How good is Big Brown?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader

What did the tri pay? ESPN cut away for ladies basketball.

$702.80 for a deuce.

[slotdirt]

Big Brown will have to buck the same trend that Curlin couldn't last year and that no other horse has since 90 years ago. I know I won't bet on it happening.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by skippy3481

I'm not saying he will or wont win the derby, but i have a hard time saying horse has no shot at winning a race in 5 weeks after what he just ran. Of course he could come out of the race with a injury, he could not like the churchill track in training etc. It's not like hes going to be 3-5 in the derby.. There are still several grade 1 races left and at least one horse will step out and have a great race. If you dont want to use him in the derby thats fine, but im not tossing horses 5 weeks out.

CHUCK HIM OUT!!!

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Big Brown will have to buck the same trend that Curlin couldn't last year and that no other horse has since 90 years ago. I know I won't bet on it happening.

The competition Curlin faced was also light years better than BB is facing. Not saying you don't have a point but I don't think it's reasonable to toss him based on it.

[ateamstupid]

That was freaking awesome.

He won't be my Derby choice, but I'm not dumb enough to completely toss him.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

That was freaking awesome.

He won't be my Derby choice, but I'm not dumb enough to completely toss him.

Me either... Joey. I'm not sure how people can be tossing horses at this point anyway.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by Scav

He might be a monster, this I don't disagree with BUT he ran absolutely MONSTEROUS, and he could have 90 days off and he won't repeat the effort. My guess is that sheet number is in the -2 to -3 range, which would be a 4pt top. He will be the 5/2 favorite of the KY Derby, and I will be tossing him out of the first three spots.

Wow.

And you're already talking about tossing him out? Will you be so sure if he comes out of this just fine and his connections continue to exude confidence right up to the Derby? I don't necessarily disagree with your logic, but I'm waiting and watching how things develop.

[slotdirt]

Will I use him on my tickets on May 3rd in L-ville? Sure. Do I think he's the winner? No chance, lance.

[Payson Dave]

Looking forward to hearing how BB comes out of the Race...very impressive today but hard to imagine that the effort won't have taken a lot out of a horse who has foot problems....Dutrow didn't seem to want to take much time to talk with J Edwards right after the race...

[slotdirt]

I'll be interested to see the final fractions in particular.

[Bobby Fischer]

you guys do know that no horse has ever come back sound and healthy after winning from the 12 post 9 furlongs GP main track

[Riot]

The race replay is up on Bloodhorse TCM page. Here's the link: http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/index.asp

1/4 22.76 11.28
1/2 45.83 11.46
3/4 1:10:08 11.68
1m 1:35:18 11.89
1 1/8 1:48:16 12.98

My take: Smooth Air looked good at top of stretch, then struggled a bit, but then got straightened out and was closing well and striding out - did have BB in his sights. Probably will get Derby distance fine.

Big Brown ran against nobody, with no real pressure, out front all by himself. Jock knew he had it in the middle of the turn. He was being wrapped up on the last 1/16 (as Smooth Air was indeed closing a bit) No question he'll get Derby distance easily. And he didn't look hard used at all.

Tomicito - may close into 3 or 4th in the Derby.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'll be interested to see the final fractions in particular.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...32908USA10.pdf

[TheSpyder]

Times in 100ths: :22.76 :45.83 1:10.08 1:35.18 1:48.16

Which means by comparision, for what its worth BB would have beaten Shes All Eltish by 18 lengths. The race before was:

Times in 100ths: :24.35 :48.36 1:12.79 1:38.17 1:51.80

With all the talk about the girls beating the boys in times this year this puts another stamp on this race.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

you guys do know that no horse has ever come back sound and healthy after winning from the 12 post 9 furlongs GP main track

how many have come back unsound after winning from post 12 at 9f @gpx. ???

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Scav

First off, as Randy Moss said, there is no guarantee that he is even going to be able to run in the Derby. The horse isn't sound, and you run that huge, it is bound to rattle the joints. I won't be using him at all on Derby Day.....

Me either....few week's ago War Pass was the greatest, now him. Gonna make a great Derby playing against them!

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Scavs we need War Pass to bounce back. Seriously. If we can get some speed to go with him it could blow the Derby up.

Exactly! Epic match up between two speed horses = BIG payoffs on everyone else.

Electrify is faster.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

Times in 100ths: :22.76 :45.83 1:10.08 1:35.18 1:48.16

Which means by comparision, for what its worth BB would have beaten Shes All Eltish by 18 lengths. The race before was:

Times in 100ths: :24.35 :48.36 1:12.79 1:38.17 1:51.80

With all the talk about the girls beating the boys in times this year this puts another stamp on this race.

Big Brown ran a final time that yields a Beyer figure 33 points faster than the Bonnie Miss winner.

If upset winner She's All Eltish ran back to her 90 Beyer she ran last time, that puts Big Brown's figure at a Ghostzapper like 123.

However, it's obvious that the fairly moderate pace of the Bonnie Miss and the extremely fast pace of the Florida Derby had a big impact on the final times.

I just hit the pick 4. Should I act like a huge know-it-all douche right now?