Commentator is back

Racing on Wednesday....
here is the link from DRF.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/76321.html

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Racing on Wednesday....
here is the link from DRF.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/76321.html

Cool!..Here is another horse that could add significant intrigue to this year's BC Sprint if Zito doesn't get wacky and stretch him out again....I think he would have won the BC Sprint last year had he not run the poor little horse in the second race when he faced Saint Liam going long last year....After he beat him the first time I remember telling a cooworker that, "Crap, now that he won going long by getting loose on the lead that Zito will ruin him keeping him long when this horse's best shot at a BC win would be in the Sprint."...sure enough I was right....he is just a small horse and is so fast that having that poor little bastard go 1 1/8-miles is not at all right for him...

[blackthroatedwind]

Welllllllllllll, I wish he had run in the Forego after the Whitney last year as well, and....whatever.

I just hope he runs well tomorrow and then we can worry about what the right races are. Whichever they may be, this is a SERIOUS racehorse.

[ateamstupid]

Classic tweener.

Insanely fast horse, but not quick enough to beat the six-furlong specialists, and doesn't have enough stamina to win the Classic.

This is why we need a BC Dirt Mile more than any other race. For the 7-8 panel horses like him, Pico Central, Forest Danger, Love of Money, etc.

[blackthroatedwind]

How can you say he's not quick enough to beat the supposed 6F specialists.

He has a TON of speed, unlike an Aldabaron, and would hardly be badly outrun in, say, the BC Sprint. Do you honestly believe he wouldn't be MUCH closer than Taste of Paradise who arguably was the winner of the BC Sprint last year?

And, yes, he also has more speed than Silver Train.

What he really needs to do is stay sound.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

How can you say he's not quick enough to beat the supposed 6F specialists.

He has a TON of speed, unlike an Aldabaron, and would hardly be badly outrun in, say, the BC Sprint. Do you honestly believe he wouldn't be MUCH closer than Taste of Paradise who arguably was the winner of the BC Sprint last year?

And, yes, he also has more speed than Silver Train.

What he really needs to do is stay sound.

I agree...I think he can be a legit BC Sprint horse, especially now that he's older and probably more mature....he just needs to be able to relax and rate somewhat against horses that will carve out a faster first quarter than him (unless he hooks them early and then he will be deadmeat), but this horse has displayed insane speed and has shown that 1:08 is very attainable with his speed on a consistent basis.....I think he was classy enough to stretch out under the right scenario last year, but there is no way that I think he is just a 'tweener'...I think 6 furlongs in teh BC Sprint could be right up his alley in November...

I think he wins the BC Sprint, but watch out for Rumspringa.

[ateamstupid]

You're telling me he can run with Henny Hughes, Too Much Bling, Lost in the Fog, Anew and the rest of them for six furlongs? I don't think so. There's a reason he's never been shorter than seven furlongs and a reason they keep trying to stretch him out. He's not a six-furlong horse.

[Gander]

I agree Ateam. While Commentator has tons of speed going longer, that doesnt necessarily translate into making the lead in 6F sprints when you have horses like Anew & Lost in the Fog who can run 21 and change.
I think his best races would come at 7F or 1 mile. I do think he could have won the Forego last summer had he run in it. Big difference between 6F and 7F races, especially the Forego and the BC Sprint.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You're telling me he can run with Henny Hughes, Too Much Bling, Lost in the Fog, Anew and the rest of them for six furlongs? I don't think so. There's a reason he's never been shorter than seven furlongs and a reason they keep trying to stretch him out. He's not a six-furlong horse.

First of all, if the Commentator of last year was lining up against the four horses you just named the only one who MIGHT be a shorter price is Lost in the Fog. I suggest you take a serious look at his pps as from what you are posting it doesn't feel like you have really looked at them.

He didn't run in the BC Sprint in 2004 because he had just started racing and he didn't race in it last year because he was hurt. They do not " keep trying to stretch him out ". They stretched him out for the Donn for the first time and he subsequently came up with an injury. When Nick asked me my opinion about whether or not he should run him in the Whitney last year ( I only mention this because he thanked me in the winner's circle after the race both to the press and ESPN ) I pointed out that they didn't know if he could stretch effectively because it wasn't clear if he was injured in the Donn and he didn't exactly embarrass himself that day in light of the lightning fast pace he set. Therefore, it seemed like as good a time as any to find out, especially because there was really only one genuinely good horse to beat.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

First of all, if the Commentator of last year was lining up against the four horses you just named the only one who MIGHT be a shorter price is Lost in the Fog. I suggest you take a serious look at his pps as from what you are posting it doesn't feel like you have really looked at them.

He didn't run in the BC Sprint in 2004 because he had just started racing and he didn't race in it last year because he was hurt. They do not " keep trying to stretch him out ". They stretched him out for the Donn for the first time and he subsequently came up with an injury. When Nick asked me my opinion about whether or not he should run him in the Whitney last year ( I only mention this because he thanked me in the winner's circle after the race both to the press and ESPN ) I pointed out that they didn't know if he could stretch effectively because it wasn't clear if he was injured in the Donn and he didn't exactly embarrass himself that day in light of the lightning fast pace he set. Therefore, it seemed like as good a time as any to find out, especially because there was really only one genuinely good horse to beat.

