1st week of Del Mar/Poly

2Hot4TV · #1 07-22-2007, 09:56 PM

I got lucky and hit a big super on Friday, but I will stop and watch the rest of the meet. I never thought I would say "I can't wait till Fairplex opens".

Finding winners has got alot harder and it will take time to find the real trends.

letswastemoney · #2 07-22-2007, 09:59 PM

Fairplex is tough because not every horse likes a 5 furlong oval.

Honu · #3 07-22-2007, 10:13 PM

I have a theory , Im not a gambler but from watching the races on the Poly at Del Mar you need to be looking at the horses that run consistant fractions of twelve , horses that run twelves for the eigths but cant catch the front speed are the horses that seem to be doing the best . I would stay away from the speed trainers like Baffert and Headley and some of those other guys, their horses are going to have to be a hell of alot fitter to be competetitive on this surface .

onebadbeast · #4 07-22-2007, 10:25 PM

the good news is they have fixed the horse breakdown problem. bad news is, now the people are breaking down.

2Hot4TV · #5 07-22-2007, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Honu

I have a theory , Im not a gambler but from watching the races on the Poly at Del Mar you need to be looking at the horses that run consistant fractions of twelve , horses that run twelves for the eigths but cant catch the front speed are the horses that seem to be doing the best . I would stay away from the speed trainers like Baffert and Headley and some of those other guys, their horses are going to have to be a hell of alot fitter to be competetitive on this surface .

I have been looking at the horses cutting back in distance (regardless if they appear to be just a router) and dropping in class.

I will watch the 12 second furlongs. Thanks

King Glorious · #6 07-22-2007, 10:38 PM

One thing they were saying on TVG that I thought was some good info was about horses coming in rested being at a big disadvantage. There used to be a thing where some trainers would kind of back off at the end of Hollywood to gear up for Del Mar but these horses are coming up short it seems this year.

PPerfectfan · #7 07-22-2007, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

One thing they were saying on TVG that I thought was some good info was about horses coming in rested being at a big disadvantage. There used to be a thing where some trainers would kind of back off at the end of Hollywood to gear up for Del Mar but these horses are coming up short it seems this year.

Yes I have noticed that also. That and horses need works over the track. Hey J, have you noticed horses being more tired than you thought they should be after working on it for the first few times?

Danzig · #8 07-23-2007, 07:11 AM

good luck figuring this out...i struggled at arlington, but then again, had never played it before. did manage one super all day--shame tho it wasn't the biggie--paid over 12k for the dime super. i, uh...well, i hit the one that only paid a couple hundred.

2Hot4TV · #9 07-23-2007, 07:29 AM

I'm guessing that the horses don't have a good feel and don't really get a good hold of the poly and use more stablizing muscles to keep balance and thus come up empty. Then again the rail in the paddock is as close as I get to a race horse.

2Hot4TV · #10 07-23-2007, 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Fairplex is tough because not every horse likes a 5 furlong oval.

The cheaper races are very formful.

SlewsMyHero · #11 07-23-2007, 07:32 AM

It appears to me that the sprints are pretty fair, but the routes are being dominated by closers. It doesn't seem to matter how fast or slow they go up front, case in point, a classy runner like Buzzards Bay runs a comfortable 1/2 in :49.2 and stops at the top of the stretch. Conditioning is very important on this surface.

JJP · #12 07-23-2007, 08:45 AM

They've got a real kickback problem. Watch the AP races and you see very little. At Dmr, those horses and riders behind the leaders have to be choking to death.

Honu · #13 07-23-2007, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP

They've got a real kickback problem. Watch the AP races and you see very little. At Dmr, those horses and riders behind the leaders have to be choking to death.

Actually I talked to a bunch of those jocks , Gryder , Espinoza , Solis , MC Baze and they said its very minimal (the kickback) , that it doesnt fly up as high as dirt and that its more like a light spray.

Honu · #14 07-23-2007, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PPerfectfan

Yes I have noticed that also. That and horses need works over the track. Hey J, have you noticed horses being more tired than you thought they should be after working on it for the first few times?

