Pricing the Derby

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

empire maker was the biggest recent favorite i can recall and he was 5-2.

anyone who thinks there is someone in this field with more steam than him going into the 2003 derby is wrong.

bb is talented and will do big things. but 2 horses out of 56 have won off 2 starts at 3 and both of them had more foundation at 2.

my guess is despite street sense last year, people figure this out.

7-2. maybe even 4-1

Weren't Empire Maker's feet his undoing in the Derby? could be the same with Big Brown...

*head explodes*

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Just from stakes winners on the synthetics that are clearly better on it then on the dirt. I'm sure I could find far more if I used stakes placed as well.

Dominican
Panty Raid
Piratesonthelake
Steve's Double
Slew's Tizzy
Christmas Kid
Off Duty
Stream Cat
Danzon
Lewis Michael
Lady Belsara
Silent Name
Mary Delaney
Massive Drama (might be fine in a dirt sprint)
Texas Fever
(spot reserved for Monba)
(spot reserved for Cowboy Cal)


On the contrary I only found three horses that fit the profile of the turf horse flourishing on the synthetics that wouldn't be able to run a step on the dirt that did actually come back to win at similar levels on the dirt:

Asi Siempre
Heatseeker
Spotsgone

Didn't Spotsgone win a Grade 3 at Hoosier last summmer?

The synethic vs dirt conversation is getting crazy tiresome. There will be tons of arguments for both sides of it. It is basically comes down to two things, people either changing their handicapping or not changing, and the fact that it benefits spread players (because of the lack of consistency). And if you play polytrack like you play turf (I contend that cushion, while the results are a little squirrely sometimes, plays like a dirt track alot more then polytrack does) then who gives a ****, handicap it like a turf race and be done with it.

Personally, handicapping is handicapping, surface aint changing that. And I love all surfaces, and quite honestly, I love Polytrack because it is more like turf racing, and I like betting on turf racing, so it fits me well.

You know what else I like about it, some of these guys actually have to TRAIN a horse instead of putting all this damn speed into them and taking advantage of bias. Look at Baffert, where you at now that you actually have to put wind into your horses? I could train on a california old track. "Work the horse 34" and on race day "Get to the rail and GO"

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

Didn't Spotsgone win a Grade 3 at Hoosier last summmer?

The synethic vs dirt conversation is getting crazy tiresome. There will be tons of arguments for both sides of it. It is basically comes down to two things, people either changing their handicapping or not changing, and the fact that it benefits spread players (because of the lack of consistency). And if you play polytrack like you play turf (I contend that cushion, while the results are a little squirrely sometimes, plays like a dirt track alot more then polytrack does) then who gives a ****, handicap it like a turf race and be done with it.

Personally, handicapping is handicapping, surface aint changing that. And I love all surfaces, and quite honestly, I love Polytrack because it is more like turf racing, and I like betting on turf racing, so it fits me well.

You know what else I like about it, some of these guys actually have to TRAIN a horse instead of putting all this damn speed into them and taking advantage of bias. Look at Baffert, where you at now that you actually have to put wind into your horses? I could train on a california old track. "Work the horse 34" and on race day "Get to the rail and GO"

Except in the case of this Derby it is probably the single most important factor to determining the outcome of the race.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Except in the case of this Derby it is probably the single most important factor to determining the outcome of the race.

And every Derby after this, or until Churchill goes synethic, which I doubt will happen.

[HaloWishingwell]

Hey I have an idea since The Breeders Cup are looking for ways to make multiple days of their event and rip more money off our hands.....how about having two separate Breeders Cup days. One on conventional dirt and the other on polytrack.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

And every Derby after this, or until Churchill goes synethic, which I doubt will happen.

By that point I think there will be a lot more information available. It is hardly a topic that has been as well discussed as every other angle in the game. For instance, I had no clue how poor Pulpit's have been on the synthetics until I went and looked it up myself. I didn't realize how good Tiznow has been on the synthetics until someone (I think Drugs) mentioned it on here and I went to look at the data. For other surface switches this sort of info would be well known and readily available on the past performances. For the synthetics there is still a severe shortage of information on the topic as the answer to the question of what is good synthetic breeding is still being learned.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

By that point I think there will be a lot more information available. It is hardly a topic that has been as well discussed as every other angle in the game. For instance, I had no clue how poor Pulpit's have been on the synthetics until I went and looked it up myself. I didn't realize how good Tiznow has been on the synthetics until someone (I think Drugs) mentioned it on here and I went to look at the data. For other surface switches this sort of info would be well known and readily available on the past performances. For the synthetics there is still a severe shortage of information on the topic as the answer to the question of what is good synthetic breeding is still being learned.

This is why the Thorograph are valuable, the full sheets have this very exact information, for both sires AND trainers, and jocks I think.

Asmussen is like 12% on this stuff, 25% everywhere else, although that should change now that he is in Canada this year