Big Browns breeding?

engine ONE · #1 03-31-2008, 05:39 PM

His breeding is very weak compared to others, but then again I have seen inferior breeding like this step up and run well above the breeding lines. My initial reaction after the Florida Derby was just ok...beating a very weak field on a speed favoring strip. Not sure how he will handle CD and the deep track..

Will be interesting to see his works the week leading up to the Derby..

Curious to anyone's thoughts..

engine ONE

ateamstupid · #2 03-31-2008, 05:51 PM

What, exactly, makes his breeding "very weak"? The fact that he's not by A.P. Indy or Storm Cat or some other six-figure sire? Boundary may not be spectacular, but he throws versatile runners and is by one of the most influential sires of the twentieth century. Mien, his dam, is by Nureyev, hardly a scrap heap damsire..

Gate Dancer · #3 03-31-2008, 06:00 PM

Here's a quote from Steve Haskin's article in the Bloodhorse today.

"Although Big Brown is by Boundary, a sprinter who has sired only sprinters and milers, it must be noted that Boundary is by Danzig, and his dam, Edge, is by Damascus out of the top-class stakes winner Ponte Vecchio, a daughter of Round Table. Big Brown’s dam, Mien, is by Nureyev (by Northern Dancer), out of a Lear Fan (by Roberto) mare. And Big Brown is inbred top and bottom to Damascus, Round Table, and Northern Dancer, giving him a Classic-heavy dosage profile of 4-7-23-2-0 and a 1.67 dosage index, for all those who still follow dosage."

Big Brown may have some better breeding than originally thought. I'm sure Lauren Stitch will have some comments on 'ATR' today in a couple of minutes.

miraja2 · #4 03-31-2008, 06:31 PM

He is not - in my estimation - a horse whose pedigree makes it seem unlikely that he can get 10f.
There is just too much Damascus, Northern Dancer, Round Table etc. in his pedigree to say that his pedigree means he won't like added distance.
Of course....he might not like going 10f anyway. You never really know until they do it, but calling his pedigree "very weak" seems like a bit of a stretch.

- Miraja out.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #5 03-31-2008, 06:51 PM

he got one and an eighth easy enough...

hockey2315 · #6 03-31-2008, 07:49 PM

an extra furlong isn't nothing

The Indomitable DrugS · #7 03-31-2008, 08:01 PM

Hasn't he run enough that making judgements on breeding don't matter anymore?

His sire was a fragile sprinter and his dam was a fragile horse who won her debut at 8.5 on turf than ran on dirt next out and was eased with a career ending injury.

If any judgements are still to be made on his pedigree - they should revolve around him not exactly being bred to be an iron horse who will stay sound and healthy.

Of course he has a speed pedigree - but he's also a fast horse.

In his dirt debut, he stumbled at the start and without being sent was still involved in a 3 way pace battle through fast fractions with a pair of very quick allowance sprinters whom he fractured into finishing last and 2nd to last.

So, he's obviously got true sprinter speed. As far as his stamina - his stride registered 26 feet in length when he worked a 1/4 in 21.20 at KEE April, he has an exceptionally long stride to go along with his raw speed.

philcski · #8 03-31-2008, 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Hasn't he run enough that making judgements on breeding don't matter anymore?

His sire was a fragile sprinter and his dam was a fragile horse who won her debut at 8.5 on turf than ran on dirt next out and was eased with a career ending injury.

If any judgements are still to be made on his pedigree - they should revolve around him not exactly being bred to be an iron horse who will stay sound and healthy.

Of course he has a speed pedigree - but he's also a fast horse.

In his dirt debut, he stumbled at the start and without being sent was still involved in a 3 way pace battle through fast fractions with a pair of very quick allowance sprinters whom he fractured into finishing last and 2nd to last.

So, he's obviously got true sprinter speed. As far as his stamina - his stride registered 26 feet in length when he worked a 1/4 in 21.20 at KEE April, he has an exceptionally long stride to go along with his raw speed.

