Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

As I said many times before, he should be running only in 7F to on mile races around one turn.

Pretty simple regarding him.

[cakes44]

Yes, I get that. There are plenty of people who would have agreed with that assessment before this race. I was wondering what the thoughts are about him topping his previous high BSF by 17 and even topping his BSF from his most recent one-turn mile(the Gotham) by 28 points?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Yes, I get that. There are plenty of people who would have agreed with that assessment before this race. I was wondering what the thoughts are about him topping his previous high BSF by 17 and even topping his BSF from his most recent one-turn mile(the Gotham) by 28 points?

Andy said this before the Withers and before Wood, Steve even had Servis on the air and intimidated as much. Steve went as far as to suggest by-passing the classics, Nick Tammaro said as much as well. So the fact that he ran well at was apparently his best distance is hardly a surprise.

7.50 and a 107 BSF is a whatever moment. To be fair all the things I posted could be genuine if it did not occur during a 30 for 60 run by the barn, that's when we all should be alarmed.

I don't know what you want Andy to say publicly I assure you he won't because that would be irresponsible for a person in his position. Me I am nobody I can say what I want and considering I wrong most of the time vs. Andy who is right most of the time nobody should take me seriously.

[cakes44]

Yeah I suppose I am fishing a bit.

[moses]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Andy said this before the Withers and before Wood, Steve even had Servis on the air and intimidated as much. Steve went as far as to suggest by-passing the classics, Nick Tammaro said as much as well. So the fact that he ran well at was apparently his best distance is hardly a surprise.

7.50 and a 107 BSF is a whatever moment. To be fair all the things I posted could be genuine if it did not occur during a 30 for 60 run by the barn, that's when we all should be alarmed.

I don't know what you want Andy to say publicly I assure you he won't because that would be irresponsible for a person in his position. Me I am nobody I can say what I want and considering I wrong most of the time vs. Andy who is right most of the time nobody should take me seriously.

So what’s the solution here?

As bettors, do we just bet with Servis until he “cools off”? Do we avoid races he’s in? Do we try to beat him?

As people who care about horses, do we want regulatory changes to reduce the ways trainers can game the current system?

[Kasept]

You know what's interesting in all this?

Not a peep about Red Ruby increasing her Beyer form 15 points from the Black Eyed Susan (89) to Delaware Oaks (104)..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Andy said this before the Withers and before Wood, Steve even had Servis on the air and intimidated as much. Steve went as far as to suggest by-passing the classics, Nick Tammaro said as much as well. So the fact that he ran well at was apparently his best distance is hardly a surprise.

Hey.. Norm Crosby.. Intimated.. It's intimated.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Hey.. Norm Crosby.. Intimated.. It's intimated.

Grammarly can only do so much Steve it cannot make an illiterate pencil salesman proofread.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You know what's interesting in all this?

Not a peep about Red Ruby increasing her Beyer form 15 points from the Black Eyed Susan (89) to Delaware Oaks (104)..

Firenze Fire paid 7.50 for a barn that has won at 50%. There is documentation in the public domain that suggests a substantial amount of money came pouring into many of the pools. Why conflate the issue with Red Ruby? Why attempt to normalize it? Is this type of activity what the powers that be wish to be normal(maybe TSG)? Does NYRA really want a barn winning at 50%? Do they want the entirety of a trainers barn to improve 10 to 15 BSF points off their last start? I get it a Kellyn Gorder filly ran a colossal race, the guy has had 100 starters in 6 months and wins at a good 17%, you really want the community to be vocal about his one good horse running a big race?

YOU told Jason to keep this horse around one turn; you even were forward enough to suggest to skip the classics. That said NONE of what we have been treated to by Team Servis is healthy, and or the smoke trail of the computer wagering, I am not saying it's criminal, I am not saying it's so different than 10 days in the life of a Rudy cycle or many a trainer we all have witnessed over the years. I don't see why we need to accept it as a standard operating procedure or remotely OK, nor do I get wondering why Red Ruby performance is comparable.

I don't hate computer players to the contrary I think in a way they have proven the game is beatable. The advantages they have are the ones they created and or have been afforded to them. Fair play to all

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Hey.. Norm Crosby.. Intimated.. It's intimated.

I saw his mistake too, but didn't think of Norm Crosby. Haven't thought of him in years. He's got to be long gone. If he were alive, he'd probably be a hundred and ten. He was the absolute king of malapropism and he could do it so seamlessly. He was a very funny guy.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cal828

He was the absolute king of malapropism and he could do it so seamlessly. He was a very funny guy.

Just like Freddy!





Norm Crosby is still alive! He's 90.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Why conflate the issue with Red Ruby?

My point in bringing up Red Ruby, no matter what anyone's feeling are towards Servis' success, is to demonstrate that it's not that unusual for 3yo's to improve markedly at junctures along the development process.

[Konk]

A 30 point move by a 3yo is not impossible.
Big moves happen all the time. I love to anticipate a big move.

Usually there are some clues indicating it is coming - just beating the 2yo top, pairing tops.....but this one didn't show anything, imho, to indicate such a big move. Couple that with literally last second heavy action by a minority, and one has to wonder.

The horse was a contender, he had the top fig a few months ago. He was cutting back fro the TC prep distances. Had he been bet down to 5-2 gradually, suggesting a lot of people were looking at him, it would not have been an issue.

But the last 36 seconds and a monster move......perception is the only thing that counts. If he won an earned a 95 Beyer.....not suspicious. The discussion would be on his next race.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by moses

So what’s the solution here?

As bettors, do we just bet with Servis until he “cools off”? Do we avoid races he’s in? Do we try to beat him?

As people who care about horses, do we want regulatory changes to reduce the ways trainers can game the current system?

Pretty good questions.
I've learned over the years the worst thing you can do is try to beat a streaking barn when they're connecting.
So,you go one of two ways:
Skip the races with the hot barns...…..or include them on most of your tickets.
It helps to be on top of a circuit,if you notice a capable barn trending hot early on then you might just lean that barns way until they show signs of bottoming.
It's the old what goes up must come down deal...…….sooner or later for whatever reason the hottest barns cool off(with a very few exceptions).
Norman McKnight is a prime example,he was hitting with just about every single horse he sent out when Woodbine opened up a couple months back......it was shocking how much he was winning.
But...…..he hit an iceberg a few weeks back and now he's kind off a toss and he's still getting hit hard at the windows.

It also helps if you're a multi-race bettor.
A lot of times the hard win money on the streak barns doesn't show up in the P-3/4/5's...…..and if it does,it's attached to low priced morning line runners in the other races.
If you're wise to the streak barn you just add that barns horse to your multi ticket in the dark......you don't even look at the PP's.
The cost shouldn't extend your ticket too much and you'd be surprised how often the blind add on keeps a ticket alive.
Brad Cox at Oaklawn earlier in the year was a great example.
He was almost an auto-add for the entire meet,and for good reason...…

If you're a win bettor it's tough to handle due to the lack of long term value.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Just like Freddy!





Norm Crosby is still alive! He's 90.

Good to hear that Norm is still with us.

[freddymo]

Paul Matties did an outstanding job of explaining the confluence of events that he deemed the "perfect storm" concerning the Dwyer.

Paul is not as easy to follow nor as eloquent a speaker as some but no denying he is super sharp.

The best part of the 45 minutes was Paul's acknowledgment that this race looks terrible on many levels and EVEN IF the circumstances are 100% above board it shouldn't be discounted as just another day at the races which in reality it was. He gets looking bad is not OK just because a few people with expertise can explain circumstances away. I appreciated that position very much. It showed an actual level of caring about bettors who he competes with daily.