W/E BSF's: Blue Grass 92; Arky 103 (!?)

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Tentative Arkansas Derby Beyer a 103 for Gayego and 102 for Z Fortune...

Looks outta-whack high to me..

There is no way it was that high in my opinion. I think the track changed for the last three races.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Danzig

z fortune is from synthetic? since when? he's done his running all spring at fair grounds and oaklawn. my pal charlie last ran at fairgrounds.

and what about adriano? his one start on dirt he was up the track.

there are no hard and fast rules for this stuff. some horses can run on both, some can't. some can go poly to dirt but not many seem to be able to go from a good run on dirt to a good run back on poly-yankee bravo is a good example of that.
then there's tiago-hasn't won a whole bunch in cali has he? but then they put him on dirt, he wins a grade two.

i think pyro was at keeneland because z fortune needed the money, and a placing in a million dollar race gets him in the gate next month. pyro didn't need the money, and the bc classic later his year is on the awt. why not run him there, see what he can do?

Mistake, 4 of the first 5 were from cushion track. There was no way Z Fortune was going to get by the winner.
There is something that is starting to become a rule and its "running and training on synthetics build more wind and put a better foundation in your race horse. That being said doesn't have anything to do with which surface they do thier best running on.
Pyro was on poly to make sure he doesnt get hurt and give him the benifits from training on poly prior to running in the Derby. Odds are Pyro hates running on the stuff.

[Kasept]

CJ,

Previous/Ark Derby.. Can't be..

Gayego: 91-103
Z Fortune: 82-102
Tres Borrachos: 83-94
Indian Sun 79-92

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Kasept

CJ,

Previous/Ark Derby.. Can't be..

Gayego: 91-103
Z Fortune: 82-102
Tres Borrachos: 83-94
Indian Sun 79-92

If I give the race a 103, it bumps the pace up to a 124...yeah, right...no freaking way. I thought Moss did Oaklawn and surely looked at the pace if so. I'm don't know how he could possibly think that is right.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

If I give the race a 103, it bumps the pace up to a 124...yeah, right...no freaking way. I thought Moss did Oaklawn and surely looked at the pace if so. I'm don't know how he could possibly think that is right.

Beyer speed figures do not take into account the pace of the race. The only thing it takes into account is the final time. Then it is assigned a raw number based on the time. The next thing they do is add or subtract depending on what the variant was for the day. Sometimes when a time seems out of line the figure maker will use projection to give the race a number.

If the Beyer fig makers are still using the same speed rating chart as the one in Beyer on Speed, he time of 1:49 3/5 is 106. The final number was assigned a 103 so the variant was a -3 (about 2 lengths slow) , unless the fig maker gave the final number as a projected figure. Not knowing what the other races were assigned figurewise it is hard to tell if projection was used here.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by pick4

Beyer speed figures do not take into account the pace of the race. The only thing it takes into account is the final time. Then it is assigned a raw number based on the time. The next thing they do is add or subtract depending on what the variant was for the day. Sometimes when a time seems out of line the figure maker will use projection to give the race a number.

If the Beyer fig makers are still using the same speed rating chart as the one in Beyer on Speed, he time of 1:49 3/5 is 106. The final number was assigned a 103 so the variant was a -3 (about 2 lengths slow) , unless the fig maker gave the final number as a projected figure. Not knowing what the other races were assigned figurewise it is hard to tell if projection was used here.

You can still use pace though to determine if the track sped up during the day and you need to split the variant. His point was that simply by looking at the pace figures for each race you can see the evidence why the variant should have been split. To suggest the race had a pace of 124 and the two horses on that pace finished 1-3 shows how ludicrous the decision to not split the variant is.

[SentToStud]

Amnyone see a BSF or Rag or TG for the 9th race Turf Sprint at Gulf on Saturday?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by pick4

Beyer speed figures do not take into account the pace of the race. The only thing it takes into account is the final time. Then it is assigned a raw number based on the time. The next thing they do is add or subtract depending on what the variant was for the day. Sometimes when a time seems out of line the figure maker will use projection to give the race a number.

