4/4-6 (KEE): Transylvanian/Ashland/Lafayette

[Kasept]

Friday 4/4 -- 9th (5:15) Central Bank Transylvania S. (G3)

1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 1 Riley Tucker Prado E S Mott William I 117 LA 4-1
2 2 Boss Lafitte Albarado R J Amoss Thomas 117 L 8-1
3 3 Barrier Reef Gomez G K bin Suroor Saeed 117 L 7-2
4 4 Prussian Desormeaux K J Mott William I 123 LA 9-5
5 5 Sr. Henry Leparoux J R Stidham Michael 117 L 10-1
6 6 Budge Man Lopez J Gorder Kellyn 117 LA 15-1
7 7 Love Everybody Graham J Cesare William 117 30-1
8 8 Free Fighter Velazquez J R Block Chris M 117 LA 4-1
9 9 Groom's Cat Castanon J L Potts Carl 117 L 50-1



Saturday 4-5 -- 9th (5:15) Ashland S. (G1)

1 1/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 1 Absolutely Cindy Mojica O Kinmon Keith 121 LA 12-1
2 2 Little Belle Maragh R McLaughlin Kiaran P 121 LA 6-1
3 3 African Violet Castellano J J Motion H Graham 121 LA 15-1
4 4 Bsharpsonata Camacho E Salzman Timothy 121 LA 5-1
5 5 Proud Spell Saez G Jones J Larry 121 LA 8-5
6 6 Country Star Albarado R J Frankel Robert 121 L 9-5
7 7 Life Is Sweet Desormeaux K J Mott William I 121 LA 8-1



Sunday 8th -- (4:45) Lafayette S.

7 Furlongs (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Cush Lanerie C J 117 L
2 Bonanza Theriot H J II 117 LA
3 Hatta Fort (GB) Gomez G K 119 L
4 Kodiak Kowboy Bridgmohan S X 123 LA
5 Eaton's Gift Desormeaux K J 119 LA
6 Cape of Storms McKee J 117 L
7 Ling Ling Qi Albarado R J 117 LA
8 Keep Laughing Velazquez J R 117 LA

[favoritetrick]

Impressively strong Ashland even without Eight Belles, though I can see why Porter avoided this race with her. Bsharpsonata is razor-sharp and may offer good value at anything close to her ML.

Anyone else wondering why Barrier Reef showed up here? Moved from Goldolphin's 2nd string to 1st string, shipped to Florida, then shows up on the turf in KY. I imagine Mott is either looking for a potential rained-off-the-turf earnings boost or else prepping strictly for the Preakness. Any thoughts Steve?

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by favoritetrick

Impressively strong Ashland even without Eight Belles, though I can see why Porter avoided this race with her. Bsharpsonata is razor-sharp and may offer good value at anything close to her ML.

Anyone else wondering why Barrier Reef showed up here? Moved from Goldolphin's 2nd string to 1st string, shipped to Florida, then shows up on the turf in KY. I imagine Mott is either looking for a potential rained-off-the-turf earnings boost or else prepping strictly for the Preakness. Any thoughts Steve?

when you say mott ? you mean riley ? i think Prussian is going to be a Star.

[favoritetrick]

Sorry, meant bin Suroor

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by favoritetrick

Impressively strong Ashland even without Eight Belles, though I can see why Porter avoided this race with her. Bsharpsonata is razor-sharp and may offer good value at anything close to her ML.

Anyone else wondering why Barrier Reef showed up here? Moved from Goldolphin's 2nd string to 1st string, shipped to Florida, then shows up on the turf in KY. I imagine Mott is either looking for a potential rained-off-the-turf earnings boost or else prepping strictly for the Preakness. Any thoughts Steve?

Porter didn't avoid the Ashland per se.. Larry Jones has to keep the two seperated, and Proud Spell is much further developed than Eight Belles.

The Barrier Reef move is laughable and hopeless and indicative of why Godolphin can't get it right. Here's a horse that looks ready for prime time on this half-baked Derby Trail season, and they put him in this spot. Even when they get a horse that really might be legit, they can't figure out what to do with him.

Don't know what Mott is thinking with Rile Tucker.. Will ask Haskin on ATR today. Was hoping to get Bill back on the show. Might try for 6:30.

[Bigsmc]

If the Kee rubber is playing the same as it has been in the past, I give 7 - Life Is Sweet a big shot at a price. She has the right running style, second off a 4mo. layoff, 5 works since her Feb 22 race, two turn breeding and Mott/Desormeaux.

Nothing against Camacho and Saez, but I think Alborado and Desormeaux have a huge advantage having ridden previous meets at Keeneland. Their experience edge may be the difference in this race.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

If the Kee rubber is playing the same as it has been in the past, I give 7 - Life Is Sweet a big shot at a price. She has the right running style, second off a 4mo. layoff, 5 works since her Feb 22 race, two turn breeding and Mott/Desormeaux.

