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  #1  
Old 04-17-2007, 11:24 AM
ceejay ceejay is offline
Detroit Race Course
  
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Oklahoma City
Posts: 289
Default My Derby throw-outs
No names yet, just conditions. Throwing out horses who:
  • Do not have their top or second top Beyer last out.
  • Have BSF descending by > 5 points from second last to last out
  • Did not start as a 2yo
By my count none of the last 14 winners met any of these criteria. I may also require a BSF >99 on the PP line: That was only broken by Giacamo in the last 14 KD's.
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  #2  
Old 04-17-2007, 11:27 AM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
Hialeah Park
  
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Albany, NY
Posts: 6,086
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ceejay
No names yet, just conditions. Throwing out horses who:
  • Do not have their top or second top Beyer last out.
  • Have BSF descending by > 5 points from second last to last out
  • Did not start as a 2yo
By my count none of the last 14 winners met any of these criteria. I may also require a BSF >99 on the PP line: That was only broken by Giacamo in the last 14 KD's.
Looks like you are tossing the two favorites right off the bat.
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  #3  
Old 04-17-2007, 11:40 AM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
  
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
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Here are possible Derby runners who won't be on any of my tickets....

Belgravia
Circular Quay
Cowtown Cat
Liquidity
Officer Rocket
Stormello
Teuflesburg
Tiago
Zanjero

Here are the Derby runners who'll be used only lightly, and only in the 3rd and 4th place positions of some of my exotics.

Chelokee
Domincan

The following will be lightly used...but may appear in the 1st and 2nd slot in one or two of my exotic tickets.

Nobiz Like Shobiz
Sam. P.
Scat Daddy
Street Sense

The following three will appear in all my exotic tickets.

Curlin
Hard Spun
Great Hunter

And Any Given Saturday is my pick to win the race, and who I intend to key in each of the top three slots of my exotic tickets.
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  #4  
Old 04-17-2007, 11:47 AM
ceejay ceejay is offline
Detroit Race Course
  
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Oklahoma City
Posts: 289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Looks like you are tossing the two favorites right off the bat.
If Curlin beats me as a 7/2 or so favorite, so be it. I won't take those odds to break a 14+ or actually 125 year trend. I remember Bellamy Road.

I also think that the second choice, Street Sense will be underlaid at ~9/2.
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  #5  
Old 04-17-2007, 01:29 PM
smuthg's Avatar
smuthg smuthg is offline
Woodbine
  
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Springfield, MO
Posts: 1,010
Default
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Here are possible Derby runners who won't be on any of my tickets....

Belgravia
Circular Quay
Cowtown Cat
Liquidity
Officer Rocket
Stormello
Teuflesburg
Tiago
Zanjero

Here are the Derby runners who'll be used only lightly, and only in the 3rd and 4th place positions of some of my exotics.

Chelokee
Domincan

The following will be lightly used...but may appear in the 1st and 2nd slot in one or two of my exotic tickets.

Nobiz Like Shobiz
Sam. P.
Scat Daddy
Street Sense

The following three will appear in all my exotic tickets.

Curlin
Hard Spun
Great Hunter

And Any Given Saturday is my pick to win the race, and who I intend to key in each of the top three slots of my exotic tickets.

Looks like you've got it all figured out to me...
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  #6  
Old 04-17-2007, 02:07 PM
Java Gold Java Gold is offline
Pimlico
  
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 63
Default
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Here are possible Derby runners who won't be on any of my tickets....


Belgravia
Circular Quay
Cowtown Cat
Liquidity
Officer Rocket
Stormello
Teuflesburg
Tiago
Zanjero

Here are the Derby runners who'll be used only lightly, and only in the 3rd and 4th place positions of some of my exotics.

Chelokee
Domincan

The following will be lightly used...but may appear in the 1st and 2nd slot in one or two of my exotic tickets.

Nobiz Like Shobiz
Sam. P.
Scat Daddy
Street Sense

The following three will appear in all my exotic tickets.

Curlin
Hard Spun
Great Hunter

And Any Given Saturday is my pick to win the race, and who I intend to key in each of the top three slots of my exotic tickets.
I wish for 10 minutes on May 5th I could transform into a betting window in front of you...

Java OUT
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  #7  
Old 04-17-2007, 02:10 PM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
Del Mar
  
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 5,403
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I REALLY wanna toss Curlin. . . but. . . I am almost positive that he's the most talented horse in the race, and I think he MAY have the immense amount of talent it would take to overcome a severe lack of foundation/experience. . . 7/2 is making it easier for me to toss him though. . .
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  #8  
Old 04-17-2007, 02:36 PM
Mortimer's Avatar
Mortimer Mortimer is offline
Thistley Downs
  
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 21,864
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smuthg
Looks like you've got it all figured out to me...

