September 5 CD Kentucky Derby ROI Wagers go here

[DonGuido]

Yes, it's finally here and we all have the expanded $200 bank roll to "throw away" lest Cruzan nails a couple zingers again . . . "Only the Shadow Knows". It will a fun packed thrilling race day ending with the "Grand Daddy" of them all.

Enjoy the day. And Remember if you like, play the Oaks-Derby Double as one of you wagers. Oaks-Derby wagers must be posted by 5:45 ET Friday to be accepted.

[Roamin42]

$20 OAKS/ DERBY DOUBLE

R12 Oaks-#5 Gamin

R14 Derby-#16 Honor A P

[Roamin42]

RACE 14
$15.00 Exacta Box-#16 Honor A P/ #17 Tiz The Law

Race 14
$100 WIN/ $50 Place--#16 Honor A P

$150+$30+ $20= $200

[cruzan200246]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Yes, it's finally here and we all have the expanded $200 bank roll to "throw away" lest Cruzan nails a couple zingers again . . . "Only the Shadow Knows". It will a fun packed thrilling race day ending with the "Grand Daddy" of them all.

Enjoy the day. And Remember if you like, play the Oaks-Derby Double as one of you wagers. Oaks-Derby wagers must be posted by 5:45 ET Friday to be accepted.

i'M GONNA TRY REPEATING THOSE FEATS AGAIN

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Roamin42

RACE 14
$15.00 Exacta Box- #14-#1 Finnick The Fierce/ #17 Tiz The Law

Race 14
$100 WIN/ $50 Place

$150+$30+ $20= $200

Not sure why, but it looks like Finnick is out. Just read it over on another forum. Sorry, he didn't stay in. I was anxious to see whether you were right or not. Looks like I missed the mark big time on his odds. Early betting had him at 35-1 which would still have been a great return.

[RUFFIAN]

LOUISVILLE, KY (Friday, Sept. 4, 2020) –

Arnaldo Monge and trainer Rey Hernandez’s Finnick the Fierce
was declared out of Saturday’s 146th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby
Presented by Woodford Reserve (GI) by his co-owners.

[Roamin42]

Cal828, thanks for the info, had high hopes. Gonna check it out on Bloodhorse. Back to the drawing board now. Good luck on your choices.

[Roamin42]

The one-eyed gelding Finnick the Fierce has been scratched from Saturday's Kentucky Derby, leaving an expected field of 16 starters.

Veterinarian Arnaldo Monge, who owns Finnick the Fierce with trainer Rey Hernandez, said that the gelding typically "carries himself a little funny," and that this week official veterinarians had been keeping a close eye on the horse. Finnick the Fierce lost his right eye as a foal.


Got this from DRF.

[cal828]

Advanced wagering indicates:

Tiz 1/1
Honor AP 8-1
Authentic 9-1
Thousand Words 10-1
Money Moves 14-1
Max Player 15-1
NY Traffic 17-1
All Others between 20 and 50-1

Longshot players rejoice. You should get some juicy odds indeed.

I haven't decided whether to play the Derby or not, but seems unsportsman like not to.

[RUFFIAN]

Thousand Words 10-1

There goes my Bet down the proverbial drain
Those who know my format know I do not bet 10 - 1

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Roamin42

The one-eyed gelding Finnick the Fierce has been scratched from Saturday's Kentucky Derby, leaving an expected field of 16 starters.

Veterinarian Arnaldo Monge, who owns Finnick the Fierce with trainer Rey Hernandez, said that the gelding typically "carries himself a little funny," and that this week official veterinarians had been keeping a close eye on the horse. Finnick the Fierce lost his right eye as a foal.


Go this from DRF.

I actually liked him, but him being in the inside post would have been worrisome. I think his daddy was Dialed In, another very deep closer. I bet him the year that Animal Kingdom won. Dialed in finished last, but I wasn't the amazing handicapper I am now.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by RUFFIAN-333

Thousand Words 10-1

There goes my Bet down the proverbial drain
Those who know my format know I do not bet 10 - 1

It's very early and who knows how they will end up. Still lots of time for that one to go up in odds. Personally, I don't like him anyway, but he is trained by the GOAT so who knows? May mow'em all down.