Agreed, enough already about the pedigree determining his ability at 10F. It's pretty clear to me he's 5 lengths faster than any of the other 3yo's at 9F, which is a lot for the others to overcome in the last furlong. The fragility question would be more reasonable to ask.

hockey2315 · #9 03-31-2008, 09:22 PM

I can't believe people are arguing that since Big Brown got a practically uncontested lead on a speedy track at 9F and didn't seem to have distance problems (i'm not totally sold on that either) he should have no problem with 10F.

RolloTomasi · #10 03-31-2008, 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I can't believe people are arguing that since Big Brown got a practically uncontested lead on a speedy track at 9F and didn't seem to have distance problems (i'm not totally sold on that either) he should have no problem with 10F.

Yes, but he has the rare and elusive "pyramidal" dosage profile, the likes of which hasn't been seen in a Derby contender since eventual winner Sea Hero in 1993...

philcski · #11 03-31-2008, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I can't believe people are arguing that since Big Brown got a practically uncontested lead on a speedy track at 9F and didn't seem to have distance problems (i'm not totally sold on that either) he should have no problem with 10F.

Uncontested lead? He went :45.83 while 5 wide to EARN that lead. The prior race was won from off the pace, as was the race before that, the race before that, and the race before that. Not sure how you see that as speed biased.

Thunder Gulch · #12 03-31-2008, 09:51 PM

Second generation has Danzig and Nureyev which gets you as far as you want to go.

slotdirt · #13 03-31-2008, 09:56 PM

Far, sure, but fast? How many Danzig plodders have we seen out there, Hard Spun notwithstanding, the last few years? Defer comes immediately to mind.

miraja2 · #14 03-31-2008, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

an extra furlong isn't nothing

As far as I am concerned, this is just plain wrong.
There have been hundreds of talented 9f horses through the years who simply want no part of 10 furlungs. The difference in horses' performances going 9f and 10f is often enormous.
Will that be the case with Big Brown? We can't know that at this point, but saying he will have no problem with ten simply because he got nine with no problem is not accurate.
In this particular case, my opinion is that his pedigree is a bit ambiguous, and doesn't really tell us much about whether or not he might like the added distance.

hockey2315 · #15 03-31-2008, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

As far as I am concerned, this is just plain wrong.
There have been hundreds of talented 9f horses through the years who simply want no part of 10 furlungs. The difference in horses' performances going 9f and 10f is often enormous.
Will that be the case with Big Brown? We can't know that at this point, but saying he will have no problem with ten simply because he got nine with no problem is not accurate.
In this particular case, my opinion is that his pedigree is a bit ambiguous, and doesn't really tell us much about whether or not he might like the added distance.

Reread what I wrote. We agree.

ateamstupid · #16 03-31-2008, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

As far as I am concerned, this is just plain wrong.
There have been hundreds of talented 9f horses through the years who simply want no part of 10 furlungs. The difference in horses' performances going 9f and 10f is often enormous.
Will that be the case with Big Brown? We can't know that at this point, but saying he will have no problem with ten simply because he got nine with no problem is not accurate.
In this particular case, my opinion is that his pedigree is a bit ambiguous, and doesn't really tell us much about whether or not he might like the added distance.

LOL, read what hockey said again. I don't think he was speaking in slang.

hockey2315 · #17 03-31-2008, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Uncontested lead? He went :45.83 while 5 wide to EARN that lead. The prior race was won from off the pace, as was the race before that, the race before that, and the race before that. Not sure how you see that as speed biased.

I didn't say "speed biased" I said "speedy" . . . the fractions were fast because the track was fast. It was a VERY impressive performance but I refuse to anoint this horse as the next Slew off of that race. The Derby will be a much bigger test.

miraja2 · #18 03-31-2008, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Reread what I wrote. We agree.

lol.
The double-negative threw me for a loop.

ateamstupid · #19 03-31-2008, 10:10 PM

Nevermind.

RolloTomasi · #20 03-31-2008, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Second generation has Danzig and Nureyev which gets you as far as you want to go.

Despite the odd classic horse, didn't both sires mainly get milers?

In fact, the history of the BC Mile is littered with their offspring (eg. Lure, Zilzal, Miesque, Ad Valorem, Antonius Pius, Brahms, Century City, Della Francesca, Dove Hunt, Dumaani, Furiously, Atticus, Lech, Librettist, Polish Precedent, Good Journey, Spinning World, Wolfhound).