He thought he had tether ball figured out,too.
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  #9  
Old 04-17-2007, 02:49 PM
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SentToStud SentToStud is offline
Arlington Park
  
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 4,065
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Java Gold
I wish for 10 minutes on May 5th I could transform into a betting window in front of you...

Java OUT
That's fairly classless of you.

You must still be pissed off about Cobalt Blue. How'd you do there?
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  #10  
Old 04-17-2007, 02:52 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
  
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,936
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SentToStud
That's fairly classless of you.

You must still be pissed off about Cobalt Blue. How'd you do there?
When I read that post I couldn't help but think of the line from " Positively 4th Street "....


Yes, I wish that for just one time
You could stand inside my shoes
You'd know what a drag it is
To see you
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  #11  
Old 04-17-2007, 02:55 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
  
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,936
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Java Gold
I wish for 10 minutes on May 5th I could transform into a betting window in front of you...

Java OUT

I wish you booked all his bets.
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  #12  
Old 04-17-2007, 07:48 PM
JJP JJP is offline
Gulfstream Park
  
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,220
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Teufelsberg is even money to run dead last.
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  #13  
Old 04-17-2007, 08:02 PM
Cajungator26's Avatar
Cajungator26 Cajungator26 is offline
Keeneland
  
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Hossy's Mom's basement.
Posts: 10,217
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JJP
Teufelsberg is even money to run dead last.
I don't think he'll run last... I can see him finishing 8th or 9th maybe, but not dead last.
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  #14  
Old 04-17-2007, 08:59 PM
JJP JJP is offline
Gulfstream Park
  
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,220
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At 10 furlongs, I say there's a very good chance Teufelsberg is a DNF. He went 1:16 and change and was staggering like a drunk near the wire in the Blue Grass. I hope those connections spare the horse the misery and do the right thing: keep him sprinting.
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  #15  
Old 04-17-2007, 09:05 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
  
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,936
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
I don't think he'll run last... I can see him finishing 8th or 9th maybe, but not dead last.

I'll take under for $50K please.
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  #16  
Old 04-17-2007, 09:11 PM
POINTGIVEN1985 POINTGIVEN1985 is offline
Gulfstream Park
  
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,236
Default
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Here are possible Derby runners who won't be on any of my tickets....

Belgravia
Circular Quay
Cowtown Cat
Liquidity
Officer Rocket
Stormello
Teuflesburg
Tiago
Zanjero

Here are the Derby runners who'll be used only lightly, and only in the 3rd and 4th place positions of some of my exotics.

Chelokee
Domincan

The following will be lightly used...but may appear in the 1st and 2nd slot in one or two of my exotic tickets.

Nobiz Like Shobiz
Sam. P.
Scat Daddy
Street Sense

The following three will appear in all my exotic tickets.

Curlin
Hard Spun
Great Hunter

And Any Given Saturday is my pick to win the race, and who I intend to key in each of the top three slots of my exotic tickets.

call me crazy, and im sure alot of you will, but im hoping belgravia runs huge this weekend and then goes to the derby, because with his style i truly belive he could have a impact on the race.....by a impact i mean make the superfecta
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  #17  
Old 04-17-2007, 09:16 PM
Rudeboyelvis Rudeboyelvis is offline
Belmont Park
  
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 7,440
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DrugS,

What has Sam P. done to endear himself to you in such a manner as to include him with three of the actual contenders? In my eye, the only thing he has proven is that he is a very nice allowance quality horse that can't get the job done in stakes company.
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  #18  
Old 04-17-2007, 09:21 PM
brianwspencer's Avatar
brianwspencer brianwspencer is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
  
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 4,894
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
You're crazy
Well, since Storm in May is the Derby winner, we can just stop all of these discussion right here and now. Get with the program DH.
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  #19  
Old 04-17-2007, 09:25 PM
Cajungator26's Avatar
Cajungator26 Cajungator26 is offline
Keeneland
  
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Hossy's Mom's basement.
Posts: 10,217
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I'll take under for $50K please.
Hmmm... how many horses can finish last? You gotta pick one. Storm in May or Teuflesberg?
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  #20  
Old 04-17-2007, 09:26 PM
POINTGIVEN1985 POINTGIVEN1985 is offline
Gulfstream Park
  
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,236
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
You're crazy
the more i look at all the contenders the more i see overated flawed horses...
belgravia has tons of talent, he showed it beating notional in his second career start.

Overated/flawed list...in my opinion

Sam p
Circular Quay
Any Given Saturday
Cowtown Cat
Dominican
Zanjero
Liquidity
Curlin
Stormello
Scat Daddy..... thats potentially half of the field that i feel is not good enough to win/ therefore i think belgravia could run big
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