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by cal828

Advanced wagering indicates:

Tiz 1/1
Honor AP 8-1
Authentic 9-1
Thousand Words 10-1
Money Moves 14-1
Max Player 15-1
NY Traffic 17-1
All Others between 20 and 50-1

Longshot players rejoice. You should get some juicy odds indeed.

I haven't decided whether to play the Derby or not, but seems unsportsman like not to.

I'm a little surprised at the amount of support for Money Moves. That's a substantial drop in the odds for such an inexperienced horse. He's making his stakes debut, whereas many with much higher odds are graded stakes winners. Perhaps it the Pletcher/Castellano connection.

The others you listed kind of make sense, but as you say it's early. Both Max and NY were too high in the ML, as least in my opinion.

[cal828]

^^^
Money Moves could be the "wiseguy" horse. I like Max and New York, but Max being closer to the rail is worrisome. Some pluses and minuses about him. Shown he can get the distance and "honest," as they say. If I play, both of those will be underneath in my deeper exotics. I have my doubts about both Bafferts, but as we all know, that can be hazardous to your wallet.

[JolyB]

I've also got my doubts about both of the Bafferts and don't know what to do with them. For actual wagers, I am avoiding both the win and exacta pools, since I don't see value for the horses I like in either of them. I am trying to put together a trifecta array and think it could be profitable even though it will have a lot of Tiz on top and a little in the second slot "just in case". I can see a scenario on the latter ticket where Thousand Words could be on top [same could be said for Honor AP], but I am against Authentic in the win slot. My perception of the Haskell was that he was at the end of his distance limits to get the 1 1/8 and I don't see him getting the extra distance, especially if someone else decides to contest what will probably be a faster pace. If he beats me, well I've been wrong before and will be again. So, I'll be using Authentic underneath, as well as Max and NY at least in the bottom rung. I'm struggling to find another in whom I have any strong feelings about passing tired horses and ending up in the third slot. Once you get beyond the top tier, so many of the rest of these look very much alike.

Isn't this fun?

[cal828]

I think the thing that makes it so hard for me is that it's generally not a race that a closer wins, but that doesn't mean they can't run second or third and they often do at big odds so your list of must includes seems to get longer and longer and you know all along you are including horses that are probably hopeless.

[Real Quiet]

Saturday

Race 6 20 cent superfecta
5-6-7-9-11
5-6-7-9-11
5-6-7-9-11
2-5-6-7-8-9-11-12 ($60)

Race 10 $20 ex key 2 w 1-7-9 ($60)

Race 14 $80 Win 18 ($80)

[RUFFIAN]

WITH A 'THOUSAND WORDS' TOO LOW
OTHER NAMES NOW SPRING TO MIND
WHAT'S IN A NAME RULES MY HEART
WILL DERBY DAY FOR ME, BE KIND?
===================================

RACE 4
#6 = $30 WIN {XIETELEHAUS}

#9 = $20 WIN { ME WE }
=============================

RACE 5
#12 = $26 WIN {LAST CHANCE AT GLORY}

#9 = $24 WIN { STAGE READY}
========================================

RACE 7
#1 = $30 WIN {AWARD WINNER}

#2 = $30 WIN {ALL WEST}
=========================================

RACE 14 ~ THE BIG DANCE

CAN THEY BEAT THE FAVORITE
WE JUST WAIT AND SEE
CAN A LONGSHOT COME THRU
AND WIN A BET FOR ME
{PROBABLY NOT }

#3 = $20 WIN {ENFORCEABLE}

#12 = $20 WIN {SOLE VOLANTE}
=============================================
=============================================

CHURCHILL COLOSSAL CATNIP FOR THE 'QUIET ONE'
==============================================

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by cal828

I think the thing that makes it so hard for me is that it's generally not a race that a closer wins, but that doesn't mean they can't run second or third and they often do at big odds so your list of must includes seems to get longer and longer and you know all along you are including horses that are probably hopeless.

I've looked at both Enforceable and Sole Volante as horses that fit that description to a T.

[cal828]

Right, I agree and maybe South Bend too. What to make of his trip in the Travers? Notation says "brushed the gate" which sounds innocuous enough, but he absolutely slammed into it. If slamming into other horses can cause them to lose races then slamming into cold steel can't help either, but then after the start he gets an easy inside trip and Max Player who also ran at the back of the pack, beats him by 2 lengths even though he had an outside trip.