7/16: Nick Tammaro's Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

[Kasept]

SARATOGA – 7/16/2020
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

Race 1-

1st #2 GRIT AND GLORY
2ND #7 GUY CABALLERO
3RD #1 CASTLE CASANOVA

#2 GRIT AND GLORY goes first off a claim for the 2009 Saratoga meet leading trainer and Linda Rice is 33% with dirt routers first off of claims over the last 5 years ($2.14 ROI). This gelding was close to a wicked pace that completely collapsed last time out and should get an ideal stalking trip today. #7 GUY CABALLERO is the horse to beat on paper, but he returns off a layoff after multiple starts for high percentage barns in Florida. It is not easy to move up off the likes of those trainers, and you’ll have to swallow a short price. #1 CASTLE CASANOVA is a pace threat at the least given his cozy inside post on the stretchout. The big class drop is a cause for pause, but he has done enough on the racetrack in the past to be given a long look.

Race 2-

1st #7 MAGIC MOJO
2ND #8 MUTAKAAMIL
3RD #1 LEADING WEST

#7 MAGIC MOJO earned valuable experience in debut spin that began with trouble from the gate. He recovered to make a move around the turn before flattening out and now faces softer at a distance that suits him better for a barn that does well with 2nd time starting maidens (5-29 last 5 years, $5.06 ROI). #8 MUTAKAAMIL is not bred for turf but is the most accomplished runner in the field and hails from the mighty Chad Brown barn. This stable is 5 for its last 15 with first time turfers in maiden claiming races that have started before ($3.25 ROI). #1 LEADING WEST goes 3rd off the bench after narrowly missing down in Florida. The blinkers go on seemingly to help him seal the deal, and he will be well backed at the windows with a top pilot astride.

Race 3-

1st #4 GLASS CEILING
2ND #2 FIGURE OF SPEECH
3RD #3 PALACE AVENGER

#4 GLASS CEILING gets needed class relief and a cutback in distance for a high percentage barn. This filly’s win two back, albeit in an off the turf event, is good enough to win here and she should get a solid pace to run at late with two speedsters on either side of her leaving the gate. #2 FIGURE OF SPEECH likely needed her last and now returns to the site of her handy debut score. The dirt racing at Churchill was extremely competitive at the recently concluded meet, and this gal faces far softer here. The winner of her last start was a good 2nd in last week’s Beaumont at Keeneland. #3 PALACE AVENGER is the main speed and she also exits a salty allowance tilt in Louisville. This gal is quick enough to get clear and has some affinity for this oval given last year’s runner-up finish in August.

Race 4-

1st #2 YES TO MISCHIEF
2ND #6 THRILL
3RD #3 DIAL ME UP

#2 YES TO MISCHIEF has a solid pedigree being by 16% debut sire Into Mischief and worked a furlong in :10 at the OBS March 2019 sale. She hails from a barn with good numbers debuting 3YO and up on dirt, but Mark Casse is specifically 3 for his last 5 in that category in NY ($7.00 ROI). #6 THRILL is strictly the one to beat based on her strong late move in her debut. She now switches surfaces for a barn having a banner 2020 and the outside post should enable her to stalk and pounce. #3 DIAL ME UP returns from a layoff and gets lasix for Christophe Clement. She had plenty of speed in her debut and should be forwardly placed again.

Race 5-

1ST #7 THORNY TALE
2ND #4 BIG ENGINE
3RD #3 KAZMANIA

#7 THORNY TALE exits a career best win in early June and has been given ample time to take the natural class jump. He drew perfectly to stalk the pace and pounce when ready, as there are two confirmed speedsters to his inside. Given the run his trainer has had in 2020, handle everything from this stable with care. #4 BIG ENGINE returns from a break and is a late runner in position to capitalize on what should be a hot pace. He came into his own after being claimed from Jason Servis, a rarity in racing, and he nearly overcame a very slow pace to win when last seen in January. #3 KAZMANIA narrowly missed when rolling a tad too late last time out downstate. He’s another with the right running style for this heat, and his human connections will never garner him a great deal of support at the windows. That helps his price.



