start another winning streak. He has been at Saratoga since July 15th and is ready to go. Nice win at Camden last fall. He has average turf speed. Strong closing finish at Parx. Must use in exotics.

#6- Personal Start (113) - Has not shown much in recent starts against small fields. Slow turf speed but can clunk up at the bottom of the super if he feels like running the last half mile.

#7- Zio Elio (114) – Dalton’s chance to hit the board is slim. Did beat the #1 but only after several runners had bad jumps. Slow turf speed. Pass.

#8- Invocation (120) – Trainer Leslie Young stayed to saddle this runner at Malvern after her husband Paddy’s accident and won easy by 16 lengths. Leading money earning jockey McDermott picks up the mount. Runner always hits the board. Perfect pace scenario will have him stay 5 lengths off the pace saving ground with a strong finish. Gets in light with 149 pounds because he is a 4 year old. Most likely winner.

Selections – A) 8 – 5 B) 2

Probable order of finish: 8-5-2-1-3-6-7-4

Good luck at the races!!