3/27 (GP): Florida Derby (G1) Day

[ninetoone]

I don't post my picks often (probably for a reason) but I'll be putting a decent win bet on Collaborate. I like the potential upside and I think some of the others in the field are distractors. I don't think he necessarily needs the lead to win. I'd be happy to get the morning line, but I expect a bit less...

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

I don't post my picks often (probably for a reason) but I'll be putting a decent win bet on Collaborate. I like the potential upside and I think some of the others in the field are distractors. I don't think he necessarily needs the lead to win. I'd be happy to get the morning line, but I expect a bit less...

hmmm 1st time route and 1st time winners, I have seen many like this go down, I don't like Favorites , But GH looks like the real deal, and I love when a horse has matching beyers, next race is usually a monster. Ill try and hit a 20 exacta and 20 triple with GH on top....

[King Glorious]

I have no opinion.

[Alabama Stakes]

I heard they scraped the rail. Inside speed could be the way to go.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I heard they scraped the rail. Inside speed could be the way to go.

LOL

The voices in your big dumb head told you?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by robfla

ML is 9/2 on I Get It in Race 3: The Sanibel Isl. Stakes? Be lucky to get 2:1. I think she lays over this field.

Well we got 5/2

[moses]

I’m glad I posed the question on Known Agenda as I ended up off of Spielberg and on Known Agenda...only to turn around and ultimately decide to single Greatest Honour in my horizontal wagers.

Good job to anyone who ended up on him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

This is a race to sit back and watch Greatness happen right in front of you. Greatest Honour is the real deal

Or not

[cakes44]

Funny that there was only 11 horses in the FD, but 3 of them were more than 160-1, and another was 85-1.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I heard they scraped the rail. Inside speed could be the way to go.

Might want to stop listening to whoever told you this.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

I don't post my picks often (probably for a reason) but I'll be putting a decent win bet on Collaborate. I like the potential upside and I think some of the others in the field are distractors. I don't think he necessarily needs the lead to win. I'd be happy to get the morning line, but I expect a bit less...

When I identify a bad favorite and land on a horse ridden by someone other than Irad Ortiz, my record is not good. In these scenarios (big races), I'm not sure what my ROI would be if I had just blindly bet Irad instead, but it would be much higher. This one especially stings because the hype around Collaborate actually helped him (Irad) go off at good/fair odds, which is pretty rare. From a gambling perspective, normally I'd have been all over Known Agenda, but ironically I think my pride got in the way a little bit posting my opinion in advance. Obviously I realize it's mostly about the horse, but I just can't ignore this scenario....and Irad is definitely my guy. I had a bad feeling before the race started that he was going to get me. I did catch him/Pletcher on a pretty big win bet in the BCC Classic on Vino Rosso a couple years ago though in this scenario! This should have been another....I blew it!

I used to employ this same strategy with Ramon back in the day. It was rare to get him at good/fair odds too. Occasionally though, he would get ignored. His win on Better Talk Now in the Breeder's Cup Turf over Kitten's Joy was probably my 2nd happiest moment ever as a gambler, behind Pleasantly Perfect's win in the BCC at 14-1....(that was Solis)