If the Beyer fig makers are still using the same speed rating chart as the one in Beyer on Speed, he time of 1:49 3/5 is 106. The final number was assigned a 103 so the variant was a -3 (about 2 lengths slow) , unless the fig maker gave the final number as a projected figure. Not knowing what the other races were assigned figurewise it is hard to tell if projection was used here.

I know how Beyers are made. I doubt there are 10 people not part of the Beyer group that know more about them than I do.

Most times I agree with them, but this isn't one of those cases. The people making Beyer speed figures do look at pace when making the variant. They aren't using pars for the most part, so they try to figure out what the horses should have run based on history and the way the race set up. This is especially true of Randy Moss because in addition to making Beyers, he makes MOSS pace figures. He puts those pace figures alongside his Beyer number, though he does convert it to the same scale. That number you see next to Moss pace figures is the Beyer, just in a different format.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Tentative Arkansas Derby Beyer a 103 for Gayego and 102 for Z Fortune...

Looks outta-whack high to me..

Note please that this is the tentative number... NOT the final. Final figure has not been issued...

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

Mistake, 4 of the first 5 were from cushion track. There was no way Z Fortune was going to get by the winner.
There is something that is starting to become a rule and its "running and training on synthetics build more wind and put a better foundation in your race horse. That being said doesn't have anything to do with which surface they do thier best running on.
Pyro was on poly to make sure he doesnt get hurt and give him the benifits from training on poly prior to running in the Derby. Odds are Pyro hates running on the stuff.

i don't see how a horse can get a good work from running on poly is he's uncomfortable. he'll run differently, and most likely not extend himself. hey, if it works for some, wonderful. but it's not for everyone, that's the point i'm trying to make-and running well on one won't necessarily translate to running on the other.

[sumitas]

the better horses seem to run well over any surface. so i'm inclined to think Pyro was content to run with the pack yesterday in preparation for the KD.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The Arkansas Derby's figure isn't going to get anyone's heart racing either... Likely 95-96 or so.

And Mike, adjust your thinking away from the masses... The Wood Memorial wasn't 'slow'.

Just because the track was glib means the Wood wasn't slow? I understand that you have to hack a few seconds off of the day's times, but even on a "normal" track, I don't think they would've gone faster than 1:50 and change..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Just because the track was glib means the Wood wasn't slow? I understand that you have to hack a few seconds off of the day's times, but even on a "normal" track, I don't think they would've gone faster than 1:50 and change..

Pace, Joe.. The pace. Just because the two top horses that were tons better than the rest came home 'slow', doesn't mean the race was slow...

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Pace, Joe.. The pace. Just because the two top horses that were tons better than the rest came home 'slow', doesn't mean the race was slow...

Do you really think that the pace on Derby Day will be any better?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Do you really think that the pace on Derby Day will be any better?

I actually think it will be more reasonable.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I actually think it will be more reasonable.

^^^ Ditto..

[bogeydaman]

Originally Posted by Danzig

and what about adriano? his one start on dirt he was up the track.

Although it MAY be true in the long run I would not necessarily say Adriano's up the track finish was due to racing on dirt. He broke from post 12 at Gulfstream and NO ONE wins (let alone runs well) from out there. No one that is.......... but Big Brown.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I actually think it will be more reasonable.

Is ET Baird still riding that Illinois horse and is Bob Black Jack still wearing blinkers? Either of those are going to be bad news for the pace horses, both will be disaster.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by bogeydaman

Although it MAY be true in the long run I would not necessarily say Adriano's up the track finish was due to racing on dirt. He broke from post 12 at Gulfstream and NO ONE wins (let alone runs well) from out there. No one that is.......... but Big Brown.

when you have a horse show such good form on turf and poly, and then a complete reversal on dirt, i don't know what other conclusion can be reached. of course one start doesn't make or break a horse....but i'll be looking elsewhere for a winner on may 3. his trainer even said he's more of a turf horse.

[cmorioles]

It appears 103 is the official Beyer. I hope people believe it.