Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab - Page 5

Grits · #81 03-08-2007, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by estreetposse

You are both betting $2 on a 10-1 horse to WIN. For s**ts and giggles, let's call him the 10 horse.

Now one of you is also betting $2 to place on the 10,

and the other is betting a $2 exacta: Favorite/10

Is this correct or am I still confused from reading this 3x?

Yep, still confused.

Payson Dave · #82 03-08-2007, 10:31 AM

I'm pretty sure that your understanding of the question is correct...now we need to see which strategy is better...(makes you more money)

Quote:

Originally Posted by estreetposse

You are both betting $2 on a 10-1 horse to WIN. For s**ts and giggles, let's call him the 10 horse.

Now one of you is also betting $2 to place on the 10,

and the other is betting a $2 exacta: Favorite/10

Is this correct or am I still confused from reading this 3x?

If you both like the 10, why not take another $2 to put on top o' the fav.
I know its Monopoly $$$ on here but what would you do in the real world?

estreetposse · #83 03-08-2007, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

No the original arguement was what was a better strategy in betting. Say you like a horse 10-1. Will you make more money over time betting the horse to win/place, or betting the horse to win and then betting the horse underneath in an exacta with the favorite in the race.

So if I make these bets every race over the course of the meet, Which bet will turn the highest $$$?

estreetposse · #84 03-08-2007, 01:43 PM

Thought so, Thanks!!!

SniperSB23 · #85 03-08-2007, 03:16 PM

Sorry if I missed this but how are you handling cases when the top two horses are both over 10-1? Are you counting the place money for both horses and counting it as two races in the sample? Presumably the best place payouts for a longshot will occur when another longshot is in the top two with it.

blackthroatedwind · #86 03-08-2007, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Sorry if I missed this but how are you handling cases when the top two horses are both over 10-1? Are you counting the place money for both horses and counting it as two races in the sample? Presumably the best place payouts for a longshot will occur when another longshot is in the top two with it.

Yes...any horse that is over 10-1 and finishes first or second counts. There are two possible examples in any race.

randallscott35 · #87 03-08-2007, 06:01 PM

DAY ONE MARCH 8, 2007

Gulfstream: Race 6-- Grits: 24.40 RS: 31.80
Race 8-- Grits: 39.80 RS: 50.00
Race 9-- Grits: 38.20 RS: 55.00

Aqueduct: Race 1-- Grits: 14.00 RS: 6.50
Race 7-- Grits: 36.60 RS: 48.80

Santa Anita: Race 5--Grits: 26.60 RS: 37.80

DAY ONE FINAL: Grits- 179.60 RS: 229.90
Total Races: 6

paisjpq · #88 03-08-2007, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

DAY ONE MARCH 8, 2007 Mods you can now move this to the Contest Forum--Thank you

thanks for the permission there chief...you might want to ask me nicer in future.

randallscott35 · #89 03-08-2007, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paisjpq

thanks for the permission there chief...you might want to ask me nicer in future.

Huh, I thanked the mods on the front end and the back end of the thread. VT cold getting to you.

paisjpq · #90 03-08-2007, 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Huh, I thanked the mods on the front end and the back end of the thread. VT cold getting to you.

saying thank you does not mean that the order wasn't a tad on the rude side.

randallscott35 · #91 03-08-2007, 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paisjpq

saying thank you does not mean that the order wasn't a tad on the rude side.

You have to be kidding me, but I didn't mean it that way at all.. Leave it in the Paddock then, I was simply moving it so it didn't clutter up the main board. Jesus people are touchy on this board. WTF

Antitrust32 · #92 03-08-2007, 06:44 PM

counting the win bets takes away from this report in my opinion.

should just be

$2 Place vs $2 Straight exacta (fav over the 10-1 and over shot)

randallscott35 · #93 03-08-2007, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

counting the win bets takes away from this report in my opinion.

should just be

$2 Place vs $2 Straight exacta (fav over the 10-1 and over shot)

Anti, that's what it is. They cancel each other out. I'm just using both to give an accurate representation of the total you would get back had you done 2WP vs. the other way.

Antitrust32 · #94 03-08-2007, 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Anti, that's what it is. They cancel each other out. I'm just using both to give an accurate representation of the total you would get back had you done 2WP vs. the other way.

thats fine.... you are off to a good start

randallscott35 · #95 03-08-2007, 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

thats fine.... you are off to a good start

Maybe, I actually think I'm going to lose. Watching some of the probables in exacta payouts, it will be close. Not nearly as confident as yesterday. Grits and I have a small wager on this to be paid up in Toga. As Beth and Kev can attest, whenever I bet one person I lose.

Antitrust32 · #96 03-08-2007, 06:55 PM

yeah, i personally feel that you will lose.. no offense

but you got off to a good start!

Antitrust32 · #97 03-08-2007, 06:56 PM

but hey... win or lose this is still very informative and maybe will change the way you wager to get a better ROI

randallscott35 · #98 03-08-2007, 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

yeah, i personally feel that you will lose.. no offense

but you got off to a good start!

None taken. LOL, its for fun after all.

randallscott35 · #99 03-08-2007, 07:47 PM

Complete day one standings now posted.

Side Note: A thought. When two 10-1 horses or higher finish 1-2 we are assuming that we both have the winner. Technically we should rotate each time that happens, b/c the place bet will be higher or lower depending on which horse over 10-1 we actually had...Maybe it all comes out in the wash. I guess it will b/c we will just keep on assuming that we both have the winner.

Grits · #**100** 03-08-2007, 08:10 PM

RS, I'm going to say this ONE MORE TIME ONLY.

This study is not about/or to include ANY win wager, NONE. Don't show a thing about wins or win payouts. Forget that completely. The study is about the following: Money wagered to place on a longshot verses money wagered on, instead, a straight exacta play.

Randall: Betting $2. on a longshot at 10/1 or better. And posting the place figure paid out only.

Grits: Betting a $2 straight exacta with the chalk on top and the longshot at 10/1 or better underneath. If my horses don't run 1-2. I get nothing.
************************************************** ****

The races that need viewing are races where:

(1) chalk has won and a longshot at 10/1 or better has run underneath.

(2) where a longshot at 10/1 or better has won the race and we are using the place payout.

(3) where a longshot at 10/1 or better has run second, and again we are using the place payout.

Is anyone misunderstanding the study, or the wagers? If any of today's results shows win amounts remove them, please. They are not inclusive to the study, and therefore confusing.

Now, what am I missing, anything? Randall, Andy, help me out ok.