5/5: Churchill-Derby Day (Carryover)

[Kasept]

Tough Oaks day card was made more complicated by track/turf conditions Friday resulting in steady stream of surprise horses in various mutuel slots and a second carryover ($200,000+) into Derby Day.. No end in sight to the poor weather either, so it may be more of the same this 'First Saturday in May'..

Failure of Leparoux to get up with 14-1 top tab Gem Sleuth, (arriving late and missing by a head in Friday's 6th), was the difference between getting out whole and a downer on the afternoon.. Fiery Pursuit's upset toppled the P4 as well.. Let's tee it up again on what is a mediocre Derby Day card..

CHURCHILL DOWNS -- DERBY DAY

5th: Churchill Downs (Gr. II), 4+, 7f (P6, P3)

1. #3 Will He Shine 5-1
2. #9 SCR
3. #4 Ah Day 5-1

SCR ADD: #8 Moon's Halo 20-1


6th: Distaff Turf Mile (gr. III), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3)

1. #5 Quite a Bride 4-1
2. #4 SCR
A. #2 Rich Fantasy 12-1
B. #1 SCR

SCR ADD: #6 Magnificent Song 3-1


7th: La Troienne (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 7.,5f (P3, P4)

1. #3 Silverinyourpocket 9-2
2. #5 Appealing Zophie 3-1
A. #7 Total 6-1
B. #10 Tessa Blue 8-1


8th: Humana Distaff (Gr. I), F&M-4+, 7f (P3)

1. #1 Pussycat Doll 2-1
2. #2 Shaggy Mane 10-1
A. #4 Leah's Secret 12-1
B. #8 Wildcat Bettie B 8-1


9th: Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Gr. I), 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3)

Leaving out Better Talk Now who gets his turf course but isn't great off breaks.. OK for multi-race plays..

1. #6 Einstein 4-1
2. #1 Brilliant 12-1
A. #2 Icy Atlantic 7-2
B. #8 Milk It Mick 5-1


10th: Kentucky Derby (Gr. I), 3yo, 10f (P3)

See complete write-up: http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12790

1. #7 Street Sense 4-1
2. #18 Any Given Saturday 12-1
A. #8 Hard Spun 15-1
B. #16 Circular Quay 8-1

LONGSHOTS/EXOTICS ADDS:

#3 Zanjero (30-1)
#19 Dominican (20-1)


<$100 P6 Play:

5: 3
6: 2-5
7: 3-5-7-10
8: 1-4-8
9: 1-6
10: 7

1x2x4x3x2x1 = 48 x $2 = $96


Good luck!
Steve

[golfer]

Steve, as I wrote in my selections, Einstein's last 2 races were HUGE, do you think he's a lock here, or does he react to those?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by golfer

Steve, as I wrote in my selections, Einstein's last 2 races were HUGE, do you think he's a lock here, or does he react to those?

Grass horses do not 'react' to big efforts like dirt horses, and have much longer runs of sustained form as well.. Helen Pitts is perhaps the best lesser-known trainer in the game, knows this horse inside out and knew this was his target immediately following the stunning effort in the Munoz.. He'll be ready for a Gr. I effort..

A soft or yielding course adds some mystery to the situation of course, as Better Talk Now lives for boggy sod but usually needs a race after vacationing.. Brilliant licks his chops for rain as well, and Howard's hedgehog is perfect in three tries this lawn anyway. Look set for big try at bonus tote, with '06 Kent BC score as his model for success.. Icy Atlantic is underlaid at 7-2 ML and is an unknown, to me, with cut in the ground.. Biancone's 20-1Euro ex-pat Danzon relished it soft in Gay Paree '05-'06..

A good edition of this important race..

[golfer]

Thanks, Steve.. Using all you mentioned UNDERNEATH Einstein this looks like a "sack grab" race.

[AeWingnut]

I don't know if there is a track bias at Churchill this week.
I'm looking at the 4th race and think #9 Sentry is an include in the exotics at 30-1. He likes to lead and has worked ok. I am absolutely certain it's the tasty M/L that has swayed me. Should manage to upset someone's trifecta.

[Kasept]

Scratches affect P6 suggestion.. Revised above.. Still $96..

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

good luck steve , great job as allways....................delete delete..lol

[Rudeboyelvis]

P6

R5) 3,4
R6) 5,6
R7) 3,5,7
R8) 1,9
R9) 1,6
R10) 2,6,7,8,12,14,18

2x2x3x2x2x7 = 336x$2 = 642.00

Best of Luck everybody

[Bigsmc]

Small stab:

5 - 4,6
6 - 6
7 - 5,7,10
8 - 1,2,9
9 - 6
10 - 7,16

$72
GL

[ALostTexan]

Well, sorry ya'll got burned on the opening leg. GL on hitting the 5/6...

ALostTexan

[Kasept]

Inside appears best part of track through 5th.. Off-pace runners on outside struggling to cut into leads in these last four straight sprints.. With Derby the first two turn race on card, there will be no opportunity to see affect on routes, but expect those trying to swing out for the stretch drive in the feature will be hard pressed to catch leaders.. Additional thoughts?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Inside appears best part of track through 5th.. Off-pace runners on outside struggling to cut into leads in these last four straight sprints.. With Derby the first two turn race on card, there will be no opportunity to see affect on routes, but expect those trying to swing out for the stretch drive in the feature will be hard pressed to catch leaders.. Additional thoughts?

See the same thing....track is drying out and may change by post time but inside is place to be right now!

[Rudeboyelvis]

You gotta be S@#$!NG me....

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

You gotta be S@#$!NG me....

Cornelio cost us that race. One of the worst rides i've seen. Guy should be fined for not using the horse down the stretch.

[declansharbor]

I will be "quaying" CQ in all three spots... Went waaayyy wide in pick 3 and 4's...Much luck to all playing today...

[declansharbor]

Steve,

Has a horse ever won the derby shy of his 3rd birthdate???

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Steve,

Has a horse ever won the derby shy of his 3rd birthdate???

Sure.. Several.. Last I recall is Thunder Gulch... You must be thinking about Scat Daddy or Hard Spun.. Both turn three next week... Dominican turned 3 yesterday..

[gilbertjump]

Any late day suggestions?

[declansharbor]

My heart hasn't commenced beating yet after being nipped at the wire by Sky Conqueror..Sickening..Went two deep here and 7 in the derby...Unbelievable

[on a suuny day]

The Great Northern Dancer was foaled May 27th 1961