5/6: Churchill Downs ~ 148th Kentucky Oaks Day

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 148TH KENTUCKY OAKS DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N12X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

What a fun start to the weekend with a super competitive group of fillies and mares with several live price candidates..

Most Likely: #5 Park On the Nile 10-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Skratch Kat 15-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Imogene Malvina 9-2 WON ($18.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Idiomatic 4-1 3rd


2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Inventing 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #10 Misread 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #12 Olga Isabel 12-1 WON ($22.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Blamethechampagne 6-1 7th


3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Red Hornet 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Grael Gate SCR
Best Value: #4 Myopic 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1e West Point entry 7-5 4th/5th


4th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Juju's Map 1-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #5 Semble Juste 10-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Illiogami 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Family Time 12-1 5th


5th: Modesty (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Bleecker Street 9-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #4 She Can't Sing 8-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Fluffy Socks 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Hendy Woods 5-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

1: 2-3-4-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 3-4-7/SCR (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple: 5x2x3x1x3 = 90 x .50 = $45


P4 Grid:

2: 10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 3-4-7/SCR (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple: 2x3x1x3 = 18 x $2 = $36


6th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f ($2-2 day P6, .20 Derby City P6, P3, DD))

Most Likely: #2 Shedaresthedevil 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #6 Pauline's Pearl 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Battle Bling 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Jilted Bride 6-1 6th


$2 Fri/Sat P6 Grid:

FRI 6: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
FRI 11: 4-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 8: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 10: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 11: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 12: 7-13-15-16 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x3x2x1x2x4 = 72 x $2 = $192


7th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (Oaks All Stake P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Olympiad 9-5 ($3.80)
Best Value: #2 Weyburn 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Happy Saver 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Fulsome 8-1 6th


P5 Grid:

3: 3-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-4-8 (A), 2-6-7 (B), - (C)
6: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 5 (A), - (B), 2 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x6x2x1 = $36
All A's: 3x1x3x2x1 = $18
Backup (2 in 7th): 3x1x3x2x1 = 18 x .50 = $9


P4 Grid:

4: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-4-8 (A), 2-6-7 (B), - (C)
6: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 5 (A), - (B), 2 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x2x1 = 12 x $3 = $36
All A's: 1x3x2x1 = 6 x $2 = $12
Backup (2 in 7th): 1x3x2x1 = $6

$0.50 Pick 4 (7/8/6/3,5) Paid $13.85 x 6 = $83.10


8th: Edgewood (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Oaks All Stake P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Dolce Zel 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Kneesnhips 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 McKulick 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Spicer 3-1 9th


9th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Gerrymander 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Matareya 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Awake At Midnyte 15-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Ain't Easy 12-1 8th


10th: Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Deep, difficult group..

Most Likely: #8 Gear Jockey 5-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Pyron 6-1 13th
Exotics Use: #3 Caravel 5-1 6th
Super Add: #2 The Lir Jet 12-1 11th


11th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks/Turf Classic/Derby P3, Oaks/Derby DBL, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Desert Dawn 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Kathleen O. 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Nest 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #11 Cocktail Moments 30-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #2 Nostalgic 15-1 10th


P5 Grid:

7: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-5 (A), 3-8 (B), 2-9 (C)
9: 6-8-9 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C)
10: 3-8-9 (A), - (B), 1-2-11 (C)
11: 4-9-10 (A), - (B), 2-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x5x3x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 1x2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27
Backups: $27 (2-9 in 8th) + $27 (1-2-11 in 10th) + $18 (2-11 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

8: 4-5 (A), 3-8 (B), 2-9 (C)
9: 6-8-9 (A), - (B), 3-4 (C)
10: 3-8-9 (A), - (B), 1-2-11 (C)
11: 4-9-10 (A), - (B), 2-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27
Backups: $27 (2-9 in 8th) + $27 (1-2-11 in 10th) + $18 (2-11 in 11th)


Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid:

Oaks: 4-9-10 (A), - (B), 2-7-11 (C)
Turf: 1-6 (A), 8-19.800 (B), - (C)
Derby: 7-13-15-16 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x6 = $72
All A's: 3x2x4 = $24


Oaks-Derby DBL Grid:

Oaks: 4-9-10 (A), - (B), 2-7-11 (C)
Derby: 7-13-15-16 (A), 3-10, - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6 = 18 x $4 = $72
All A's: 3x4 = 12 x $2 = $24
Backup: 3x4 = 12 x $2 = $24


12th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f (DD)

Come for the Oaks and undercard stakes.. Stay for this eye-popping first level ALW stacked with impressive first out winners, seasonal debuters and stakes-experienced droppers..

Best Value: #4 Society 8-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #9 Wish You Well 9-5 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Ontheonesandtwos 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Angitude 6-1 11th


13th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f

Best Value: #10 Merci Road 8-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Fabulous Fanny 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Milan's Girl 5-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Colorful Mischief 5-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

9: 6 (A), 8-9 (B), - (C)
10: 3-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 4-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 7-10 (A), - (B), 8-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x3x3x2 = 162 x .50 = $81
All A's: 1x3x3x3x2 = 54 x .50 = $27
Backup (8-12 in 13th): 1x3x3x3x2 = 54 x .50 = $27


P4 Grid:

10: 3-8-9 (A), - (B), 1-2-11 (C)
11: 4-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 4-9 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
13: 7-10 (A), 8-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (1-2-11 in 10th): 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[atolunch]

Thanks as always for your tireless efforts and the wealth of insights you provide. Let's get the Byk Train rolling hard this glorious wagering weekend.

Can you please check your 2 day wagers, you have the #7 listed twice for the Derby bets.

Best of luck this weekend, let's cash some tickets!!

[moses]

Good luck Steve. I have Simplification in the futures so I won’t mind if you’re right about him. I’ve been impressed by him in all of his prep races and he can definitely win if he can put it all together. If, for some reason, that 20/1 number floats up to the 35+ range, I will probably throw more money on him. I’m fascinated to see how the odds shape up.

[jwkniska]

Steve,

Thanks for all your hard work and for pointing out Desert Dawn. I'd have totally left off my ticket if it wasn't for you.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jwkniska

Steve,

Thanks for all your hard work and for pointing out Desert Dawn. I'd have totally left off my ticket if it wasn't for you.

Quite welcome.. Certainly can't complain about her effort and she made the tri/super sing. Hope many benefited by using her with the obvious players.

[jms62]

Nice work there yesterday.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

Nice work there yesterday.

THX Jim.. Too many miscues in the horizontals, but had a very pleasing day vertically with price opinions early and late. Hope you did well and let's crush today!