1/16: AQU (C/O-4th/9th)

[Kasept]

Offset losses of disasterous Saturday at Fair Grounds with strong Sunday at Santa Anita keyed by $39.40 Heathersdaddysbaby ('Best Value') and resultant $311.50 tri in the 7th.. Aqueduct and Santa Anita have back-to-back Carryovers of $60k+ and $90k+ respectively Wednesday and Thursday, with the Big A sextet looking especially approachable..


AQUEDUCT

POST SCRATCHES/CHANGES

4th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (P6, P3)

Best Value: #3 Keuka Maid 5-1: Consistant Morrison mare not hopeless.. 3rd
Most Likely: #4 La Mure 7-2: LRL invader from King right alternative.. WON
Next Best: #7 Vilify 3-1: 3rd off break; Stumbled 2 back; Contender.. 8th
Exotics Add: #6 Reyana's Jet 9-2: Has found ALW waters too deep.. 2nd-DQ'd from 1st

$1 Exacta (4-6) $23.90
$1 Trifecta (4-6-3) Paid $95.00


5th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3yo, 6f (P3, G/S)

2 horse race with obvious opportunity to single Asmussen Forestry filly (#2 Jet Setting) that aced debut and had tardy start to last behind good looking Dance Gal Dance. May have picked up rating lesson there, and retains hot Elliott in logical next step. Imposing; #7 I Promise crushed MDN juvy foes at BEL in June before extending Subtle Aly to limit Opening Day at Spa in the Schylerville. Wheels came off in the Adirondack three weeks later and hasn't been seen since. Clear danger if ready..

Most Likely: #2 JET SETTING 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 I Promise 2-1 WON
Exotics Add: #1 Anlyn 4-1 5th


6th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3yo, 5.5f (P4, DD, .10 Super)

Best Value: #6 Dadoway 6-1: Gelding moves inside, adds blinks; Note CC lands below.. 5th
Most Likely: #3 Brookhaven's Money 4-1: Debuts; Best option v. dreadful set.. 6th
Next Best: #4 Seamus Judge 4-1 4th
Exotics Add: #2 Avagardo 5-1 WON


7th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, .10 Super)

No tougher level for me than these types where jump-ups seem to derail multi-race plays often...

Best Value: #8 Keen Spirit 10-1: Cuts back; Leah cold but clicks off claims.. 2nd
Most Likely: #1 Girl Show 4-1: DiPrima 5/15 '1st time trainer'; Back to best surface.. WON
Next Best: #11 SCR
Exotics Add: #7 Bourne First 3-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (1-8) $15.30
$1 Trifecta (1-8-7) $35.50


8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m-70y (DD)

VERY tough OC/ALW..

Best Value: #4 SCR Sub: #3 No Reply 4-1 3rd
Most Likely: #2 (POE) Hurrah 3-1: Beaten neck, nose & 2L last trio.. WON
Next Best: #10 SCR
Exotics Add: #7 Run With the Lark 5-1: Threat on return to best.. 2nd

$1 Exacta (2-7) $18.30
$1 Trifecta (2-7-3) $46.00


9th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m-70y (.10 Super)

Best Value: #2 Stolen Greeting 6-1: Another 'first time' DiPrima.. 6th
Most Likely: #3 Trading Star 8-1: Violette returnee tough in spot if ready.. 5th
Next Best: #9 Game Informer 5-1: Ongoing $700k flop now with Levine.. 10th
Exotics Add: #4 Charlie Caliente 12-1: Not so crazy 2nd off break.. 4th


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 3-4
5: 2
6: 3-6
7: 1-7-8
8: 2-3
9: 2-3-9

2x1x2x3x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


$60 P4 Play:

6: 3-6
7: 1-7-8
8: 2-3
9: 2-3-4-7-9

2x3x2x5 = $60


Good luck!
Steve

[blackthroatedwind]

A couple of things....

the 7th looks like a race that could be changed by scratches ( making it slightly less impossible ) and Game Informer in the last race is a new gelding for whatever it's worth.

[Kasept]

P6 SCRATCHES...


6

1A Karakorum Topcat Early


7

9 Wakeup With Makeup Early
10 That's Our Prize Early
11 Undeniable Queen Early
12 Let Her Be Early
13 Suggestion Lisa Early
14 Devil's Last Dance Early


8

1A Santa's Gold Early
2B Irish Majesty Early
4 Executive Fleet Early
10 Temporary Saint Early


9

1 Galaxy Express Early

[Kasept]

Inquiry... Had La Mure been able to finish at all, she might have a case for getting put up. We'll see.


PUT UP! I'll take it...!

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i had the 6 and feel like it was a good take down.. though painfull

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i had the 6 and feel like it was a good take down.. though painfull

I agree. It was the right decision.

It's one thing to make a judgement on a horse blowing by that wins by five or comes out very late, it's another thing entirely when a horse comes out and bumps another horse, in this case twice, when the other horse is looming outside, and then goes on to win by a couple lengths. If you don't take horses like the 4th winner down you are almost telling the jockeys they can commit fouls and take their chances they sufficiently intimidate their challengers.

The 6 was almost certainly going to win, and would have been a deserving winner, but that was a foul. We've all been taken down in much more marginal situations.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

didnt he get the 4 with the whip also.......and yes it hurts but fair is fair..

[Bobby Fischer]

aque r 6

2 ex 7,2

[Bobby Fischer]

r5^^

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

aque r 5

2 ex 7,2 //WIN$14.20

6-1 aint bad

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

steveo you keep getting burned by the assman on your singles..

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

6-1 aint bad

Not bad at all, a 3/1 proposition on the exacta box was pretty kind in a race that looked like a match race on paper.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

steveo you keep getting burned by the assman on your singles..

I'd submit that it's Contessa doing the burning..

As suggested in the race note, that was an 'either or/both' proposition, and it was more likely that the Contessa filly would be less ready than she was. I Promise needed to be on any expanded play or the most basic backups, and I'm sure she was.