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#1
05-30-2007, 09:42 AM
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5/31: 'Official' BEL $262k P6 Thread
Belmont's turn on Thursday with $260K+ Pick6 Carryover. 5 of six legs on Turf will certainly make it interesting...
I still need to do some additional digging on firsters... Happy to hear any thoughts on this sequence as we attempt to navigate. Good Luck! 
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#2
05-30-2007, 09:55 AM
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that pretty much takes me out, turf is great but 5 races is just more then my skill level on that surface.
__________________
"To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize"...Voltaire
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#3
05-30-2007, 11:31 AM
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Currently thinking the 1/1a entry is a single candidate in 7th.
Whateverwillbwillb broke maiden off the layoff last spring at BEL. Could be tough here picking up JV for 2007 return. Turf Beyers from last year seem a notch above rest. Like the works over BEL Turf course. Could sit stalking trip with plenty of pace in here. Entry mate Classic Expression is no slouch either going 2nd off Layoff for Serpe. Has 2 wins at distance and gets Prado. Showed Improved effort 2nd off last layoff up at Saratoga.
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#5
05-30-2007, 11:40 AM
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#6
05-30-2007, 11:50 AM
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This is a brutal sequence. There isn't a single horse in this sequence that I'd really feel comfortable standing alone on.
A third carryover to Friday? Not impossible...
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#8
05-30-2007, 12:00 PM
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The Friday card is only slightly more manageable.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#9
05-30-2007, 12:10 PM
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I don't see a single opportunity on this card.
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#10
05-30-2007, 12:20 PM
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brutal sequence
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#11
05-30-2007, 12:27 PM
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4th: Taking the Tiger looks like the horse to me, but a single in the opener? 5th: A sinkhole after the 6/8, and crying out for a surprise winner.. 6th: A turf sprint as the single? Maybe.. Just 'Justy'? I'm not close to a structure in the 7th, 8th or 9th.. Andy Serling and Seth Merrow on the Show tonight (5:00 and 5:30) to go through the card...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#12
05-30-2007, 12:54 PM
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Race #5
Anyone have first turf and first start numbers for Kingmambo (Miss Poison)? Turf works and pretty gaudy trainer #'s. First Turf numbers for Broad Brush (Impressionism)? Like the improvement on Poly. Thanks!
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#13
05-30-2007, 01:02 PM
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preliminary p6 thoughts
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5th: sinkhole is right. Probably have to use Mott's Winsome Ways (2-1) in addition to the 6 & 8...dismissing either Tagg's Miss Poison (9-2) or firster Street Party (6-1) will be difficult to do.. 6th: Justy (9-5) burned my $ last out but should go better tomorrow in back-to-back sprint scenario; got a hankering Violette's Baletti (10-1) will be good on the cut back and freshening; 7th: Flying Zee entry (2-1) looks best to me; Flightofthepelican (8-1) could very well relish surface switch for Schosberg; 8th: can make legitimate winning case for nearly all; tepid choice is KMc's Makderah (Ire) who should go better 2d start off bench under JR; 9th: Astoria Sweetheart (2-1) and Clearly a Thrill (3-1) look pretty obvious for inclusion purposes but too often the obvious don't win the $35KMCl events; Albertrani firster Katnik (4-1) may go well and wouldn't have to be much.
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#14
05-30-2007, 01:05 PM
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Kingmambo has hit about with 10% of his debuters in a 235-horse sample and with about 13% of his first time turfers in a 199-horse sample... Broad Brush has hit with 12% of his first-time turf runners in a 373-horse sample.
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#15
05-30-2007, 01:06 PM
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The problem with taking a stand as a single is you're asking her to do two new things (turf, route) and one of my 'single' rules in the pick 6 is nothing 'new' (i.e., distance, surface, trainer, equipment, etc. jockey switch is ok if positive)
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#16
05-30-2007, 01:19 PM
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for a couple a bucks i'm takin a shot. ya may get lucky.
just perusing the brisnet prime power ratings per race race 4 - pick em race 5 - 5, 6 have a 9 pt edge over the field race 6 - Justy, 9, looms 20 pts over the field race 7 - pick em race 8 - 4 has a 12 pt edge race 9 - 9,10 have a 11 pt edge over the field * a 10 or more pt edge is considered significant. Last edited by sumitas : 05-31-2007 at 04:51 PM.
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#17
05-30-2007, 01:30 PM
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BRIS has Broad Brush at 14% T and 11% 1st T. Shug at 12% 1st T (48 race sample)
What appeals about her is the strong late pace figs in the debut and the most recent race. I'm tossing the innder tube debacle, assuming something went awry that day as she didn't run again for 4 mos, w/no training til March 16. She's a factor here. This is a brutal sequence. With a small bankroll, I may try to single Justy but Hushion's firster in there (My Michael) is a worry. Prado from the rail on a War Chant colt.
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#18
05-30-2007, 01:37 PM
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Of course, This is coming from the same guy that tossed Surf Town in the first leg of of the monster HollyPark P6 
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#19
05-30-2007, 01:49 PM
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Winsome Ways is almost single-able IMO
__________________
@BDiDonatoTDN
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#20
05-30-2007, 01:51 PM
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Linear Mode
