Aqueduct - 11/29

pmacdaddy · #1 11-29-2007, 09:30 AM

Sitting on the fence as of now. May roll a pick6 if the 6th race comes off the Turf. If it stays on, maybe a pick4.

P Dave - Saw you were looking for input on a few legs. Which races? Maybe we can draw some guidance from the pros or anyone with an opinion for that matter...

blackthroatedwind · #2 11-29-2007, 10:42 AM

The 4th is ON and the 6th is OFF.

pmacdaddy · #3 11-29-2007, 10:50 AM

BTW - Thanks for predicting that yesterday. Let me focus on the right stuff last night. Although I'm sure it won't help...

I'm leaning toward playing a pick6 focusing on the MTO "Most Charming" in the 6th. Any knocks against her here?

blackthroatedwind · #4 11-29-2007, 11:01 AM

Yes and no. Obviously off her last race she probably towers over the remnants of this race, but her prior efforts aren't enough to justify her very short price, and to trust a horse at that price that is both ex-Bruce Levine ( the hardest guy to claim from in NY ) and off a win in NJ is not something I am willing to do.

Liking her makes it easy, as otherwise it's a cluster****, and pretty much an unplayable sequence. But those are usually the situations where we get ourselves into trouble......the old " I'll just assume this one will win " just doesn't work.

Considering how I feel about the 7th race I probably won't get involved anyway.

pmacdaddy · #5 11-29-2007, 11:14 AM

7th is by far my deep leg with coverage to 4 and a 5th as a cover (which may still not be enough).

Maybe she does seem a bit too good to be true here. I will see about pick6 after scratches and perhaps try to cover her in a pick4 as I will at least get to see the tote.

Tote certainly seemed to be a tip off to Contessa's runner in the 6th yesterday (even though Dirt form looked poor on paper).

See what happens...

Payson Dave · #6 11-29-2007, 12:24 PM

The 8th race is one that has interest to me....
Linda Rice has Noble Fire in there....This filly caught my eye during training hours.
Schwartz's Cape Cod Escape gets a big jockey change...
Dutrow's filly Jovanna had a mdn win that was pretty nice..

pmacdaddy · #7 11-29-2007, 12:48 PM

To me the Dutrow runner (Jovanna) looks pretty scary off the freshening. Think repeat of Toga performance would make her very tough. Although the rider named there seems a bit odd.

I gave Noble Fire high consideration as well as the Jerkins runner.

But I'm a hack, and even at that I'm usually best staying away from 2YO's so I would be interested to see what others think.

Good luck!

Scav · #8 11-29-2007, 12:51 PM

R2 - #9 Eternal Ridge
R8 - #8 Noble Fire

blackthroatedwind · #9 11-29-2007, 01:10 PM

Not only should there have been an inquiry in the second race but the winner should have been disqualified.

Scav · #10 11-29-2007, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not only should there have been an inquiry in the second race but the winner should have been disqualified.

why, I didn't see it

hockey2315 · #11 11-29-2007, 01:14 PM

Andy-

Do you think they'll be on the turf tommorow?

Payson Dave · #12 11-29-2007, 01:18 PM

Race 3 Coa looks to have the lone early speed

Payson Dave · #13 11-29-2007, 01:26 PM

or not...

blackthroatedwind · #14 11-29-2007, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

why, I didn't see it

The " winner " drifted out four paths herding the horse who would have won as he was going by.

Hey, I do it when I play Gallop Racer. I guess these stewards think that's fair. Or else they were at Don Pepi's having lunch.

blackthroatedwind · #15 11-29-2007, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Andy-

Do you think they'll be on the turf tommorow?

At least one though considering there has been no rain since they drew yesterday they should both be on.

PSH · #16 11-29-2007, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

To me the Dutrow runner (Jovanna) looks pretty scary off the freshening. Think repeat of Toga performance would make her very tough. Although the rider named there seems a bit odd.

I gave Noble Fire high consideration as well as the Jerkins runner.

But I'm a hack, and even at that I'm usually best staying away from 2YO's so I would be interested to see what others think.

Good luck!

pmacdaddy agree with your assessment in the feature. Both Jovanna and Noble Fire have good numbers to run back to although Noble Fire did bounce in the last race... Jerkins could move up to a new top and be in the hunt.

Looks like the fave will be tough to beat in the nightcap with the fastest figs by far and the Contessa magic....

PSH

hockey2315 · #17 11-29-2007, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

At least one though considering there has been no rain since they drew yesterday they should both be on.

Thanks

pmacdaddy · #18 11-29-2007, 01:47 PM

Decided to bag the pick6. Try a few pk4 tix instead....

Have a $360 pk6 play mapped out but not confident enough to play it. Guess I will just see how she does and hope the wheels fall off and it Carries again.

blackthroatedwind · #19 11-29-2007, 01:48 PM

I don't see Noble Fire at all. Her second race was horrendous and being that it was six weeks after her debut I don't understand how even if you believe in bounce ( which I don't ) you could suggest that. I think it is more a situation of yet another unreliable 5F race. We've seen many of them.

Jovanna may win, but the scratch helps Palmetto Bluffs and if Jovanna and Palmetto Bluffs go at it then Anlyn can win.

blackthroatedwind · #20 11-29-2007, 01:52 PM

I bet Jambalaya Joy in the 4th. She had a lot of trouble in her last race and is not necessarily worse than the favorites. Hopefully in a reasonably small field the hopeless Jermaine Bridgmohan won't do anything dramatically wrong.