Some of them are getting tired , the one's who arent quit ready to run and the fatter ones , which is the way its supposed to be , I like the fact that the horses are going to have to be fitter to run on it , less of a chance of them getting hurt if they are 100% fit.

JJP · #15 07-23-2007, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Honu

Actually I talked to a bunch of those jocks , Gryder , Espinoza , Solis , MC Baze and they said its very minimal (the kickback) , that it doesnt fly up as high as dirt and that its more like a light spray.

Maybe its not like dirt clods hitting them in the face but it is really noticeable. Still, given a choice, I'd be more wary of synthetic fibers getting into my lungs than regular dirt.

jpops757 · #16 07-23-2007, 11:23 AM

One of my early take , is be aware of the trainers that train the fitness in and the ones that race the fittness into. Quick retun to the races almost always a positive, even wit a lackluster previous performance. We always use the term a prep race for a larger stake race. I think the lower tier horses are using the same theory and using rices to get the fitness. Of course one week is a short sample. The real trends will be evident after the fact. Above all the track appears to be very fair even with some of the monster pays. Most of the bigpaying horses can be identified in the form afterward if we were smart enough to find it.

Honu · #17 07-23-2007, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP

Maybe its not like dirt clods hitting them in the face but it is really noticeable. Still, given a choice, I'd be more wary of synthetic fibers getting into my lungs than regular dirt.

But dirt tracks arent just dirt , there are chemicals that they put in the material also, I rode races on the east coast for a few winters and they put alot of stuff on the surface to try and keep it from freezing.
I can remember waking up the next morning after riding on an off track and still blowing dirt and stuff out of my nose and having grit in my mouth even after brushing and rinsing my teeth.
We had a horse a couple of years ago here that won a stake in the slop at Santa Anita , he was coughing his head off after the race so we scoped him and the vet said he had half the racetrack in his lungs , the next day his temp went up and about 12 hours later we were putting him on a van to the equine hospital , he got a lung infection and almsot died , he never ran again.
I can only tell you what the jocks who are riding on it tell me, the spray is minimal and they dont seem too worried about it , they are most likely more worried about what they can have for dinner when they are done.

sumitas · #18 07-23-2007, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by onebadbeast

the good news is they have fixed the horse breakdown problem. bad news is, now the people are breaking down.

whodey17 · #19 07-23-2007, 01:18 PM

The kickback at Del Mar fails in comparision to the kickback at Turfway during their winter/spring meet.

I have been watching races on Polytrack and Cushion track all year. Like most people on here have said, the horse you select has got to be in shape. You also need a horse that sustains his/her speed throughout the entire race. Look for horses who have consistance works over the surface. Don't look for a bullet and then a work just to stretch the horses legs. It also appears than favorites win less often on a synthetic track than they do on a dirt track. Like Honu said, stay away from the speed trainers. I also ignore the 2nd and 3rd off layoff angle as well. I want a horse who has been consistanly racing or training.

I still struggle at times with the surface, but I feel as if I am getting better at capping the synthetic tracks.

The Indomitable DrugS · #20 07-23-2007, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SlewsMyHero

It appears to me that the sprints are pretty fair, but the routes are being dominated by closers. It doesn't seem to matter how fast or slow they go up front, case in point, a classy runner like Buzzards Bay runs a comfortable 1/2 in :49.2 and stops at the top of the stretch.

I agree with you. Sprint races play more fairly, but the further they go, the more the advantage is with the off-the-pace plodders...and the more ugly the race is to watch.

I agree about Buzzards Bay as well...he was just loping through a VERY easy half mile through slow fractions....and he finished up like a sniper shot him at the top of the stretch.

I believe that the top two finishers came from last and 2nd to last, into the teeth of that 49 and change rate'em up pace.

I can only imagine what the Pacific Classic will look like. I'd honestly like to see a top class steeplechase horse, who's in very good form, run in a race like the PAC Classic.