8/5: Saratoga (Day 15; Alydar; Troy)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Yimminy.. Talk about a fire sale.

Most Likely: #8 Cocked and Loaded 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Set the Trappe 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Lucky Lotto 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #3 I Stand Alone 20-1 8th


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Golden Orb 5-1 WON ($14.00)
Next Best: #2 Escapade 2-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Wild and Funny 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Emmport 8-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (5-6) Paid $30.00
$1 Trifecta (5-6-4) Paid $103.25


3rd: Alydar, 4+, 9f (P3, DD)

Breaking Lucky will SCR having run yesterday, but still an interesting quintet. Rally Cry could be on an easy lead and wire, but Windycity is tactical and can win getting back to the good one..

Best Value: #4 Conquest Windycity 3rd
Next Best: #6 Rally Cry WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #3 Mo Tom 4th


4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Summer Mischief 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Millies Party Boy 20-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Hoboe 9-2 WON ($11.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Appealing Briefs 3-1 2nd


5th: NY-Opt CLM/C, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Startwithsilver 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Fire Key 6-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #8 Another Genius 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Cozzy Spring 2-1 7th


P5 Grid:

1: 2-5-8 (A), - (B), 3-6 (C)
2: 2-5 (A), - (B), 4-6-11 (C)
3: 4-6 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
4: 2-8 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
5: 1-7 (A), 2-8 (B), 4-5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

2: 2-5 (A), 4-6 (B), 11 (C)
3: 4-6 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
4: 2-8 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
5: 1-7-8 (A), 2-4 (B), 5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x5 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (5/5,6/7/7) Paid $296.00


6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Honey Graeme 4-1 WON ($8.70)
Next Best: #6 Quick Quick Quick 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Tied Up 15-1 10th
Exotics Use: #9 Mockery 9-2 3rd

$1 Exacta (4-6) Paid $40.00
$0.50 Trifecta (4-6-9) Paid $212.75


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Bar None 8-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Luminary Flight 15-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Mutaraamy 7-2 11th
Exotics Use: #7 Holding Aces 15-1 WON ($43.20)


8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Shiraz 3-1 6th
Best Value:#11 Nutzforboltz 6-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Storm Prophet 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Yummy Bear 15-1 WON ($27.00)


9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Stormy's Song 4-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Luz Mimi 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Royal Inheritance 5-2 WON ($13.80)
Exotics Use: #1e Godolphin entry 5-1 5th/6th


10th: Troy, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Spectacular race.. G3 next year..

Most Likely: #4 Green Mask 8-5 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #6 Holding Gold 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Pure Sensation 9-5 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Mongolian Saturday 15-1 5th


11th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Best Value: #3 Kid Jeter 15-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Otto 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Unbroken Chain 10-1 DNF
Super Add: #12 Escape Velocity Late SCR


P5 Grid:

7: 3-9-11 (A), 7-11 (B), 1-8 (C)
8: 4-11 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
9: 5-8 (A), - (B), 1-3-4 (C)
10: 4 (A), - (B), 2-3-6-9 (C)
11: 1-3-6 (A), 11-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x1x5 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 3x2x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

8: 4-11 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
9: 4-5-8 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
10: 4-6 (A), 3 (B), 2-9 (C)
11: 1-3-6 (A), 2-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x5 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[ScottJ]

One of the saddest performances of the day was seeing Mohaymen eased after 7f in the Alydar. Just hasn't been the same horse as a four year old. Hope that the stable can get him sorted out, but he always has been a win-it all or miss-it horse.

Worthwhile noting that it was a nice job of horsemanship by Junior Alvarado with about 3/16ths remaining. After one or two right handed sticks in the stretch, he eased up and just jogged the horse home.

[atolunch]

Great job on the early P4.

Congrats and thanks as always!!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Kasept

SAR SCR/CHG'S

Note the late (2:30p) SCR of #12 Escape Velocity from the 11th..

[Kasept]

Saratoga Monday P6 C/O $91,535

[Alabama Stakes]

It should be noted that the boss came within a dirty nose beat in the first cost him a huge pick 5.
Also 5 deep in the late pick 4 for big bucks to no avail proving that it doesn't just happen to me.
Amazing job of handicapping by the best that's ever been.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

One of the saddest performances of the day was seeing Mohaymen eased after 7f in the Alydar. Just hasn't been the same horse as a four year old. Hope that the stable can get him sorted out, but he always has been a win-it all or miss-it horse.

Worthwhile noting that it was a nice job of horsemanship by Junior Alvarado with about 3/16ths remaining. After one or two right handed sticks in the stretch, he eased up and just jogged the horse home.

We'll see what they do, but there was uniform agreement around the track that it's over for Mohaymen. He was probably never as good as it first appeared, but his career is still one of the odder implosions of a prominent young horse in recent memory.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by atolunch

Great job on the early P4.

Congrats and thanks as always!!

THX Larry! Another fun Sunday. Sorry to not get the late quad closed out.. Hope you and everyone did well.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

It should be noted that the boss came within a dirty nose beat in the first cost him a huge pick 5.
Also 5 deep in the late pick 4 for big bucks to no avail proving that it doesn't just happen to me. Amazing job of handicapping by the best that's ever been.

Dan.. Appreciate the acknowledgement. Getting the P4 done at least paid for the P5 ticket and such, but that was a very tough beat with struggling Diodoro in the opener. Even a Cocked and Loaded win was OK. Thought the late was coming home too, but when Contessa wins, I lose.

Let's try and close out week 3 well today. Weather has ended up fine after expectations for a washout..