Santa Anita - Wed 2/14

[Rootdog1]

Looks like there could be some fireworks in the late pk4 tomorrow......anyone done some capping yet????

[gales0678]

I like Cambria Breeze in the last

[Scav]

I got sucked in by Gales and I actually need to thank him. I found a couple great plays in my opinion, in both turf races.....

Will play with $250 tomorrow on these two races, plays are below.

Race 3: 6.5 down the hill

Race is absolutely loaded with speed and that means death to them when they go sub 40 down the hill, I look for some serious closers to win this race. You have a horse like the 4 Sweet Travel that should do well in a race like this because she will be used to the slops and will most definitely be no where near the lead. Horse to watch is the 6 Lightmyfirebaby. Very strong number first out, very positive jock switch and at anywhere near 12/1, a very strong play. Should get a great trip here. The 9 Polar Kid looks like a horse that will probably want more ground, but been working well and at 30/1ML, worth throwing into an exacta box. Finally, 11 Flying Spy comes back for Sadler/Gomez after a good race off a minor layoff. Hard to not include Gomez on a horse that will get a good trip (the only track in the AMERICA where the outside is an advantage is down the hill at SA)

As far as my reasoning for not using the 7 Theverythoughtof U. I love Ellis as a trainer, think he does a great job, especially off a layoff, but when his horses run as huge as this one did, they tend to regress, and bad. Stats might not prove it but I have had some nice hits with tossing his horses after running as big as this one did first out. Will be overplayed and used on alot of tickets, the horse obviously has talent, but I am hoping he shows it next start.

Race 3
$2 exacta 9/4,6,11 $6
$3 exacta 4,6,11/9 $9
$15 exacta box 4,6,11 $90
$25 Win 6 $25
$20 Place 6 $20

Total: $150

Race 7

Quick and Easy, Japaneze....8 Dynamatic has been screaming for this stretchout and finally gets it, I love the addition of bleachers. Mig stays for the stretch out on a horse that has his last two races well spaced, it is go time tomorrow. Sherriffs is a very strong first router and it is impossible not to love his last five works with show a progression towards the strechout. Gomez/Frankel horse will HOPEFULLY keep this horses odds around 6/1 and it is fire time.

$100 Win 8

Total: $100

Total wagered: $250

[Rootdog1]

thanks for the detailed analysis Scavs, very nice....and I agree with you on Dynamatic but I would of liked to see her going 1 mile for her first two turn experience and then moving up to 9f, but she has the running style and breeding to love the distance. I am interested in the #1 Mabadi which is the Shulman GB import. Her race in Sept looks impressive and CNak takes the call. May need more ground but at 12-1 she is worth a play. Believe it or not, I also will use the #2 The King's Lass at 12-1 as well, as her last race at 1 mile is just too short for her and had a 3 wide/5 wide trip....and again 12-1. So I am using the 1,2,7,8. Not interested at all in White Aura and Fun Logic.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

thanks for the detailed analysis Scavs, very nice....and I agree with you on Dynamatic but I would of liked to see her going 1 mile for her first two turn experience and then moving up to 9f, but she has the running style and breeding to love the distance. I am interested in the #1 Mabadi which is the Shulman GB import. Her race in Sept looks impressive and CNak takes the call. May need more ground but at 12-1 she is worth a play. Believe it or not, I also will use the #2 The King's Lass at 12-1 as well, as her last race at 1 mile is just too short for her and had a 3 wide/5 wide trip....and again 12-1. So I am using the 1,2,7,8. Not interested at all in White Aura and Fun Logic.

I already put the 1 horse in my stable to bet next out, not a fan of shulman with this type of situation, he seems to throw them out there first out to see what he has, listens to jock and I play them back when the jock rides his horses back.....

[Rootdog1]

already have a pk3 sequence I like by sandwiching the 5th which i think could deliver a price....

4) 1,4
5) 9,10,11,12,14,15
6) 6
$12

4) 4
5) 9,10,11,12,14,15
6) 4,6
$12

Obviously will not be able to use all the above in the 5th for the pk4 but I am still working on the ticket. The 8th looks tough as well.

[Rootdog1]

Also, Shulman does only win at about an 11% clip with these shippers first time out, but has a fat +6.89 ROI on this move. Usually he brings them in off the plane runs them using the race more as a workout, but Mabadi does have 6 works so maybe. Obviously it is a value play at 12-1, as the Frankel filly will be even money.

[Scav]

Watch out for Carla in this race. Carla's horse should get a great trip in this race. I can never bet any of Glen Stute's horses, he just seems too needy for money and rushs the crap out of horses. I also don't think there is enough speed for Cobalt Blue, could be nice as the 1 will probably be 4/5. Unless he freaks, which is possible (I think you would have seen him earlier if he was going to the TC though) then this horse has a great shot at 4/1 or better

[Scav]

Race 2:

1,4/4,6/4,5,6 $12, play it a couple times.....

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Scav

Watch out for Carla in this race. Carla's horse should get a great trip in this race. I can never bet any of Glen Stute's horses, he just seems too needy for money and rushs the crap out of horses. I also don't think there is enough speed for Cobalt Blue, could be nice as the 1 will probably be 4/5. Unless he freaks, which is possible (I think you would have seen him earlier if he was going to the TC though) then this horse has a great shot at 4/1 or better

I just realized that I am touting the chalk but Can This Be True looks like he'll jump right out of the gate and wire this field. He won't be racing against 21 2/5, 43 4/5 pace here.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by pick4

I just realized that I am touting the chalk but Can This Be True looks like he'll jump right out of the gate and wire this field. He won't be racing against 21 2/5, 43 4/5 pace here.

