Beyer Fig from Saturday

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I am interested to see what a few other figure makers come up with for the blue grass.

Equibase gave it a 110 which is about a 98-100 Beyer equivalent.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Equibase gave it a 110 which is about a 98-100 Beyer equivalent.

They have Curlin running a 122 I guess.

[ArlJim78]

Bris gave Curlin a 102.

they gave Dominican a 98, identical to his Rushaway victory.

:...he thinks he may have actually gotten it right"

This quote of Beyer has been mentioned twice. What is the significance?

DOes Beyer sometimes put out numbers he feels are wrong? Do some numbers come with asterisks if they are not particularly sure? I just dont get the significance of his endorsement, his figs are supposed to be correct according to his system. Yes?

[10 pnt move up]

If the Tampa bay race is a bit fast on the numbers then that figure is not to out of line.

problem is what do you use to gauge SS ability

he has a perfect trip figure in the BC, another perfect trip in teh Tampa off a layoff, and then this crap on the weekend. I mean to mee he is probably good for a 100 beyer or so, where does that put him, right in the middle with everyone else and at 5/1 or so no thanks.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Bababooyee

Which is/was more deceiving?

Sinister Minister's 116 in '06

Or

Street Sense's 93 in '07


Maybe Beyer just likes to muck the Derby waters with "odd" figs for the Blue Grass... Who is he foolin!?!? When's the last time a BG winner went on to win the Derby!?!?

Sinister Minister's figure was accurate....he took advantage of an insane inside-speed bias and won by a pole. One of the horses beaten double digits returned to run 2nd in the KY Derby at giant odds, and later win the Haskell. Another horse beaten double digits in that race took the Super Derby and Dwyer.

Street Sense was by no means impressive in the Blue Grass. He barely beat Tufelsburg, who couldn't stay straight through the lane, and was passed from behind by winner Domincan. If Great Hunter doesn't get sawed off, you have five horses finishing within a half length of each other.

I realize very little can be learned from the Blue Grass---however, if Street Sense really was a dominant horse, and really ran such a big race at age 2 over the track like some suggest, shouldn't he have taken that race?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Street Sense was by no means impressive in the Blue Grass. He barely beat Tufelsburg, who couldn't stay straight through the lane, and was passed from behind by winner Domincan. If Great Hunter doesn't get sawed off, you have five horses finishing within a half length of each other.

I realize very little can be learned from the Blue Grass---however, if Street Sense really was a dominant horse, and really ran such a big race at age 2 over the track like some suggest, shouldn't he have taken that race?

When the fav for a race works 6 seconds slower than his previous work in his final work I take all further results with a grain of salt

[JDank34]

agree with Cannon. SS has 2 very big positives in his corner. first, Carl Nafzger knows exactly where he is with this horse and will have him happy and ready in 3 weeks. Secondly, on May 5th he gets to walk right out of his stall and race on a track he definately loves.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

When the fav for a race works 6 seconds slower than his previous work in his final work I take all further results with a grain of salt

Because he was "under-trained" coming into the race---or because you think it's possible the horse isn't right?

I never get too caught up in workout times....certainly not to say they don't matter in certain situations though.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by easy goer

:...he thinks he may have actually gotten it right"

This quote of Beyer has been mentioned twice. What is the significance?

DOes Beyer sometimes put out numbers he feels are wrong? Do some numbers come with asterisks if they are not particularly sure? I just dont get the significance of his endorsement, his figs are supposed to be correct according to his system. Yes?

It is NOT a quote from Beyer.....it is a quote from ME.

[VOL JACK]

Andy, where were U today on ATRAB?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Andy, where were U today on ATRAB?

The same place I am about to be on this forum.....not on.


See the good posters here ( yourself included ) after the insanity of the Triple Crown has blown over.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Because he was "under-trained" coming into the race---or because you think it's possible the horse isn't right?

I never get too caught up in workout times....certainly not to say they don't matter in certain situations though.