Pretty funny that you say that, because I've had his past performances open in Acrobat since last night and have been glancing at them a lot the last 12 hours.

What I see is a horse who's never been shorter than seven furlongs and has only run one race (The N3X win last year) that suggests he's got six-furlong speed. I see a horse who has started the year sprinting twice, and stretched out to nine furlongs both times. I see a horse who has never passed another horse in any of his wins and would UNDOUBTEDLY need to do that to win the Sprint.

Your point about LITF being the only one potentially shorter priced seems pretty irrelevant. So because people would bet on him (mostly just because he has high figures), that means he'd have a shot in the BC Sprint?

[blackthroatedwind]

The odds actually are pretty much a perfect ( less takeout of course ) interpretation of horses' actual chances of winning over time.

He actually had only one start last year before trying the Whitney.

I think you need to not only take a good look at his speed figures but also look at them relative to the horses you have mentioned. This horse is in a different league than some you mentioned.

I understand 6F is a question, but considering his running style and raw talent it is FAR from out of the question. One thing I would liketo see, and you brought this up, would be a win while rating. If he can successfully sit a couple lengths off horses, and he is as good this year as last, he won't just win the BC Sprint...he will drown them.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

First of all, if the Commentator of last year was lining up against the four horses you just named the only one who MIGHT be a shorter price is Lost in the Fog. I suggest you take a serious look at his pps as from what you are posting it doesn't feel like you have really looked at them.

He didn't run in the BC Sprint in 2004 because he had just started racing and he didn't race in it last year because he was hurt. They do not " keep trying to stretch him out ". They stretched him out for the Donn for the first time and he subsequently came up with an injury. When Nick asked me my opinion about whether or not he should run him in the Whitney last year ( I only mention this because he thanked me in the winner's circle after the race both to the press and ESPN ) I pointed out that they didn't know if he could stretch effectively because it wasn't clear if he was injured in the Donn and he didn't exactly embarrass himself that day in light of the lightning fast pace he set. Therefore, it seemed like as good a time as any to find out, especially because there was really only one genuinely good horse to beat.

Ooops, didn't mean to criticize Zito stretching him out, I guess ....Sorry, but I never liked that little horse going long at all....I see the mentality behind it do to the fact that they were short Gr. I fields with only one legit horse to beat - But, I think we all knew that Commentator would be a BC Sprint candidate before he was a BC Classic candidate, and that late in the year I didn't want to see him jeopardized going that long against a tough horse like Saint Liam...I reallt had him pegged as the BC Sprint winner and that is why when I following him late last year I was disappointed to see him go long for such a little horse....Even if he would have beat Saint Liam again, I really had serious reservations about him holding up on a fast pace and winning the BC Classic...I didn't see it happening....and if they would have run him in the BC Sprint, I just didn't like the fact that he would be turning back in that quick of time to have him dead ready and sharp to be ready for his best at 6 furlongs against the fastest horses in the world.....I just didn't agree with the decision process but I could see why he did it....he was clearly thinking more for the short term than long term (or two months down the road for the BC)...

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The odds actually are pretty much a perfect ( less takeout of course ) interpretation of horses' actual chances of winning over time.

Did I just read that right?

[blackthroatedwind]

I don't know. If you think it is wrong then perhaps you didn't.

How extensive a study of this have you done?

[blackthroatedwind]

I think he's a better sprinter as well. That does not, however, preclude stretching him in the right situation. It seems the most important thing is finding a way to keep him sound. If he's sound he has all the ability in the world.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think he's a better sprinter as well. That does not, however, preclude stretching him in the right situation. It seems the most important thing is finding a way to keep him sound. If he's sound he has all the ability in the world.

I agree...he is a talented little devil

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't know. If you think it is wrong then perhaps you didn't.

How extensive a study of this have you done?

I guess it must be hard to find false favorites then, considering the odds of a horse are the perfect indicator as to what that horse's chances of winning are..

As a matter of fact, why even run the race? Let's just see how the public bets, then divide the purse accordingly!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I guess it must be hard to find false favorites then, considering the odds of a horse are the perfect indicator as to what that horse's chances of winning are..

As a matter of fact, why even run the race? Let's just see how the public bets, then divide the purse accordingly!

You should think about both the post you are responding to and your response before making snide answers.

Maybe you should REALLY reread what I wrote. What I said was " The odds actually are pretty much a perfect ( less takeout of course ) interpretation of horses' actual chances of winning OVER TIME.

I could be snide, and nasty, as well, and my response would make a lot more sense. But I won't be....yet. I will simply say that you are wrong and learning and understanding this will help you as a horseplayer.

I would like to see him tune up with a nice 6 furlong race. I would then like to see him go long in his final BC prep. Then enter him in the BC Sprint--boy that turn back in distance angle will be HUGE for me in handicapping the sprint this year.