Stute couldn't train a cat, that horse was gutted from his MSW two back, then he ships to FL, and then runs back in 20 days, then ships back to California, and works him in 46

While I agree with you that he is speed, Carla's horse will be right there and will hopefully blow right by him, I see G.Stute's horse as a fading 3rd....

The beauty of racing, we all have our opinions.......Good luck

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

thanks for the detailed analysis Scavs, very nice....and I agree with you on Dynamatic but I would of liked to see her going 1 mile for her first two turn experience and then moving up to 9f, but she has the running style and breeding to love the distance. I am interested in the #1 Mabadi which is the Shulman GB import. Her race in Sept looks impressive and CNak takes the call. May need more ground but at 12-1 she is worth a play. Believe it or not, I also will use the #2 The King's Lass at 12-1 as well, as her last race at 1 mile is just too short for her and had a 3 wide/5 wide trip....and again 12-1. So I am using the 1,2,7,8. Not interested at all in White Aura and Fun Logic.

I agree with you on The King's Lass, I just looked at her sheet and she could be monsterous....I might be rethinking Dynamatic and mabe boxing three horses.....

What is great about this race is that Gomez HAS to ride for Frankel in this situation, my guess is that. Not knocking the horse but all the action will be focuses on that combo, and in a race this contentious, it is 'make money time'

[Rootdog1]

sweet, that is the beauty of sharing on this board!!! What do the sheets have for the 6th. Looking at the #3, #4 and #5. Has the #4 improved each of its 3 starts? How does the last race (wide/wide) trip look compared to the #3? THANKS

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Scav

Stute couldn't train a cat, that horse was gutted from his MSW two back, then he ships to FL, and then runs back in 20 days, then ships back to California, and works him in 46

While I agree with you that he is speed, Carla's horse will be right there and will hopefully blow right by him, I see G.Stute's horse as a fading 3rd....

The beauty of racing, we all have our opinions.......Good luck

The turn around is quick from a cross country trip. I was looking at the timing of the works. I take the time with a grain of salt. A lot of these times are bogus. I see Street Lights as the only one who can soften him up should Espinoza choose to chalenge him.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

sweet, that is the beauty of sharing on this board!!! What do the sheets have for the 6th. Looking at the #3, #4 and #5. Has the #4 improved each of its 3 starts? How does the last race (wide/wide) trip look compared to the #3? THANKS

I might be taking tomorrow off work or getting sick around 2pm my time.....I absolutely LOVE the card tomorrow at SA.

In the 6th, I love the 7, LOVE the 7, probably playing the late pick three

6,7/2,4,8/2,4,10 about 4 times and maybe with the 10 only on the end a couple more.

as for your horses, not sure what to think about the 3, the 4 paired his last, both times he was way wide. He could improve. Not a fan of the 5 at all. 6 is fastest. 7 is gradually improving and should get a monster top soon. What I also love about him is that he is getting back to the dirt, after two cushions/ambitious stakes race, people might ignore that and only look at those last three

[Rootdog1]

Typo, didnt mean the #5 ment the #6. Thanks for the info, and yes I am a FAN of this card....looks like $ to be made!

[Scav]

Definition of impossible

I might play a cheap pick four ticket in this race singling the 15, maybe

15/6,7/2,4,8/10

[Scav]

We need Scuds on this thread....I have a feeling he has a couple opinions tomorrow, especially in that hill race...

[Rootdog1]

So you are not concerned about the West Point owned comebacker, Cambria Breeze #3, in the 8th.....Dollase and T. Baze hook up here - same as your single in the 5th. I always like to see the trainer and jock combo stick for races later in the card.....kinda looks like they have some live ones.

I just cant use a Knapp first timer (CR Deelites), he is 0 - 29. I kinda like the #8 Fuego De Luna in the 8th....beat the #10 on Dec 29th when 4 wide and then has been away with only one published work. Scary no name connections though. Also, look at the #12 Touching Noses for the never dangerous Sam Semkin with Danny Sorenson up. Poorly Bred but does have some flashy works, specially that Dec 24th 6f in 1:11 and 3. But did have a big gap in works from Jan 6th to Jan 27th....prob not a good sign.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

So you are not concerned about the West Point owned comebacker, Cambria Breeze #3, in the 8th.....Dollase and T. Baze hook up here - same as your single in the 5th. I always like to see the trainer and jock combo stick for races later in the card.....kinda looks like they have some live ones.

I just cant use a Knapp first timer (CR Deelites), he is 0 - 29. I kinda like the #8 Fuego De Luna in the 8th....beat the #10 on Dec 29th when 4 wide and then has been away with only one published work. Scary no name connections though. Also, look at the #12 Touching Noses for the never dangerous Sam Semkin with Danny Sorenson up. Poorly Bred but does have some flashy works, specially that Dec 24th 6f in 1:11 and 3. But did have a big gap in works from Jan 6th to Jan 27th....prob not a good sign.

both the 5th and 8th are very hard races which is why I can't nuts with a pick four ticket(even though I like a prices in both middle legs which is why I am pounding the late three and taking a flyer on a $6-$12 p4 ticket, just in case I am in the zone). WPS's horse: I am not using because a) after a performance like that, no reason to top to lowest level Maiden claimers there (I think it is the low level) and b) if Nak would have thought she had a shot, he would have stayed on. You don't toss Nakatini to get Tyler Baze in this spot

As for using Knapp, it is more of a using a firster just in case situation there. I like the 2 a little bit sheet wise...I do think the 10 is the most likely winner