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#1
06-08-2019, 08:06 AM
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Belmont Day Picks
Still finalizing some opinions and wagering strategies but here are my current thoughts:
Race 2: It appears No Mans Land has found the right spot coming off a sneaky good return making an early move into a strong pace before flattening late off the layoff. Should be tighter today and I just couldn't find anyone else in here I wanted. Going to single in the early Pk-4 on a small play. The Easy Goer: Struggling with this seemingly simple race. I like Dream Maker still who clearly has more talent than he's shown. I'm not a huge Alwaysmining fan but he does seem to have a slight but sturdy figure edge. Outshine ran pretty well in the Tampa Derby considering the pace and you can draw a line through his last. Majid had it all his own way but did it pretty nicely last time. Still Dreaming I guess was drilled previously by Alwaysmining and lost a seemingly slow Chick Land to Lexitonian but he was pretty wide and gaining late. The added ground today should help. Tough race for a small field...I'll probably spread a bit and Alwaysmining will win for fun. The Just a Game: I'm a glutton for punishment as for some reason I always end up trying to fade Rushing Fall. My theory in here is to use all the "others" from the Distaff Turf Mile as I think the turf was tricky that day and not everyone handled it. Daddy is a Legend and Capla Temptress also had the layoff excuse and Environs might have needed that one/lost most hope at the break. The Ogden Phipps: Another seemingly straightforward race which I might be overcomplicating. Not that the figure is wrong, but I wonder that Come Dancing will ever replicate the 114 we saw two back...not that she needs to to win here. Good chance she is just too fast and wires but I want to take a chance that Escape Clause is very intent on making the front and it sets it up for Bisou...I also am probably insane but I want a little Pacific Wind in here. If it heats up and they're coming back I think she'll be moving late. Chad pointed her here last year and she fired off her best shots in the two preps. Those figs are slower than the top here but if you cross off Come Dancing's 114 they aren't that far off...he went straight to the Ruffian this year and while CD drilled her it was a sloppy track and first off. Taking a small shot with her today. The Jaipur: Turf sprints are just not my specialty. I have nothing clever in here, I think World of Trouble is a very likely winner and Disco Partner/Belvoir Bay the main dangers. The Acorn: Haven't spent much time on this one just based on where it is in the sequence. I had kind of liked Proud Emma last out and maybe I can forgive that effort. She might not be up to these but surely should get plenty of pace to run at today. Haven't heard anyone in the world who says they like SE today which is kind of odd to me even though I can understand why. I still view her as the one to beat personally. Be back later with the rest. 
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#2
06-08-2019, 09:49 AM
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Since you asked so nicely in the other thread...
Race 2- Better Tapit finds a very beatable field for his debut and the pedigree on female side is there. Mom was in the money in a 12 furlong group 3 in Ireland and she is kin to stakes fillies Yesterday and Quarter Moon. As ussen also popped yesterday with a firster, albeit a sprinter that was based here. Leaning on him in pick 4 and usually 4,6,8,9 a little. Race 3- Outshine is a single. Ran a big race at Tampa, as the horse closest to the pace that collapsed. Troubled filled Wood is a throw out and I like that they regrouped and are aiming for second half of year. I’ve never gotten the Alwaysmining hype and don’t like him at all coming back in 3 weeks after tiring like he did in the Preakness. Race 4- Leaning on Rushing Fall for obvious reasons and Daddy is a Legend who had to get a lot out of race at Churchill and is due to win won of these. Backup with 3,6,7 in pick 4. Race 5- singling Midnight Bisou. I have all the respect in the world for Come Dancing but she’s been beating up on lesser lately and I’m not convinced she wants to go this far against this caliber. Obviously if the track is like it was yesterday she’s dangerous but I cannot imagine Smith allowing her an easy lead. Race 6-Strange race in that I’m against the two favorites but don’t have a strong opinion. I don’t like Belvoir Bay shipping just 12 days after her last and while I love World of Trouble I just get a feeling he’s due for a poor effort and might get