Nothing against Camacho and Saez, but I think Alborado and Desormeaux have a huge advantage having ridden previous meets at Keeneland. Their experience edge may be the difference in this race.

Saez is half way decent, he listens to whatever he is told, from what I have heard, that is half the battle with some of these guys

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Desormeaux have a huge advantage having ridden previous meets at Keeneland. Their experience edge may be the difference in this race.

as long as he doesn't pull up 1/16th from the wire thinking he has crossed the finish line already.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by robfla

as long as he doesn't pull up 1/16th from the wire thinking he has crossed the finish line already.

I played him in that race too. Not good.

[herkhorse]

I'll take Boss Lafitte. Amoss at a price is always nice

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I like Riley Tucker in the Transylvania, but apparently prussian is now a hot Derby Prospect, so I'll have to take a closer look.

alright slick rick, lets play your game. what is there to like about riley ? i have looked over this race pp's and in my opinion Prussian lays over this group, maybe barrier reef he is bred to like turf, but i dont see Riley ? why do you like him ?

also i realize there will be no value on Prussian but i am using him as a key in pick 4, so i dont need value in there, i need it in the other 3 races, and i think i have some especially with the 1 1/8 turf race, i dont like gomez at all and hes 9-5 morning line.

[hockey2315]

I'd be careful with Prussian- he's coming off a long lay-off and this is clearly not the objective.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'd be careful with Prussian- he's coming off a long lay-off and this is clearly not the objective.

i do realize that, and its so hard for me because i have been beat with horses like this tons of times before, but i just cant get off.

say my pick 4 ticket is something like this 4*4*1*4, thats affordable, but if i go deeper the Prussian, who i think lays over this group" then what do i do ?

and if not prussian, then who ?

[NTamm1215]

Prussian will be terribly overbet thanks to his two powerful wins on the turf last year. He was able to get away with murder on the front end against a bad group at Saratoga then at Woodbine he benefited from a perfect trip on a baked course against vastly inferior foes. The main thing he has going for him is that there is not one iota of early speed beyond him. Is that enough to take 6/5, even in the Pick 4? That's the question that has to be answered.

NT

[hockey2315]

Personally I'll be playing Barrier Reef at 5-2+. I'm not crazy about them entering here but I think he may just be better than Prussian and I don't think Prussian will be 100%.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Prussian will be terribly overbet thanks to his two powerful wins on the turf last year. He was able to get away with murder on the front end against a bad group at Saratoga then at Woodbine he benefited from a perfect trip on a baked course against vastly inferior foes. The main thing he has going for him is that there is not one iota of early speed beyond him. Is that enough to take 6/5, even in the Pick 4? That's the question that has to be answered.

NT

i am thinking yes, royal pedigree, top notch connections.
i dont know ? like you say only speed ? i dont know.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I don't get Barrier Reef at all. He was and probably should be on the Derby Trail right now, why is he in this race?

I don't love Riley Tucker, but I think he might sit a nice trip, right off of Prussian. I want no part of Prussian at even money and Riley has some siblings who were okay on the turf. I think he might offer up his best race, third off the layoff and I think he is the next most likely after the favorite, who I feel might be vulnerable.

i get it

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Don't know what Mott is thinking with Rile Tucker.. Will ask Haskin on ATR today. .

Sire is a newby, but has 18% first-out turf winners. Riley is half to a SW who was a first-out turf winner, and the dam has had another turf winner as well. If he feels the horse isn't ready for the big boys on dirt yet, a turf career could be viable alternative.

I'm sort of interested in Free Fighter, so long as the turf isn't too wet. Keeneland's turf course is notoriously unkind to front-runners.

[favoritetrick]

Looks like this race is coming off the turf. Everything around here is just one big messy puddle. I was over at the track earlier this morning and word is that that they don't want to risk tearing up the turf course for one race when they have the rest of the meet to think about. Tomorrow and Sunday is looking like 60's and sun.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Sire is a newby, but has 18% first-out turf winners. Riley is half to a SW who was a first-out turf winner, and the dam has had another turf winner as well. If he feels the horse isn't ready for the big boys on dirt yet, a turf career could be viable alternative.

I'm sort of interested in Free Fighter, so long as the turf isn't too wet. Keeneland's turf course is notoriously unkind to front-runners.

Free Fighter caught my eye a bit too as an include.. Who is this horse anayway? That ALW win at Fair Grounds came out of left field...

Originally Posted by favoritetrick

Looks like this race is coming off the turf. Everything around here is just one big messy puddle. I was over at the track earlier this morning and word is that that they don't want to risk tearing up the turf course for one race when they have the rest of the meet to think about. Tomorrow and Sunday is looking like 60's and sun.

Mott actually said on ATR last night that he'd scratch both Riley and Prussian if it had STAYED on the lawn...