Race 6-

1st #6 NO BAD DAYS
2ND #9 PROPENSITY
3RD #8 SPITBALL

#6 NO BAD DAYS set a blistering pace in his turf debut last year and now returns to the weeds. He showed speed last time out before fading and has proven since that August spin that he is not a dirt horse. The presence of Joel Rosario in a very soft 40k event makes him appealing at a good price. #9 PROPENSITY was in range last time out before being virtually eased in mid-stretch. Perhaps he wasn’t handling the rain-softened course, but the drop in class does little to inspire confidence. Respect him enough to use in the Pick 5. #8 SPITBALL is the horse to beat given the improvement shown in his first turf try. He is the one to catch again today, and any improvement 2nd off the brief break will make him tough to beat.

Race 7-

1st #9 SUMMER AT THE SPA
2ND #1 ASTORIA KITTEN
3RD #7 GIACOSA

#9 SUMMER AT THE SPA made the only meaningful off the pace move last time out when second at 5-1 in her first try for Jonathan Thomas. She now goes 2nd off the bench in a race with confirmed speed. The only negative is an outside post on the inner turf course. #1 ASTORIA KITTEN is the one to catch from the inside and is a threat to go the distance if she is left unchallenged by #8 PANDAMOM. This daughter of Kitten’s Joy was out finished by the top pick last time after setting the pace and is rounding into top form for a high percentage conditioner. #7 GIACOSA is a longshot worth using underneath given her trainer’s success at this meet. Jimmy Bond is 20% with turf routers at the Spa over the last 5 years ($3.00 ROI) and this gal has clearly improved as a 3 year-old. #4 MINIT MAUS gets a look as an underneath play too given the wide trip last time.

Race 8-

1st #6 QUEEN ARELLA
2ND #3 BEAUTIFUL MEMORIES
3RD #4 QUINOA TIFAH

#6 QUEEN ARELLA had nothing go her way at the beginning of her debut, then exploded around the far turn to win going away. The runner-up came right back to win and is entered here, and this filly has since RNA’d at the Keeneland June sale for 475k. The fact she can win from off the pace is a major feather in her cap. #3 BEAUTIFUL MEMORIES was extremely impressive on debut drawing away late to beat a MSW field under the twin spires into submission. She is a pace player from the inside again and has a world of upside. #4 QUINOA TIFAH wore down a rival to break her maiden at first asking in April and now returns from a 90 day respite. She looks to be training forwardly and is another who can rate, which is important in early season 2YO races.

Race 9-

1st #7 CARACARO
2ND #2 COUNTRY GRAMMER
3RD #6 MYSTIC GUIDE

The interesting price play is #7 CARACARO given the likely support for #6 MYSTIC GUIDE and others. The Floridian returns from a layoff for the barn that locally won the 2016 Test and excels with layoff types. This colt was impressive in a smashing win at Gulfstream back in January and has the speed to be involved from the start. Nothing about the added distance causes concern. #2 COUNTRY GRAMMER was wide and off the pace when Tap It to Win exploded to wire that N1X in early June. He will appreciate the return to a two-turn configuration and is a threat if the pace heats up. The aforementioned Mystic Guide was second at 8/5 in the N1X won by Tap It to Win. He was along for second and finished with interest, but there wasn’t an appreciable move forward off his eye-catching maiden score. Perhaps the second turn will help.

Race 10-

1st #8 SUMMER FORTUNE
2ND #6 ALLEY TO CALVARY
3RD #2 DOLL

#8 SUMMER FORTUNE is the one to catch on the drop in for a tag for trainer Jeremiah Englehart. Violence has proven to be a good turf influence and there are 4 grass winners in the dam side pedigree. Look for her to come out swinging. #6 ALLEY TO CALVARY has a major excuse for her poor effort sprinting here last year and now returns to what should be her best distance. The presence of Joel Rosario is a major positive and the top pick is sure to set a strong pace. #2 DOLL is one of the biggest money burners on this circuit and she found a way to lose last time once again when seemingly on her way to the winner’s circle. She is drawn favorably to get an ideal stalking trip. What she does with it remains to be seen!

FINAL BELMONT MEET STATS: 247-63-41-30 $365.60