Times usually arent that signifigant unless they are extremes. I was watching SS work the other day and he broke off in a canter but was rolling in the stretch. Carl seemed very satisfied which leads me to believe that he was not really tuned up for Sat's race. A work that slow for a horse of that calibur is hardly an effort. I'd guess his pre derby work will be a little sharper. We'll see.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It is NOT a quote from Beyer.....it is a quote from ME.

You might want to be careful with your pronoun agreement in the future, another guy was confused as well. But thanks for clearing that up, makes sense now..

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Times usually arent that signifigant unless they are extremes. .

This sounds rather obvious, but Im sure you didn't mean it that way.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Andy, where were U today on ATRAB?

Andy is now moved to Wednesdays until Belmont opens...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Times usually arent that signifigant unless they are extremes. I was watching SS work the other day and he broke off in a canter but was rolling in the stretch. Carl seemed very satisfied which leads me to believe that he was not really tuned up for Sat's race. A work that slow for a horse of that calibur is hardly an effort. I'd guess his pre derby work will be a little sharper. We'll see.

I'm sure it will be atleast a little sharper. However, wouldn't the same line of reasoning also apply in the case of Curlin?

Street Sense's four furlong work in 1:04 flat was the 38th fastest of 39 to work the distance that morning---that proceeded a five furlong 58.40 bullet work.

Curlin came into the Arkansas Derby off of a four furlong work in 50 4/5th seconds. The 45th fastest of 46 to work the distance that morning. He worked a bullet six furlongs in 1:12 flat in his prior work.

FWIW, Street Sense also had a moderate four furlong in 51 flat maintenance breeze three days before his return in the Tampa Derby.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by easy goer

You might want to be careful with your pronoun agreement in the future, another guy was confused as well. But thanks for clearing that up, makes sense now..

I REALLY appreciate the grammar lessen. I mean, who knew that on a horse racing message board I could learn so many diverse things, and from someone as giving as yourself. Lord knows your contributions here are vast and widely felt. Whereas some people come to a room like this and only usurp the knowledge spread by others, you just keep giving and giving, teaching and teaching, and I for one am grateful for this opportunity to learn from you. I only hope that one day I will be able to return your gift of knowledge with some small crumb from my rucksack of life.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I REALLY appreciate the grammar lessen. I mean, who knew that on a horse racing message board I could learn so many diverse things, and from someone as giving as yourself. Lord knows your contributions here are vast and widely felt. Whereas some people come to a room like this and only usurp the knowledge spread by others, you just keep giving and giving, teaching and teaching, and I for one am grateful for this opportunity to learn from you. I only hope that one day I will be able to return your gift of knowledge with some small crumb from my rucksack of life.

I subsequently brought this up and was not confused at all. Andy (Blackthroatedwind) Serling said that Beyer (Andy Beyer) felt that he got the number right. So, don't worry, I was not confused, your pronoun agreement was satisfactory.

NT

[Thoroughbred Fan]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I REALLY appreciate the grammar lessen. I mean, who knew that on a horse racing message board I could learn so many diverse things, and from someone as giving as yourself. Lord knows your contributions here are vast and widely felt. Whereas some people come to a room like this and only usurp the knowledge spread by others, you just keep giving and giving, teaching and teaching, and I for one am grateful for this opportunity to learn from you. I only hope that one day I will be able to return your gift of knowledge with some small crumb from my rucksack of life.

While I think your pronouns were OK, lesson is not spelled "lessen".

Main Entry: 1les·son
Pronunciation: 'le-s&n
Function: noun
Etymology: Middle English, from Anglo-French leçon, from Late Latin lection-, lectio, from Latin, act of reading, from legere to read -- more at LEGEND
1 : a passage from sacred writings read in a service of worship
2 a : a piece of instruction b : a reading or exercise to be studied by a pupil c : a division of a course of instruction
3 a : something learned by study or experience <his years of travel had taught him valuable lessons> b : an instructive example <the lessons of history> c : REPRIMAND