5/11: Belmont at The Big A (4th-11th; X-C P5)

[Kasept]

BELMONT AT THE BIG A ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: Runhappy (G3), 4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Straight No Chaser has pace edge, but has been off a year. Joey Freshwater eligible to regress off career top. Ninetypercentmaddie (8-1) is in range and gets reunion with Irad who won the Carle Place with him..

Best Value: #4 Ninetypercentmaddie 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Joey Freshwater 9-5 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Straight No Chaser 1-1 4th


5th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 6f (X-C P5, P4, P3, DD)

Yeesh. Brutally tough start to the Cross Country P5..

Best Value: #9 Devil's Cay 8-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Power Attack 3-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Warrior Richard 12-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Kant Beat the Rock 8-1 3rd


Cross Country P5 Grid:

BAQ 5: 5-7-9-10 (A), 1-3-4-6-8 (B), - (C)
BAQ 6: 3-6-7-8 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
MTH 6: 4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
BAQ 7: 9 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
MTH 7: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 9x6x2x1x1 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 4x4x2x1x1 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backups (CAAAA + AAACA): 1x4x2x1x1 = 8 x .50 = $4 (4 in BAQ 5); 4x4x2x1x1 = 32 x .50 = $16 (1 in BAQ 7)


6th: Peter Pan (G3), 3yo, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

Even after SCR'g down to 6, (take out Lonesome Boy-Long Branch & Tuscan Gold-Preakness), this is a very well matched and tricky group. Deterministic, Protective, Antiquarian and The Wine Steward are stakes-savvy while Unique Insight and Native Land look poised to break through in their black type debuts..

Most Likely: #3 The Wine Steward 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Native Land 12-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Antiquarian 6-1 WON ($13.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Deterministic 5-1 5th


MONMOUTH 6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Battalion 4-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Gliding Afleet 3-1 7th
Best Value: #8 Eddie the Great 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Barleewon 6-1 6th


7th: Man O' War (G2), 4+, 11f-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD))

Appleby and the boys in blue coming off a lost weekend where Ottoman Fleet (Fort Marcy), Mischief Magic (T/S Turf Sprint), Legend of Time (American Turf) and Naval Power (Old Forester Turf Classic) all failed at 1-2, 3-1, 6-5 and 3-1. That noted, Nations Pride figures very tough here with Dettori and on a course with give. Shug's Ohana Honor, 4yo with upside, continues to go forward. So High will be a big number, but ran a career best when 3rd on this course in yielding condition in the Joe Hirsch last fall..

Most Likely: #9 Nations Pride 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Ohana Honor 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Silver Knott 3-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #3 So High 20-1 6th


MONMOUTH 7th: Long Branch, 3yo, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Heartened 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #6 Sea Streak 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Lonesome Boy 7-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Evening News 6-1 6th


8th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Grandilla 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Inflammabelle 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Mulkey 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Spirit of Esther 12-1 5th


Must Pay P5 Grid:

4: 1-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 7-9-10 (A), 5-6-8 (B), - (C)
6: 3-8 (A), 6-7 (B), 1-2 (C)
7: 9 (A), 1 (B), - (C)
8: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x2x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-2 in 6th)


P4 Grid:

5: 7-9-10 (A), 5-6-8 (B), - (C)
6: 3-8 (A), 6-7 (B), 1-2 (C)
7: 1-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (ACAA): 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (1-2 in 6th)


9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Ocean Atlantique 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 (POE) Belouni 8-5 2nd/7th ~ (Note other half of entry is quite OK, and a personal fave..)
Exotics Use: #3 Runningwscissors 5-1 WON ($12.80)
Super Add: #4 Dancin in Da'nile 10-1 5th


10th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (DD)

Best Value: #8 Patty Cakes 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Sweet Mystery 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Broderie 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Pitch Clock 5-2 8th


11th: NY-MCLM-$40k, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF/TURF

Most Likely: #1 Senderar 4th
Next Best: #16 Lucky and Gorgeous 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Rainingatthebeach 2nd
Super Add: #5 Once an Eagle 6th


P5 Grid:

7: 1-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-8 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
11: 1-16 (A), 5-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16


P4 Grid:

8: 2-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-8 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
11: 1-16 (A), 5-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

Races 2, 5, 7, 9 remain ON THE TURF with race 9 moved to inner turf at same distance. Race 11 is OFF THE TURF and will be run at one mile on the main track.

[Sethcarter]

Good luck Steve... Hope that Nashville is a great trip for you..

CC pk 5

1,3,5,7,9,10/3,7/1,4,9,/9/1,2,5,6,7: LOST


Bel pk 4 race 8-11

2,3,4,5,8/1/2,3,5,7,9/1,5,11,13,16

Gulf pk 3 races 5,8,10

1,2/5,9,12,/1,4,5,6,9,10,12

Gulf pk 4 7-10

3/3,5,9,12/2,3,4,6,7/1,4,5,6,9,10,12

[Sethcarter]

Originally Posted by Sethcarter

Good luck Steve... Hope that Nashville is a great trip for you..

CC pk 5

1,3,5,7,9,10/3,7/1,4,9,/9/1,2,5,6,7: LOST


Bel pk 4 race 8-11

2,3,4,5,8/1/2,3,5,7,9/1,5,11,13,16

Gulf pk 3 races 5,8,10

1,2/5,9,12,/1,4,5,6,9,10,12

Gulf pk 4 7-10

3/3,5,9,12/2,3,4,6,7/1,4,5,6,9,10,12

Crushed!!!!!!!