1/24: Oaklawn ~ Opening Day (5th-9th)

[Kasept]

OAKLAWN ~ OPENING DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Giant Pulpit 12-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Red Clay Magic 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Lewys Vaporizer 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #3 Giddymeister 7-2 9th


6th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Yeesh.. Slowish-looking MDN group going 2 turns while presenting a murky pace scenario. 7-2 second choice Ahsad (Shadwell/Peitz) exits 3 key races on turf, fast and slop earning field's best figures while being soundly beaten. Chet Thomas/Bret Calhoun City Zip colt Ready to Roll (6-1) may benefit from the move to 2 turns and should be out front from the break with Stewie Elliott who boasts a gaudy 10 for 26 (38%; $3.52) mark with the barn. Selleck, a half to Caleb's Posse, adds hood and stretches out for Joe Petalino. D. Wayne has a chance to win on opening day for the Zayat receivers with Lido Legacy. Instigated goes out for M & M & 38% 1st/claim Norm McKnight. Descent is a half to SW Pretty n Cool for Winchell/Horton & Asmussen..

Best Value: #3 Ready to Roll 6-1 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #2 Ahsad 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Lido Legacy 3-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Instigated 8-1 2nd


7th: OC/N$Y, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Deep and wildly competitive group made extra intriguing by the presence of new Oaklawn residents Sadler (Horse Greedy) and Hollendorfer (Awesome Anywhere), as well as Asmussen/Brewster KEE/NOV buy ($47k) Nero, a $950k Coolmore/Stonestreet yearling last seen running 3rd in the Triple Bend for Baffert..

Best Value: #1 Silver Ride 10-1 WON ($35.60)
Next Best: #7 Awesome Anywhere 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Nero 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Gordy Florida 8-1 3rd


8th: Smarty Jones, 3yo, 1m (DD)

With 4 of these 9 stretching out off of sprints, pace has to be honest at the least, giving stalker-closer types their chance. Note that 'first finish line' (16th pole) is in play, so there isn't a great deal of stretch to navigate. Though winless, Cox-Godolphin mid-pack type Shared Sense ran into some of KY's nicest 2yo's last year including Liam's Map & Silver Prospector and was further flattered by Blackberry's Wine's 94 Beyer ALW win Saturday at Fairgrounds. Working at OP, adds Geroux to equation and 12-1 to start the bidding..

Best Value: #3 Shared Sense 12-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Silver Prospector 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Shoplifted 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Lynn's Map 6-1 6th


9th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f

Most Likely: #4 Black Kat Taps 5-2 5th
Best Value: #9 Moorac 15-1 10th
Next Best: #12 Kiss the Girl 8-5 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Cherokee Chatter 10-1 8th


P5 Grid:

5: 5-9 (A), 2-3 (B), 1-7 (C)
6: 2-3 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
7: 1-2-7 (A), - (B), 8-11 (C)
8: 2-3 (A), 7 (B), 6-8-9 (C)
9: 4-9 (A), - (B), 6-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x2x2 =48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

6: 2-3 (A), 4-7 (B), 6 (C)
7: 1-2-7 (A), - (B), 8-11 (C)
8: 2-3 (A), 7-8 (B), 4-6-9 (C)
9: 4-9-12 (A), - (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3 =36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[moses]

Thanks and good luck Steve. It looks like a pretty nice field for the Smarty Jones.

One thing I find interesting (and maybe it isn’t that interesting at all) is that Gaffalione who normally rides Casse’s top horses isn’t listed for Lynn’s Map, even though he has ridden him before. When Lynn’s Map was entered in the Lecomte, Mena was listed, I assume because Gaffalione was at Gulfstream with Casse. Casse has kept Mena on Lynn’s Map. Not every trainer would do that.

[Alabama Stakes]

I was wondering about the Three Technique hoss. He’s trained by Engleheart, but has been training at hot springs. Is he in New York and someone else has him in their barn there, or did he go there ?

[Kasept]

OP SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Thanks and good luck Steve. It looks like a pretty nice field for the Smarty Jones.

