1/25: Aqueduct (6th-9th)

[Kasept]

Terrific trio of races Friday at Aqueduct as part of the late P4, and interestingly, all routes for the Quad including the state bred maiden nightcap. $35k platers start it off, (a group that has made 282 starts collectively amassing $2.1 million in earnings), followed by a pair of top level allowances. Challenging set and weather looks great..


AQUEDUCT

POST SCRATCHES...

6th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f (P4, DD)

9 claimers line up here and not one has earned less than $100,000.. 56 wins totaled amongst this group with average career marks of 31/6-5-4, $237,000.. Super competitive and even the three longest shots on ML can have arguments made for them..

Best Value: #1e Arroyo entry 5-1 WON ($12.00)
Most Likely: #2 Three in the Bag 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Take the Bluff 3-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #6 King Mobay 12-1 6th

$1 Trifecta (1-2-3) $54.50
$1 Exacta (1-2) $22.60


7th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 1m (P3, .10 Super)

Best Value: #7 Gone Goodbye 10-1 8th
Most Likely: #3 Runaway Rosie 5-2 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #1 Belleplaine 3-1 6th
Exotics Add: #9 SCR (Sub: #8 So So Devine 20-1 7th)


8th: OC/N3X, 4+, 8.5f (DD)

Best Value: #7 Greeley's Legacy 5-1 4th
Most Likely: #2 Indian Hawke 7-2 7th
Next Best: #8 Temporary Saint 8-1 WON ($18.40)
Exotics Add: #5 SCR (Sub #6 Kunta Ken 10-1 2nd)

$1 Exacta (8-6) $69.50


9th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m (.10 Super)

NOTE/POST-SCRATCHES: #11 (AE) Post Exchange (2-1) looms large drawing in.. Aided by loss of 3 others moving him into acceptable launch slot..

Best Value: #3 Big Ira Davis 10-1 WON ($23.00)
Most Likely: #11 Post Exchange 2-1 4th
Next Best: #1a Precisely Greg 5-2 8th
Exotics Add: #8 Timber Ferry 7-2 2nd

$1 Exacta (3-8) $63.50
$1 Pick 3 (3/8/3) $299.50
$1 Pick 4 (1/3/8/3) $1,213.00


<$50 P4 Play:

Something of a wreckless play with eye on catching prices..

6: ALL
7: 1-3-7
8: 7
9: 3-11

8x3x1x2 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[blackthroatedwind]

Greeley's Legacy won't be anywhere near 5-1 and in the 9th race, I think it is a mistake to pick the " Schettino entry ", unless you really like the firster, because one must scratch, and I presume it is the 1a you like. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but it's an important distinction.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Greeley's Legacy won't be anywhere near 5-1 and in the 9th race, I think it is a mistake to pick the " Schettino entry ", unless you really like the firster, because one must scratch, and I presume it is the 1a you like. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but it's an important distinction.

Agreed.. on both scores. Originally wrote Schettino as the 1a but figure to wait for Scratches to ammend.

How low do you expect Greeley to go? Doesn't Kiaran figure to get bet a little with Nkosi too?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Greeley's Legacy won't be anywhere near 5-1 and in the 9th race, I think it is a mistake to pick the " Schettino entry ", unless you really like the firster, because one must scratch, and I presume it is the 1a you like. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but it's an important distinction.

I'm not big on Moon's Halo in the 8th and I agree with you that Greeley's Legacy is the "wiseguy" as he's ended up on the top of various analyses. Despite Contessa's barn being a little chilly right now, I don't think throwing HURRAH into the mix in the 8th is that bad an idea. Granted he's lost to inside two recently but both of those races were when each was isolated on the lead and the Silver Prospector race came on a very speed-favoring track. I'm not sure what to make of the short rest but I can't make out much of what Winning Move/Contessa do these days.

NT

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Agreed.. on both scores. Originally wrote Schettino as the 1a but figure to wait for Scratches to ammend.

How low do you expect Greeley to go? Doesn't Kiaran figure to get bet a little with Nkosi too?

Nikosi Reigns has been horrible. Greeley's Legacy could easily be below 2-1 but 5-1 feels to me like the highest. Frankly, anything higher seems suspicious. If he's right, and the race/speed stays intact, he will be extemely hard to beat.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Nikosi Reigns has been horrible. Greeley's Legacy could easily be below 2-1 but 5-1 feels to me like the highest. Frankly, anything higher seems suspicious. If he's right, and the race/speed stays intact, he will be extemely hard to beat.

Don't you thing Greeley's L will be hampered by the post position ? Outside wins haven't been that easy to get here in routes.

[blackthroatedwind]

Dominguez understands saving ground. The post is less of a problem than a possible bias. We'll see how the track is playing.

I'm not personally overly worried because I may not bet. Greeley's Legacy is a superior animal to the horses in this race. If the track is reasonably fair, and it's a reasonably fairly run race, he will win.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Greeley's Legacy won't be anywhere near 5-1 and in the 9th race, I think it is a mistake to pick the " Schettino entry ", unless you really like the firster, because one must scratch, and I presume it is the 1a you like. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but it's an important distinction.

Why MUST one of those scratch? Just curious if there is a rule or something

[zippyneedsawin]

route races have had less of a bias than those 6 furlong sprints at Aqueduct, IMO.

[blackthroatedwind]

Isn't there a rule against entries in Superfecta races in NY. I know there aren't entries in the final race. Not 100% sure the exact rule.

The plain 1, the firster, scratched.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

route races have had less of a bias than those 6 furlong sprints at Aqueduct, IMO.

IMO it's the exact opposite.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

IMO it's the exact opposite.

i'm sure i haven't been following the inner meet as closely as you have, but based on the charts, I don't see it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

i'm sure i haven't been following the inner meet as closely as you have, but based on the charts, I don't see it.

Looking at charts, while not watching races, is a recipe for disaster.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Looking at charts, while not watching races, is a recipe for disaster.

Did Confucious say that?

I'll watch some replays.

[blackthroatedwind]

If not Confuscious, some eastern philosopher.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Dominguez understands saving ground. The post is less of a problem than a possible bias. We'll see how the track is playing.

I'm not personally overly worried because I may not bet. Greeley's Legacy is a superior animal to the horses in this race. If the track is reasonably fair, and it's a reasonably fairly run race, he will win.

agreed.

what do you think about Hurrah in terms of coming back off of 9 days rest, where he had that pinch at the start and had to be hard ridden?
He's not much of a price (at least to open). Normally I would consider a horse like this as a key horse in a trifecta, not sure how he will bounce back...

[fpsoxfan]

Glad I stayed away from the first two races. Chalk and Chalk.

Will it be a total Aquechalk day?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

agreed.

what do you think about Hurrah in terms of coming back off of 9 days rest, where he had that pinch at the start and had to be hard ridden?
He's not much of a price (at least to open). Normally I would consider a horse like this as a key horse in a trifecta, not sure how he will bounce back...

Hurrah only won last time because the second horse got a horrendous ride. As for the short rest.....I can't even fathom a guess how horses from Contessa's barn run from one day to the next.

I suppose he's not impossible but I don't particularly like his chances today.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Looking at charts, while not watching races, is a recipe for disaster.

This is true in the general sense. Not as much when it comes to (speed) biases.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

7 looks pretty good at 6-1 angelic aura cuts back from the mudd try......