cooked in the pace. I’m going to box the 3 I feel are best closers, 1,2,6 in exactas. Race 7- No strong opinion other than I’m looking forward to seeing Guarana. I do think Queen of Beas is better than her last and expect a good effort from her. I will be surprised if Serengeti Empress wins though as this race seems wrong for her, but kudos to them for running. Race 8-I LOVE Much Better in here and will try and get through pick 4 with 1,2. Last is a toss and the fact he’s here after doing no running at all is a major plus to me. Blinkers off is a strong angle for Baffert and I think Smith has him out rolling early. Honest Mischief could be any kind and is very scary. Race 9- Firenze Fire clearly loves Belmont and will be in the catbird seat behind the speed. Is he as good as McKinzie or Mitole? I’m not sure but his Belmont races match up well with theirs. 2,3,7 in pick 4. Race 10- 1,3,4,8 in the pick 4. No real preference, but I’d obviously prefer the longer the better odds wise in the pick 4. Race 11- Not sure how but I’ve landed on Spinoff. The races from Louisiana were strong and his LA Derby has held up. His 3 year old debut was strong and I think the Derby is a throwout. Pletcher knows how to win this race and should be in a good spot. Distance is big question mark. Also using War of Will and Tacitus in pick 4. Good Luck!
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#3
06-08-2019, 11:03 AM
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#4
06-08-2019, 12:40 PM
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Hope Outshine can get this done and then we can beat some chalk...won't be easy particularly on the second portion but we'll see...
The Woody Stephens: Thanks for the push on Much Better who I kind of similarly really liked but kept waffling on. Respect the opinion enough to move him in as an A along with my main two: Honest Mischief (who I think will go favored, even over Mind Control, we'll see) and Wendell Fong. I think WF is sneaky in here, this horse is game as you like and although maybe he's a bit slow for these he really had to earn that victory at Laurel and I think he won in spite of the slop not because of it last time...if things heat up on the front, and I think they will, maybe he comes calling late. I get his credentials but for better or worse I'm just way against Mind Control and everyone else can beat me. The Met: Tricky race in the sense that outside Tale of Silence there are things to like about everyone, but it could very well just be that McKinzie is the best and the winner...reminds me a bit of the year Palace Malice won...that said I neither trust nor would ever toss Firenze Fire who, if he fires a big one might be the most likely to beat the good McKinzie. Perhaps I'm way off but I just don't like Mitole at all here. He's going to have to stretch out to yet another panel and I just don't think he's as likely a winner as the price indicates. Coal Front, McKinzie, Firenze and Prince Lucky are all preferences and I think even Thunder Snow is as likely....incredibly tough race I'm still looking to finalize A/B/C structure. Manhattan: Bricks and Mortar has won me over for sure but I basically have a contract with Robert Bruce who I still believe should've won this race last year. His excuses since are well documented and I just think he's a very logical alternative. I want Olympico more than Raging Bull in here and tose are my main three. If I can narrow the Met more maybe I can get the 4,5 and 9 in as backups. Belmont: I get that he's an underlay at his odds with the figures and expected price, etc but I just think he is far and away the most likely winner in here. He basically has every factor I would want in his favor and I think his trip in the Kentucky Derby is (actually) being severely underrated by most. Things just really did not work out for him in there and though it was subtle he really took the worst of it/never really getting a chance to run until it was too late. Spinoff and Sir Winston are my other two. I can't add much that others haven't but I really thought Sir Winston was motoring, not just passing tired horses, in the PP and I'm so much more inspired by his run there than the Everfast/Master Fencer runs that I'll key him in all the slots of the tri and super with confidence that Rosario will find a way to hit the board. 12th: I liked Mr Maybe's return and ideally would use all of the 3,4 and 7...tough race though Brooklyn: I like too many in here but I think I've decided to try to beat You're to Blame which puts me on Marconi, Campaign, War Story and Rocketry and I've had a very hard time separating those four.
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