One thing I find interesting (and maybe it isn’t that interesting at all) is that Gaffalione who normally rides Casse’s top horses isn’t listed for Lynn’s Map, even though he has ridden him before. When Lynn’s Map was entered in the Lecomte, Mena was listed, I assume because Gaffalione was at Gulfstream with Casse. Casse has kept Mena on Lynn’s Map. Not every trainer would do that.

Casse has used Mena for a long time going back to their Foster win together with Pool Play.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I was wondering about the Three Technique hoss. He’s trained by Engleheart, but has been training at hot springs. Is he in New York and someone else has him in their barn there, or did he go there ?

Sent an assistant there with 15-16 horses.

[casp0555]

dude, you are on fire

[moses]

Great call there Steve. I ALMOST put the #1 Silver Ride in my bet because of you...but I didn’t because I’m an idiot.

Nice pick these last two races.

[asudevil]

Um, Boom

[Kasept]

Billy.. Moishe.. Howard..

THX. Considering how the track was yesterday, Silver Ride was a mile the best. Nice way to start the meet. Hope everyone got something! BIG day today. Let's get lucky!

[fantini33]

Boy, now that is what a rail bias looks like. IMO.

Taking a long time to get notes into Timeform going through these replays. Gonna be lots of playbacks. I'm giddy.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Boy, now that is what a rail bias looks like. IMO.

Taking a long time to get notes into Timeform going through these replays. Gonna be lots of playbacks. I'm giddy.

Hopefully for anyone playing against you these horses DON’T run back in 2 weeks.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Boy, now that is what a rail bias looks like. IMO.

Taking a long time to get notes into Timeform going through these replays. Gonna be lots of playbacks. I'm giddy.

Originally Posted by jms62

Hopefully for anyone playing against you these horses DON’T run back in 2 weeks.

[fantini33]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Boy, now that is what a rail bias looks like. IMO.

Taking a long time to get notes into Timeform going through these replays. Gonna be lots of playbacks. I'm giddy.

From Thursday 2/6-Sunday 2/9 there were 33 runners that came back from opening weekend, where the rail was SOLID GOLD on 1/24, GOLD on 1/25, and quite nice on 1/26. Of the 33, 5 were play against since they spent the majority of the race on the rail. None won. All but one definitely regressed. 28 were either neutral-ish or dead against the bias. 9 winners, 7 places, 7 shows. There are a few overlaps in the which ended up as exactas and even triples otherwise win total may be higher. Winners included 4-1, 20-1, 4-1, 27-1, 7-1, 7-1. Places included 10-1, 8-1, 11-1, 6-1. Shows included 5-1, 4-1, 15-1, 14-1. These horses are there for the taking and there are a bunch coming back in the next few days. Watch the replays from those initial 3 days and if the tried to close wide upgrade a ton. if they rode rail, play against.

Best of luck!

[moses]

Originally Posted by fantini33

From Thursday 2/6-Sunday 2/9 there were 33 runners that came back from opening weekend, where the rail was SOLID GOLD on 1/24, GOLD on 1/25, and quite nice on 1/26. Of the 33, 5 were play against since they spent the majority of the race on the rail. None won. All but one definitely regressed. 28 were either neutral-ish or dead against the bias. 9 winners, 7 places, 7 shows. There are a few overlaps in the which ended up as exactas and even triples otherwise win total may be higher. Winners included 4-1, 20-1, 4-1, 27-1, 7-1, 7-1. Places included 10-1, 8-1, 11-1, 6-1. Shows included 5-1, 4-1, 15-1, 14-1. These horses are there for the taking and there are a bunch coming back in the next few days. Watch the replays from those initial 3 days and if the tried to close wide upgrade a ton. if they rode rail, play against.

Best of luck!

Good call. I’ll keep an eye out. I’ll have to re-watch but looks like Lynn’s Map may have fallen victim to the bias.

[Alabama Stakes]

Good info Fantini. Thanks.

[moses]

Was really great hearing from fantini today. There are a bunch of these horses running this weekend. Great tip. Hopefully some bombs come out. Good luck all.

[fantini33]

[moses]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Have Dapper Jack there? $99 trifecta but I had Chicory Blue on top.

[fantini33]

I preferred Chickory Blue as well but its to the point that I just use them all in multirace bets. I just used the both in exactas weighted more towards the 6. I know the boss liked the 5.