Early Derby bet thoughts.....

[IrishofNDMan]

I was thinking about what kind of bets I am going to place on this years Kentucky Derby, and here are my early thoughts. I do not think CQ will win the race, but I think he will def. hit the board. If I was to bet right now, I would key CQ in 2nd and 3rd. Any thoughts on what you guys are thinking, I know it is awhile away, but this is just for fun.

[ArlJim78]

Its a bit early for me to get serious about who I'm playing.

Need to get through the serious preps first.

With three weeks to go is about when I'll start trying to put together potential wagering scenarios.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Its a bit early for me to get serious about who I'm playing.

Need to get through the serious preps first.

With three weeks to go is about when I'll start trying to put together potential wagering scenarios.

Are you serious? That early? So this is just after the Florida Derby, and prior to Bluegrass Stakes?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Grits

Are you serious? That early? So this is just after the Florida Derby, and prior to Bluegrass Stakes?

After the Bluegrass Stakes, which if memory serves me is three weeks out.

YES I am serious, that early!

[Grits]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

After the Bluegrass Stakes, which if memory serves me is three weeks out.

YES I am serious, that early!

BGrass is on the 14th, second weekend of the meet. About a month out.

I don't look, seriously, until the week before, during the works at Churchill.

[randallscott35]

Way way too early to talk about a Derby bet. Wait till the April preps.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Grits

BGrass is on the 14th, second weekend of the meet. About a month out.

I don't look, seriously, until the week before, during the works at Churchill.

I start the roughing in process much earlier. I first start really trying to separate the field down into groups, potential winner(s), potential to hit the board, and toss out candidates. During this time I spend a lot of time watching replays and trying to identify the stronger prep races.

I look at how I might want to construct super or tri tickets, and what horses might crash the tri/super at big odds.

With a 20 horse field there are just so many combinations that its a big chore to find a way to fit my budget.

During the final days before the derby I start to focus on the surrounding races to see what kind of pick4's or pick three's I might want to play.

Of course all the while this is continuously subject to modification even up to the morning of the derby considering how the track played on Oaks day.

So thats why I start early because if I wait until the final week to start my planning there is just too much to do.

[k9styl94]

Zanjero, will be the one beat.
He has the finishing kick for the mile & a quarter, especially if Gomez takes mount in the derby.

I'm putting 20 dimes on the monkey

[the_fat_man]

I got a brand new pair of rollerskates

you got a brand new key

(very informative thread)

for the trifecta:

ALL/No Biz Like Show Biz/ALL

THe way I got it figured is I really cant be sure who will win and I dont want to get beaten by a longshot on the trifecta especially since it will be worth even more with him in it and if CIrcular Quay or Ravel or someone like that wins I dont want to look back and not have him..Then on the place it's got to be No Biz as he has as much speed as anyone and seems to be able to get 10f, but if he gets tested by anyone serious in the lane he will goof up and not win it...Then on the show, I really cant be sure about any of these although Zanjero might be a mortal lock but then again you dont want to get bitten by a Jazil or someone like that so....

I figure I got most possibilities covered and if someone like Stormello beats me for the place then he beats me what the hell...

[hockey2315]

Horses I think can win over Horses I think can win plus a few others who can get second over Zanjero, Circular Quay