8/4: Saratoga (Day 16; Alydar)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MCLM/$50k, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Lady Quinn 4-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Acqua Bella 2-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Sicilian Grandma 5-1 WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #2 Girl Afraid 5-2 3rd


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Very interesting pedigreed affair with daughter of Biofuel (Pallotta Sisters), half to Vision Perfect (Gustiamo), daughter of fast Squeeze (Illicit) and more..

Most Likely: #5 Cowichan 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Private Credit 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Illicit 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Personal Pursuit SCR


3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Plenty of pace here and why is Boston Post Road going to necessarily withstand it?

Most Likely: #2 W W Fitzy 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Played Hard 2-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #1 Flashndynamite 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Boston Post Road 9-5 2nd


4th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Voice of Spring 5-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Alpine Queen 5-2 WON ($7.50)
Exotics Use: #7 Raffinity 5-1 4th
Super Add: #5 My Sweet Wife 7-2 3rd


5th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Mistical Curlin 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Sensible Jim 3-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Lefty's War 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 One More Baby 3-1 WON ($7.80)


P5 Grid:

1: 1-3 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
2: 2-5 (A), - (B), 9 (C)
3: 1-2-3 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
4: 1-6 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
5: 2 (A), - (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x4x1 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: $12 (9 in 2nd) + $4 (6 in 3rd) + $12 (3 in 5th)


P4 Grid:

2: 2-5 (A), 9 (B), - (C)
3: 1-2-3 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
4: 1-6 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
5: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: $4 (6 in 3rd)


6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-Inner (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

With addition of blinkers and the rail, Rosario could put Who Me on the point and not look back..

Best Value: #1 Who Me 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Lachaise 7-2 WON ($7.10)
Exotics Use: #9 Twirling Charlie 12-1 10th
Super Add: #8 New York Panther 5-2 6th


7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Bye Bye 3-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Always Late 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Spicy Marg 7-2 WON ($11.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Mail Order 7-2 4th


8th: Alydar-R, 4+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Mystic Night 5-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Masqueparade 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Art Collector 7-5 WON ($3.60)
Super Add: #2 Bal Harbour 6-1 5th


9th: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m-Inner (DD)

Terrific heat with seemingly 7 of the 9 interests possible for laurels. At 8-1, I made Buy Land and See the Depaula Play of the Day, but beyond the faves, Bye Bye Melvin (15-1), Emaraaty (6-1) and Big Everest (6-1) all worth considering in the pay slots..

Best Value: #6 Buy Land and See 8-1 6th ~ Depaula Play of the Day
Next Best: #5 Floriform 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Atone 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Bye Bye Melvin 15-1 4th


10th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T

Best Value: #6 O'Gotten Girl 8-1 -
Next Best: #4 Freedomofthepress 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Miss Domina 5-2 WON ($13.80)
Super Add: #2 Mandy Green 5-1 -


P5 Grid:

6: 1-7 (A), 8-9 (B), - (C)
7: 1-7 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
8: 1 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
9: 2-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: $36 (5-6 in 8th)


P4 Grid:

7: 1-7 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
8: 1 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
9: 2-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-6-7 (A), 2 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x3x4 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A's: 2x1x3x3 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup: $18 (5-6 in 8th)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

[Alabama Stakes]

Terrible 5/2 morning line on the last winner .

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Terrible 5/2 morning line on the last winner .

I would be interested in hearing the logic behind that statement. The winning horse was the 2nd choice on ML? Seems that the bettors are the ones that got it wrong in this instance.

[Kasept]

Was surprised she floated to that number.. David was too and acknowledged being off in a tweet, but after the SCR of the 10, that R Reposada took money (for some reason) and Miss Domina got lost on the board. Doesn't happen a lot here.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by jms62

I would be interested in hearing the logic behind that statement. The winning horse was the 2nd choice on ML? Seems that the bettors are the ones that got it wrong in this instance.

When was the last time a 5/2 morning line hoss opened at 15-1 and was double digits for a while after that ?

[Dahoss]

The guy is the best ML maker in the game by FAR. Like, it's not even close. He got one kind of wrong (the horse did win) and Dan has an issue with it.

Hilarious.

Freedomofthepress took way more money than he thought.

At the end of the day....who cares other than a guy who is 0 for the meet?

[Alabama Stakes]

He’s no Eric Donovan, but has improved. Best ? Says who ? The same shills that tell everyone the NYRA gate crew is the best ? Explain how the so called best gate crew gets the outside hoss in turf routes left at the gate most races ?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

He’s no Eric Donovan, but has improved. Best ? Says who ? The same shills that tell everyone the NYRA gate crew is the best ? Explain how the so called best gate crew gets the outside hoss in turf routes left at the gate most races ?

At some point you'd think you would get tired of embarrassing yourself.

https://twitter.com/thoreval/status/1543042318609125376

Since I know you're too stupid to understand what that guy did....he measured how accurate each track's ML is to the actual odds. 3 of the top 5 tracks in the country in terms of ML are done by Aragona including the top two.

If that isn't definitive proof as to just how good he is, I'm not sure what else you would require.

Maybe if you spent more time doing some handicapping work, and less time being an angry, jealous loser you wouldn't be ZERO for the meet.